Eduardo Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Honestly, this is right where we want things on each of these models at this timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Probably take a blend of NAM and (insert guidance here) to get something that’ll probably end up close to reality; hence, 2-6 with pockets of 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Probably take a blend of NAM and (insert guidance here) to get something that’ll probably end up close to reality; hence, 2-6 with pockets of 6-10 I think 3-6 is a good call for most of the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully for comparison we get the v16 GFS today. I am hoping for this too as it seems to be better than old GFS. Why are they having so many problems with the data flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I find the Kuchera maps to always be less accurate than 10 to 1 this year for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GGEM came in a good bit NW also like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 COBB METHOD on latest NAM 12Z is 16", up from Nothing on the 06Z. Final Super Bowl score will be somewhere between 13-3 and 55-10. Is that accurate enough for you? You get to pick the team that wins. however. Eat your pizza and do not look out the window. IT IS BASED ON 1" OF LIQUID. ACTUALLY IT IS BASED UPON HOW MANY KERNELS OF CORN ARE LEFT ON THE 'COBB' AFTER THE CHIEF METEOROLOGIST HAS NIBBLED ON IT FOR AN HOUR. LOL! Looks like it means it here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: COBB METHOD on latest NAM 12Z is 16", up from Nothing on the 06Z. Final Super Bowl score will be somewhere between 13-3 and 55-10. Is that accurate enough for you? You get to pick the team that wins. however. Eat your pizza and do not look out the window. What’s the Cobb method based on? I don’t see anyone getting 16” from a fast mover like this. Maybe someone gets 10-12” in one of the heavy bands. It would be a general 6-10” type deal otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I find the Kuchera maps to always be less accurate than 10 to 1 this year for whatever reason. They did pretty good last storm ratios were higher than 10:1 even near the coast for a lot of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It’s funny how the GFS has probably been the most consistently west model the last 48 hours. I think because the setup is rather simple in a fast flow is allowing it to grasp things better. Normally the GFS is horrible with anything resembling a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: What’s the Cobb method based on? I don’t see anyone getting 16” from a fast mover like this. Maybe someone gets 10-12” in one of the heavy bands. It would be a general 6-10” type deal otherwise. It sometimes overshoots. One should also use the maximum temperature algorithm for a better perspective. Here’s a paper on the Cobb Method: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=geoscidiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It sometimes overshoots. One should also use the maximum temperature algorithm for a better perspective. Here’s a paper on the Cobb Method: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=geoscidiss Thanks-I’ve seen it mentioned before but didn’t know much about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z GEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GEM Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It's odd how the GEM has the low that close to the coast but still has a very narrow heavy precip shield. Would imagine it would be more expansive to get our NW neighbors involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow One more tick west and its winter storm warning level snow again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Southern getting stronger to me.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: One more tick west and its winter storm warning level snow again It's already there.(for some) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: It's already there.(for some) Yes cmc and NAM are warning level to the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes for LI maybe Upton and Mount Holly are probably meeting right now or planning to do so this afternoon to begin deciding whether to release Winter Storm Watches for at least some of the area or wait till Saturday AM. Walt probably knows what is going on behind the scenes right now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/012006.png 500 mb looks similar to the Raiders/Patriots snow game in 2002 Jan 20. Low pressure to hw nw of the coastal, with high to the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s funny how the GFS has probably been the most consistently west model the last 48 hours. I think because the setup is rather simple in a fast flow is allowing it to grasp things better. Normally the GFS is horrible with anything resembling a Miller A There is going to be a limit to how much can fall due to the super fast flow. I think this is a general 2-6 inch snowfall for the metro. The NAM is overdone IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2002/012006.png 500 mb looks similar to the Raiders/Patriots snow game in 2002 Jan 20. Low pressure to hw nw of the coastal, with high to the ne. I hope not - this one for the weekend looks like its heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Amazing how thin that is considering it's right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I hope not - this one for the weekend looks like its heavier Looks like this low is a few mb stornger maybe gona add a few inches on top of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There is going to be a limit to how much can fall due to the super fast flow. I think this is a general 2-6 inch snowfall for the metro. The NAM is overdone IMO The old DT theory is always watch QPF for very fast moving systems drop in the final 24-36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ukmet looks like 6 to 10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ratios look higher than 1:10 . Strong lifting with 700 mb temps minus 10. 1 inch qpf would squeeze out 12 inch of snow not 10. Very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now