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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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Just talked Brad P. saying forecast looks good still. Still see 0.25 to 0.50 for Hickory west Into Burke and back towards Marion and then points north and east of Hickory. He said nothing has changed since last night if anything totals went up slightly or stayed the same. Even GSP just come out with there latest forecast map showing 0.25 to 0.50(including every place I just said).

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44/25 in Mooresville not sure what I was Shown on NAM currently. I still stick with my idea the Ice line will halt on HWY73 up to HWY152 somewhere in there South of there I doubt goes below 32/33 at all N of there 31/32 Includes Huntersville- Concord/Kannapolis up To China Grove - Mooresville ..... Point blank you all know your area and how it performs in CAD , If you normally hold longer you will tonight as well if not you won’t. Climo and history will repeat itself more times than not. Someone tell me if I’m wrong on that though

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Checked the forecast for updates for NE NC for this event and ended up with a flood watch.  Yuck.  Good luck to everyone west and north of here.

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I personally wrote this one off because of my location of being extreme northern end of Spartanburg.  But it is alarming that the temp and dew point here in Landrum are the same as Asheville on weather underground being 47/22.  I could be wrong but I think there’s even more dry cold air on the way so we will see but I hope like HELL this doesn’t verify.  

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1 hour ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

 

 

I do too.  It is also something I have been thinking about (the 10-20 years ago storms). 10 -20 years ago almost all wedges and CADs ended up colder than the models were showing, which is where we all got the "it will trend colder" from.  Sometimes significantly and markedly colder. however, for the last couple of years, we all talk about the trending colder and expect it yet it is just not happening and a lot of us end up at 33 or 34 with rain.  the models still aren't that great, but they do appear to be handling the colder air a bit better.  I cannot really remember a storm in the last couple of years that trended much colder and ended up with a surprise storm or more ice than anticipated.  

while I remain optimistic and hopeful, I am no longer really all that convinced about the "trending colder" for CADs any more.  I take a lot of it with a grain of salt - in the early 2000s it was almost always fun to track CADs and post temps/dewpoints and watch as a lot of the people on the boards as it happened.  It just doesn't seem to do this now and we can never get the trend to shave off the final few degrees we need. 

(this post is referring generally to ne ga and the upstate, not the higher parts of NC)

 

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Concord is READY for this ghastly winter to continue!

Currently 46

Dew point 25

But, im still optimistic that I will see my avg of about 4-5" of snow before spring!!!-)

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23 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

44/25 in Mooresville not sure what I was Shown on NAM currently. I still stick with my idea the Ice line will halt on HWY73 up to HWY152 somewhere in there South of there I doubt goes below 32/33 at all N of there 31/32 Includes Huntersville- Concord/Kannapolis up To China Grove - Mooresville ..... Point blank you all know your area and how it performs in CAD , If you normally hold longer you will tonight as well if not you won’t. Climo and history will repeat itself more times than not. Someone tell me if I’m wrong on that though

Im between 29 and 49 in sw concord! I hope your right about 73 being the line! Sleet I'm ok with, the other can kiss m......

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7 minutes ago, NEGa said:

 

I do too.  It is also something I have been thinking about (the 10-20 years ago storms). 10 -20 years ago almost all wedges and CADs ended up colder than the models were showing, which is where we all got the "it will trend colder" from.  Sometimes significantly and markedly colder. however, for the last couple of years, we all talk about the trending colder and expect it yet it is just not happening and a lot of us end up at 33 or 34 with rain.  the models still aren't that great, but they do appear to be handling the colder air a bit better.  I cannot really remember a storm in the last couple of years that trended much colder and ended up with a surprise storm or more ice than anticipated.  

while I remain optimistic and hopeful, I am no longer really all that convinced about the "trending colder" for CADs any more.  I take a lot of it with a grain of salt - in the early 2000s it was almost always fun to track CADs and post temps/dewpoints and watch as a lot of the people on the boards as it happened.  It just doesn't seem to do this now and we can never get the trend to shave off the final few degrees we need. 

