George BM

February Banter 2021

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53 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I sense the Reaper is running out of space in the Panic Room and may need to resort to makeshift outdoor portables by the end of this upcoming week!

I think The Reaper needs to open up a side joint featuring S&M, for all the pain we put ourselves through! Who's ready for next week? 

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I unfortunately feel like we're heading into a grey area between both Spring and wintry threats for DC. Not getting invested in next week's threat, but at the same time the GFS has 0 days above 60 through the entire run. Ugh. 

I’ll even take sunny and average given that’ll be 50+ in less than a week.

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This honestly might be the most impressive DC'ing I've ever seen. A stat which features the company of not only 2010, but also 2003 and 1899 in the department of accumulating snowfall events, in February no less! Without much context that looks incredibly encouraging, but obviously fails to meet that mark lol. How would we have reacted if before this winter we were told that DC would have tallied more accumulating snow events in the month of February than 2010?? 

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57 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I unfortunately feel like we're heading into a grey area between both Spring and wintry threats for DC. Not getting invested in next week's threat, but at the same time the GFS has 0 days above 60 through the entire run. Ugh. 

So average late Feb and March weather for a change.  

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20 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

This honestly might be the most impressive DC'ing I've ever seen. A stat which features the company of not only 2010, but also 2003 and 1899 in the department of accumulating snowfall events, in February no less! Without much context that looks incredibly encouraging, but obviously fails to meet that mark lol. How would we have reacted if before this winter we were told that DC would have tally more accumulating snow events in the month of February than 2010?? 

This is goddamn absurd.  This winter needs to end.

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29 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I could go on forever addressing this post and the other, but It would be banter. I don't get jealous of North NJ snowfall because I understand its a different climate up there,The area outlined should be a jealously zone because generally speaking they get the same amount give or take 5 inches. But lately, it is extremely lopsided, its like a different climate up there this year. This year the northeast end of that is at 40 inches, the southern end is at, a few?

Is it bad luck? Or is something happening down here?

 

 

 

map.jpg

But the perception inst really accurate.  Philly got 3.3" yesterday.  NW of downtown Philly got a LOT more...just like NW parts of our regions got a lot more.  I will say this...places a lot closer to Philly proper do a LOT better then the immediate suburbs here to.  Part of that is latitude advantage and part is geography.  Like I said once you get NW of the fall line it changes...but again places not far NW of Philly average a LOT more snow then DC or Balitmore so again those places are not a fair comp.  South Philly is...but they aren't doing as much better as people think.  They didn't even get that much in the HECS storm 3 weeks ago.  They got a couple inches more then Baltimore!  And there have been plenty of storms in the last 10 years where Baltimore or DC did better then Philly but we seem to forget those!  We don't "complain" when we win lol.  Downtown Philly and south Philly has not been doing that much better then Baltimore in general.  The northern and western burbs of philly have, but those places average a LOT more snow...the snow climo changes a lot more radically over a short distance in that area then our area so taking snow results from a NW burb of philly and comparing it to Baltimore is not a good comp.  

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Im in.   Absolute favorite

Is ketchup an acceptable condiment for those?

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I think with this year the frustrating part here is that we have continually failed and the rest of the NE corridor has continually done great. Prior years had the say the Boxing Day fiasco but then one a few weeks later where we all scored. Same with 2015. I remember NJ and NYC getting clobbered in Jan 2015, but then we made up for it with an awesome Feb/March. This year for the immediate metro it’s been fail after fail. It happens. But then again we had 2018-2019 which us immediate metro folks had a decent season- 1.5 inches downtown in NOVEMBER, a 10 inch two part storm in January, and a nice daytime late February solid advisory level storm. PHL did not do well that year. Like DC sports we tend to perseverate on the failures. 

