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February 18/19th Storm Potential


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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

As long we don’t start trending towards some sort of redux of wave 1, wave 2, etc, I am all in for a good 20+ hours of winter weather (mostly snow I hope). 

yeah....my first thought when it started to look like a two part event was the pause/lull between the two would be where we lose the mids and everyone mixes from that point forward.  Doesnt seem to be the case right now.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

HRRR has snow for all by 10-12z, kinda light north of DC tho

Yeah, I guess the main takeaway is that it starts everyone EZF north as snow. Wave 2 looked pretty potent but obviously it doesn't go out to that range. 

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Just now, EHoffman said:

Can someone post the full watch text please

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-
170400-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches and total
  ice accumulations of a quarter inch or more are possible.

* WHERE...The Washington, Baltimore, and Fredericksburg
  Metropolitan areas.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$
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Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 25 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link)

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 

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Just now, Roger Smith said:

Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link)

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 

I'm still waiting for my predicted blizzards from the past three storms.

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Just now, Roger Smith said:

Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link)

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 

I'm hoping for a track from Texarkana to Short Pump

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3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link)

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 

Don't you ever change.

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Southern stream moisture will get drawn into this system, and
with Canadian high pressure to the north, that provides a good
setup for wintry precipitation. There is an anomalous upper-
level ridge over the southeastern CONUS, so that does favor a
setup for a wintry mix for most areas vs. all snow.
Precipitation is most likely to overspread the area from
southwest to northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning. A potent jetmax along with southern stream moisture
suggests that moderate to heavy precipitation is possible
shortly after the onset. This can be seen in most guidance in
the form of a strong jetmax at the mid-levels that has origin
from the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some uncertainty as to
exactly where this band of heavier precipitation sets up.
Temperature profiles do appear cold enough for snow at the
onset for most areas, therefore, significant snowfall is
possible before changing over the a wintry mix. The best chance
for the heavier snow appears to be across the northwestern half
of the CWA (where colder temps aloft will hold on longer, and
where most of the guidance has the original band of heavier snow
setting up). A dry slot may cause precipitation rates to
decrease some Thursday afternoon, but more overrunning Thursday
night will cause more wintry precipitation to develop. With
warmer air aloft, sleet and freezing rain will become more
likely during this time (although snow will hold for a while in
the Allegheny Mountains and Potomac Highlands). Significant ice
accumulation from freezing rain is possible, especially near and
east of Interstate 95 into central Virginia. A Winter Storm
Watch is in effect for the entire CWA for these reasons.
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Just now, caviman2201 said:

This is the second storm this year that I've noticed has shown that 'crab claw' look that seems to have precip avoiding the cities for a while... weird

image.thumb.png.57ef5af104471e07aace9dd008105b0a.png

i didnt even know the HRRR went out to 48 hours

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