(this post is referring generally to ne ga and the upstate, not the higher parts of NC)

 

I think where we do see this sometimes is the persistence of the wedge despite strong WAA aloft. The models erode the cold too quickly, even in the short range. I think a couple general rules of thumb are that during these kinds of events, where the temp ends up after the column is fully saturated is where it tends to stay. I could see places in the triad staying in the 30-31 range all day long, but never really dropping below 30.

Also, it seems plausible that we would see some sleet, which the HRRR is picking up on. THe opposite happens a lot where a sneaky warm layer leads to sleet, but we may have a sneaky cold layer that makes for sleet instead of ZR (see sounding below). Finally the drying trend has been real. This is the main culprit for why the raw zr outputs have decrease for many. I suspect, in the end this will lead to a more impactful event , with more time for accreation, except for those in the zone between Wilkesboro and Winston, where it may stay relatively dry. 

hrrr_2021021718_020_36.12--79.74.png

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Burlington looks to be a "sweet" spot - generator unboxed, fueled and ready (purchased 2 weeks ago - due mostly in part to this forum and the expertise - so thanks), new chainsaw chain and bar oil purchased, steak and pork chops and libations procured, 12gal. of ethanol free on the ready. Ya'll be safe and on the ready. 2014 event had power out for 4 days, 2003 reported 7-10 day outage, what will this one hold?  A soggy winter with 3.5" in MBY the last 5 days doesn't bode well for root balls on old Oaks that's for sure.

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4 minutes ago, greendave said:

Burlington looks to be a "sweet" spot - generator unboxed, fueled and ready (purchased 2 weeks ago - due mostly in part to this forum and the expertise - so thanks), new chainsaw chain and bar oil purchased, steak and pork chops and libations procured, 12gal. of ethanol free on the ready. Ya'll be safe and on the ready. 2014 event had power out for 4 days, 2003 reported 7-10 day outage, what will this one hold?  A soggy winter with 3.5" in MBY the last 5 days doesn't bode well for root balls on old Oaks that's for sure.

It seems like the epicenter of about eight model runs has focused on Alamance/Orange/Durham north of 40/85 plus the border counties.

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

It seems like the epicenter of about eight model runs has focused on Alamance/Orange/Durham north of 40/85 plus the border counties.

My dad’s property is just north of 40 in chapel hill and he hasn’t had any trees down since the 2002 storm. 20 years to grow back this could be pretty bad. 

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RDPS looks a bit colder at 18z. The main difference b/n the GFS/RDPS and the NAM/Hi-Res mods appears to be the precip' shield. The higher res American models appear to be putting more emphasis on sparser convective/dynamic bands (this is usually the case due to the model physics/resolution). A more steady/less dynamical precip shield would be more conducive for ZR accrual. This may be something to watch tonight to get a feel for which way this is headed.

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Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Some roads near Easley have been brined, I guess bc of the WWA. Not expecting any issues here though.  

I think it's because when they say it won't happen, it always does here.  Near Smithfields, how 'bout you?

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Looking at the 18z long range HRRR, I see the triad starting to get into the mix around 3am or so.  I see 6 hours of steady precipitation followed by approximately 9ish hours of very scattered precipitation.  Is this a moot point ?  Or could it mean that the majority of the precip is going to be in the first 6 hours (in the triad area) and also mean that those first 6 hours could be heavy precip to line up with the forecasted QPF ?

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like clouds may hold off until well after sunset north of I40. 

 

It is awesome out this afternoon. Blue skies and nice!

 

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39 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Just got my propane topped off... Gas Logs will be ready to roll if we need them. 

I’m still waiting on Hank from Strickland Propane to show up with the bobtail this afternoon.  I’m sitting on 300 gallons—enough for a few days of generator use—but I’d feel better with the tank topped off.  I cut the pilot on the logs to conserve what I have.  LOL

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4 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Wetbulbs continuing to warm. Hopefully it keeps the trend up. Don't need power outages during a Pandemic. 

image.png.f3fb44b866d4155364770c8b9c742db8.png

those really, really, really are irrelevant right now.

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