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All I know is that map has me pretty close to where the taint is located. Map is accurate. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor  I drew the approximate location of the 20", 25", and 30" snowfall averages on your map to show where the real snow climo zones are. 

climo.thumb.png.79b513db8b4c683bc558108da4265a98.png

Great map! I’m in Newark and have had 16.5 so far. Just to the south of me (Middletown etc) has had much less. Some of that is typical but much more pronounced this year.  Similar to DC, certain areas have gotten screwed. I know you are pointing to other factors that could be driving it- and I don’t disagree- but some of it has been sheer bad luck on where the bands have set up. Too early to know if it’s a trend or just an aberration. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Great map! I’m in Newark and have had 16.5 so far. Just to the south of me (Middletown etc) has had much less. Some of that is typical but much more pronounced this year.  Similar to DC, certain areas have gotten screwed. I know you are pointing to other factors that could be driving it- and I don’t disagree- but some of it has been sheer bad luck on where the bands have set up. Too early to know if it’s a trend or just an aberration. 

 

 

It's a little of both...as one of my favorite soccer podcasters used to say...two things can be true.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor  I drew the approximate location of the 20", 25", and 30" snowfall averages on your map to show where the real snow climo zones are. 

climo.thumb.png.79b513db8b4c683bc558108da4265a98.png

Okay, fair enough. I can't argue too much with this map. But there are some errors on it that help your case and hinder mine. Its just the little details.

I don't believe you can hit Philly and travel essentially due east all the way to the ocean and maintain the same averages. Same goes for Wilmington and going due east to the Ocean. You are downplaying the effect the ocean has on totals in those areas. Granted, once 15-20 miles inland, it becomes less of an issue. But believe me, I lived in Monmouth County for 30+ years, and that Ocean was a killer compared to just another 10-20 miles inland. But when you go in 20 miles, thats half of the county.

So I'd take that 20 inch line, and 25 inch line and eek them up the coast a bit. Which, hate to say it, is more in line with my thinking.

There is simply no way Pt Pleasant NJ, does as well as SE PA and way western hilly burbs of DC.

 

So its kind of slipping hairs. Certainly I-95 south of the DMB has had terrible luck this year.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Take your 'confusion' of basic MA snow climo to banter, along with anyone who wants to bash their head against a wall in a futile attempt to help you figure it out. Spare the rest of us. This shit got old like 3 winters ago. 

Don't talk to me like that.

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3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Um, if I recall, PSU wanted to have the debate too. But you think you can bully me?

treat yourself kindly and just sign off. none of this matters. don't give up progress over this.  take care of yourself.

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Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Um, if I recall, PSU wanted to have the debate too. But you think you can bully me?

There is no "debate". I wish he could resist. You would think he would know by now what a complete waste of time it is to engage you. There must be a hundred posts of him trying to explain to you that snow climo on the MA coastal plain sucks. It isn't rocket science. Find something more interesting to obsess over?

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24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Take your 'confusion' of basic MA snow climo to banter, along with anyone who wants to bash their head against a wall in a futile attempt to help you figure it out. Spare the rest of us. This shit got old like 3 winters ago. 

My fault. I thought we were in banter because I replied last time here. Didn’t realize I was responding to another reply in the main thread. @RevWarReenactor just respond in here if you want to discuss climo stuff. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My fault. I thought we were in banter because I replied last time here. Didn’t realize I was responding to another reply in the main thread. @RevWarReenactor just respond in here if you want to discuss climo stuff. 

I admire your persistence. He hasn't posted here for ages, and when he comes back, its the same exact shit as before he left- despite you having already explained it in every way conceivable (and it isn't complicated) Good luck!

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So I finally button up an intense week and did a quick scan of the board. Here's what I found

1) even though the horse has literally been beaten dead, resurrected, and beaten dead again, the same ridiculous and excessively stupid debate about MD/DE/NJ/PA snow climo finds its way back. Again. And it still makes my eyes bleed and makes we want to threaten innocent yard rodents' lives with my foot

2) Nothern stream lows that track north of us with avg at best temps have never once been a good snow setup here but somehow monday is different

3) The digital storm next friday is so locked and loaded that it's already time to parse details of every op run from over a week out. Which makes sense considering how amazingly predictable long and mid range has been this year. Short range has been an epic disaster though so nothing to worry about until the night before the storm. I'm in

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