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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I think you’re seeing a consolidation on models to a 30-32 (average) degree storm with 0.25-0.50 accrual. 

Once again I think ice accrual will be minimal here in the valley with up to. 25 on ridge tops and more above 3k along the escarpment 

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 

Any chance they go back the other way? Really hope they do for my area. 

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Just now, wxduncan said:

Any chance they go back the other way? Really hope they do for my area. 

I'd say they are coming to a consensus now, not so many crazy amounts of ice showing 

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Someone mentioned it yesterday, but timing and precip intensity is playing some havoc on these accrual maps. It's probably going to bounce around until gametime tomorrow.

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Well at least the Burke WX and others are upping totals along with GSP/Brad P and others. Still have fate. 

 

EucB2mMXcAAMknp?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

That just come out from Burke WX/Foothills Weather Network there very close to what Brad P is saying of 0.30 to 0.50 from Marion,Moranton,Hickory and points North and East. 

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I posted this a couple hours ago...

 

”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros.

Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“

 

C38EB66B-2C70-44F0-BE61-D75348C31804.jpeg

E44D690C-AEB5-4571-9AAB-C7326AE37973.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I posted this a couple hours ago...

 

”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros.

Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“

 

C38EB66B-2C70-44F0-BE61-D75348C31804.jpeg

E44D690C-AEB5-4571-9AAB-C7326AE37973.jpeg

Thanks Matt.   Going to be a rough situation for a bunch of north carolinians.

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Some bright sunshine here in the Triad for a few hours today may help the road situation tonight a bit.  But we are nearing the time for OBS with only a few model runs left.  Generators were flying off the shelves this morning at Lowes in GSO.  They sold 8 while I was standing there.  

Lets get this over with.  I'm ready for 50's and sunshine next week.

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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Some bright sunshine here in the Triad for a few hours today may help the road situation tonight a bit.  But we are nearing the time for OBS with only a few model runs left.  Generators were flying off the shelves this morning at Lowes in GSO.  They sold 8 while I was standing there.  

Lets get this over with.  I'm ready for 50's and sunshine next week.

I was going to run over to Home Depot on Battleground for some new work gloves, but I’m not eager to fight the anxious mobs.  (My old ones will do.)  My neighbor had the foresight to schedule a major tree pruning and cutting this morning to avoid the worst.  I’ve been watching the crew cutting away.  I’m also waiting on my propane guy to come top my tank off.

The more prepared the people around you are, the easier it is for everyone.

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32 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I posted this a couple hours ago...

 

”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros.

Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“

 

C38EB66B-2C70-44F0-BE61-D75348C31804.jpeg

E44D690C-AEB5-4571-9AAB-C7326AE37973.jpeg

Looks good my area just west of Hickory and is line with Burke WX, Brad P ,GSP and a couple others. 

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Brad Panovich said he is very concerned that the modelling is underestimating the depth of cold air. 

Down in Catawba Valley the NE wind does a particular bite to it today.

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2 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Anyone have thoughts on whether the ice sinks in to Moore County. New here so still learning the climo. Thanks!

 

I think the ice mostly stays north of 64 with the worst of it north of 85. 

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7 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Anyone have thoughts on whether the ice sinks in to Moore County. New here so still learning the climo. Thanks!

 

You will be fine down there. You need to be north of I 40 and west of Rt 1 to get Ice in this type of system. You may see some glaze but nothing to worry about

NINJA'D by bullcity lol

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1 minute ago, Avdave said:

You will be fine down there. You need to be north of I 40 and west of Rt 1 to get Ice in this type of system. You may see some glaze but nothing to worry about

NINJA'D by bullcity lol

Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow :)

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3 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow :)

Yeah usually that is how it works up there, I moved here from Leesburg so I know what you mean. 

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17 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Not that it matters .... but I’m still at 35/22 Forecast high was 45-47 ... idk 

forecast high for me today was 42, im sitting at 40 right now and the suns out.  It was colder this morning than was expected though.  My low for today says 32 but it was 26 degrees here this morning

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