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stormtracker

February 18/19th Storm Potential

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Ha.  It has been a bit since we've been that cold.

For sure. I expect that’s overdone, but teens for lows seems likely.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

 

Gotta love it...

This is straight up banter so last thing I'll say on this, but we were referring to different panels and I even said earlier that the front end thump was way juicer on the 12z.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill clown comp 

2A1E0C5E-E491-47AA-AC5F-7D21A74E6A17.gif.d78ce35395bccc90a6847a569d3f3ec8.gif

Okay I cannot resist this small bit of banter: For those who grew up with the Pokémon games (especially the first few generations)...doesn't this animation look just like when your Pokémon evolves? Lol

Okay, weather related: Nice south shift here!

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Just now, Pixee said:

Somebody's stuff is really sagging there!

this storm moved so slow it ends up giving us rain. Mix for PSU

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For sure. I expect that’s overdone, but teens for lows seems likely.

I think we can do it.  Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019).  10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

I think we can do it.  Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019).  10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else.

Didn’t realize it was so recent. 

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WBAL's favorite model, the RPM, has EZF and even St. Mary's City starting as snow for a couple of hours. Definitely a colder tick across the board.

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we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather

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Just now, Ji said:

we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather

And I have 7" to show for it.  The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather

Yup. This time last year we were chasing D15 phantom patter changes.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather

Well just look who started the long range thread immediately prior. Not bragging or anything lol

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

And I have 7" to show for it.  The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.

yea...thats actually 7 inches more than you usually get...but yea.....there has been so many threats that the ratio is actually worse this year!

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I'll feel better when there are no more outliers.. .this year, an outlier has become the truth. Way too much model snow this year vs reality. Models have been overestimating precip all season.

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12z suite was solid overall from I-66 north. Two days ago we were staring at a warm rain. Would like to see the NAM twins start going colder/wetter.

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EPS colder and snowier for just about everyone than 6Z.  This panel is money.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3671200.png

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25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Didn’t realize it was so recent. 

We were too busy commiserating the failure of the snow pattern to notice the brief cold snap. 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

EPS colder and snowier for just about everyone than 6Z.  This panel is money.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3671200.png

It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850?

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EPS is really nice, colder across the board and a couple of double digit hits even in to the beltway and I-95. FWIW, since we're at about HR48 to 55 prior to start, this is probably the last useful run of the ensembles because they tend to cluster inside HR 48.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850?

Definitely.  That panel is wetter than 6z.  I am resigned to the fact that we will mix (and probably mix earlier than models suggest) but everything on the EPS looked a hair colder.

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25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

And I have 7" to show for it.  The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC.  It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least.  But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here).  Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that.  Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years.   I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. 

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The storm is becoming a two parter in a way. Maybe we can nail both parts.

Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part.  Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas.

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5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part.  Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas.

As long we don’t start trending towards some sort of redux of wave 1, wave 2, etc, I am all in for a good 20+ hours of winter weather (mostly snow I hope). 

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I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. 

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. 

You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else?

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC.  It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least.  But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here).  Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that.  Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years.   I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. 

I think it's a super interesting topic, but it totally makes sense that even modest overall warming trends over the past ~30 years would trigger less frozen events in mediocre setups down around here. 

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