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2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat


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Just now, calculus1 said:

@BullCityWx , you are right on Brad P. Totally trying to cover his butt: "Measure fast as it will melt fast."
Translation: "I was wrong about the snowfall, so I hope it melts fast and no one will notice when they wake up in the morning."

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Emphasizing that it’s only on elevated surfaces when webcams show interstate and all roads caving. He’s not having a good winter

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From NWS GSP.  Another update: :D


As of 900 PM: Well, for everyone hoping to see snow across the I-85
corridor from the Gaffney area to Carnesville, GA, you`re happy
right now! A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for those
areas, including the Greenville and Spartanburg areas, until 4 am
tomorrow morning. The 700 mb frontogenesis is quite strong and right
in the dendritic growth zone. This is further aided by strong DPVA
with an approaching upper trough over the Mid-South. Snow rates are
so heavy, that despite warm ground temps, accums are on roads and
are adding up fast. The HRRR keeps this band roughly in place thru
06z tonight, but rates should gradually weaken. Given the latest
snow reports, some locations from Seneca to Easley to Traveler`s
Rest and north may get warning criteria snow of 3"+. Slippery roads
will be the main concern overnight, but should improve early Sunday
morning, as precip changes back to rain and temps hover around 33-34
degrees. But in the meantime, roads are slippery across the Upstate
along and north of I-85!

Later tonight, still expect a warm nose to punch in and the
frontogeneis will weaken. there may be a lull in precip east of the
mountains, while additional precip moves in from the west associated
with the approaching upper wave. So no changes to the Winter Storm
Warning or other Advisory at this time.


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2 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

For those in Hickory and Icard areas is it all snow and what's the rate right now? 

Yes, all snow.  Nice large flakes.  I'm not good at measuring rates, though.  It's moderate, I would say.  Probably not SN+.  Heaviest returns just to my SW, though.  We will see what that brings...

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Vicinity

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 070308Z - 070715Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates exceeding 1 in/hr, expected this
   evening over the southern Appalachians, perhaps changing to freezing
   rain in a few spots after 04z-05z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows an amplifying mid-level
   short-wave trough approaching the region, with strong/broad
   southwesterly deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent occurring ahead
   of this system. Regional radar shows a broad precipitation shield
   that continues to expand and overspread the area. As low-levels of
   the atmosphere continue to saturate, surface temperatures have
   fallen several degrees in the past few hours, with areas in/near the
   higher terrain falling below freezing. Consequently, the
   precipitation type across eastern portions of the Carolinas has
   switched to snow, with some locations reporting moderate snow.

   As the amplifying short-wave continues its approach, several more
   hours of broad ascent and renewed precipitation development is
   expected. Presently, it appears frozen precipitation types should be
   confined to the higher terrain regions in proximity to the southern
   Appalachians. Snowfall rates near 1 in/hr can be expected initially.
   Forecast soundings indicate very strong low-level warm-air advection
   (50 kt flow in the 750-700 mb layer) that may result in a period of
   mixed precipitation. Should this occur, some locations could also
   experience freezing-rain rates near 0.06 in/3-hr after around


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Almost heavy snow here, 32.4˚ about 4 inches on the deck rails...seems that when it gets more moderate the flakes get bigger, but the heaver it gets the smaller the flakes... looks like it is going to do this for the next several hours...  might it be March 2009 all over again?  we ended up with 12.4" forecast said 1 - 3"


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