weathermedic Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Winds starting to pick up as of 1pm. Gusting to low-mid 30 mph range at the area airports. Dew points mainly in the mid to upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: The level of concern I hold for Wednesday's severe event down south is escalating. This wide warm sector could be accompanied by favorable shear, LRs, moderate forcing, and very favorable surface track. This is a warm sector you should be seeing in April or May, not March. This is getting increasingly worrying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Got dark and very windy. Squall coming in, temp 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Gusting close to 60 mph now in Newburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Very large brush fire w/structures involved in Lakewood, Ocean County. Fire is at a 3rd alarm level. Parkway shutdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gusting close to 60 mph now in Newburgh. I believe it. I'm a few miles away from the airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 52 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: I believe it. I'm a few miles away from the airport Gusting close to 50 mph now on Long Island. Jones Beach N/A 50 N/A N/A NW36G48 Matinecock Pt N/A 48 N/A N/A W41G49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 I can see virga to the north. Wind starting to roar overhead, still fairly calm at the surface, very weird sensation. 55 and mostly sunny. Last rain was 13 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Very large brush fire w/structures involved in Lakewood, Ocean County. Fire is at a 3rd alarm level. Parkway shutdown. small one now in the meadowlands 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: small one now in the meadowlands It probably won't stay small for long with these weather conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 it's definitely growing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 This wind is the real deal. Power was out for a while, it's back up now but keeps flickering. I was out and coming home was going over some big branches, one was big enough I needed to raise the (air) suspension on my Range Rover to get over it without high centering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 There was a sprinkle in New Rochelle, NY a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Do you have any low humidity records for your station? I keep records for just about everything, but not humidity lol...I believe the lowest my station has gotten is around 13%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Umm 49 degrees with light snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Gotten sleet near 50 before but never snow. It was definitely snow lol. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 61 mph peak gust on Long Island. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gotten sleet near 50 before but never snow. It was definitely snow lol. It can happen. I saw it once when I was west of Trois Rivières in Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 36 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gotten sleet near 50 before but never snow. It was definitely snow lol. Rjay you just made Anthony’s day, As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Currently 39 here, had a wind gust of 52 mph earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, doncat said: I keep records for just about everything, but not humidity lol...I believe the lowest my station has gotten is around 13%. I think that 3-30-07 may be the record lowest relative humidity. LGA 1:51 PM 63 F 2 F 9 % EWR 5:51 PM 68 F -5 F 5 % JFK 7:51 PM 64 F 0 F 8 % 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Gotten sleet near 50 before but never snow. It was definitely snow lol. Had a 5 minute burst of snow accompanied by strong wind gusts about 2 hours ago. Temp was 48 when it started. Down to 38 now and still strong wind gusts. No wind damage so far this time; I'm out of cupolas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that 3-30-07 may be the record lowest relative humidity. LGA 1:51 PM 63 F 2 F 9 % EWR 5:51 PM 68 F -5 F 5 % JFK 7:51 PM 64 F 0 F 8 % Yeah did have a 10% reading on the Vantage on that day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Tomorrow will be the coldest day of the week and possibly the coldest day until at least late next fall. Temperatures will tumble into the lower and middle 20s from Philadelphia to New York City and into the teens in some areas outside of those cities. This cold shot following the recent warmth is not unusual. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks and 27% saw the temperature fall below 25°. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. In addition, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Next weekend could mark the start of a new warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Out west, a major to historic blizzard will continue into late tonight or early tomorrow. Cheyenne will likely set its all-time storm total snowfall record. Cheyenne's All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses. The SOI was -2.44 today. The SOI had recently been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.329 today. On March 13 the MJO data was unavailable. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.2° (0.7° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Cheyenne has seen 22.2” snow today. The 22.2” daily snowfall beats the old daily record of 19.8”, which was set on November 20, 1979. The 30.3” storm total surpasses the 25.6” that fell during November 19-21, 1979 to become Cheyenne’s biggest snowstorm on record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 29 here in Brooklyn Very windy I live on the 6th floor and my window is shaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 29 here in Brooklyn Very windy I live on the 6th floor and my window is shaking Wind keeps waking me up. Rattling my windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/48), or about -3.0 to -4 0. All models have a Trace of Snow coming up. GFS goes AN about the 21st. and wants to stay there for the rest of the month. (45/61) from 3/21-3/30. 25*(35%RH) here at 6am. 24* at 7am. ( was 32* at midnight) 28* by Noon. 30* at 1pm. 32* at 2pm. 37* by 4pm. 40* by 5:30pm. 36* by 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 21/-2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Morning thoughts... In 1990, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. This time around, it will feel more like mid-February than mid-March. At 7 am EDT, temperatures included: Albany: 12°; Allentown: 22°; Binghamton: 12°; Boston: 17°; Bridgeport: 21°; Danbury: 20°; Islip: 22°; New York City: 24°; Newark: 25°; Philadelphia: 28°; Poughkeepsie: 20°; Providence: 18°; and, White Plains: 20°. These will likely be the coldest temperatures the region will see until late next fall. Despite strong sunshine, temperatures will top out only in the upper 30s and the lower 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 43° Clouds will increase tonight. It will be mostly cloudy and continued cold tomorrow. A period of light snow could impact the region. Overall, the March 16-19 period remains a period of opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region. A pronounced warming trend could commence during the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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