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OBS and nowcast 10A-5P both Mon and Tue 2/22-23


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Good  Tuesday morning all, 

Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P.  No graphics today with the graphics below from 2/22.     528A/23


Today (22): Advisories posted just w and n of I-95 for a 5 hour period of occasionally heavy wet snow, while snow NYC and possibly all of the forum coasts during midday changes to rain.  Exception southern Ocean County - which may be all rain.  Snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour anticipated for portions of NJ will quickly make treated roads slippery for a time. Isolated ~5" possible part of NJ near and north of I78 with a general 2-4" accumulation in the advisory area though 4" possibly less likely in NYS/CT. This band may spawn isolated thunder in NJ/LI as it models convective in nature. Expect the first heavy burst within 1 hour of onset, then a slight relax followed by another heavy burst, then on the wane it's last two hours. Begins NJ/ne PA/se NYS 10A-NOON, NYC/CT Noon-1P,.  Ends about 5 hours after onset. . Snow in NYC CP possible until 2P where anticipate anywhere from 0.2 to 1.4" there , dependent on temps/how quick it changes. Even a slight coating possible all of the forum coasts.

Tuesday: Combined Tuesday in this thread only because it's a top 8 February and many members even out to eastern LI should see some sort of snow showers for an hour or two (may be more accumulation e LI Tuesday than today).  Snow showers possibly mixed with rain on LI. Many locations Tuesday should receive 0.1 to as much as 0.5" new snow by ~1PM... the showery occurrence primarily during midday. 

Attached the 00z/22 HPC HREF, the 06z/22 NAM anticipated base snowfall and the NWS regional deterministic snowfall graphic. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-22 at 3.44.18 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-22 at 4.01.12 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-22 at 5.36.40 AM.png

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24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is going to be very close  for NYC.  Excited to see what occurs. 

If the rates for this event continue to be as heavy as what I am seeing to our west this morning then the warmer boundary layer close to the coast could be overcome more than currently believed.  I agree that this will be close for NYC.  I think that it is reasonable that places in the Bronx, Manhattan, Northern Queens, and Staten Island could see new accums with this event before all is set and done.

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thread is so quiet

Nice  little snow event for DC and Philly. Lets hope we all get in on the action. 

Good morning Anthony. We could start a “Free S19” movement. Or instigate more fun discourse between Rjay and Bx. Or just wait for the first flake. As always ....

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4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The upper air (850 and 925 temps) are the same or slightly colder in the NYC area than down in Phily (where it is snow) so well see what the BL temps do once the precip starts. Temps will need to cool 3-5 degrees

Pay attention to your dew point temp.  The air temp has dropped 3F since the event began.  I have gone from 32 to 29.  The DP has leveled off at 27F.

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9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Light snow started in Metuchen around 10:45 am; it dropped from 38 to 36F in the last 20 minutes and has more room to drop with a dp of 26F.  Any snow today is bonus snow, IMO.  

Well that escalated quickly - moderate snow now and 35F (wet bulb is 32F).  

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