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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep!

To add to the compaction dialogue, I currently have 11" on the ground from my 14.4" total. Sun is peeking out and the dripping has commenced in full force. 

Yea I only received 1.2” overnight. You were most likely getting better snowfall rates last night.

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep!

To add to the compaction dialogue, I currently have 11" on the ground from my 14.4" total. Sun is peeking out and the dripping has commenced in full force. 

14 was my top end......just sayin. :P 

I figured taint would knock us down, but in truth didnt think we'd get as much dryslot and sleet as we did, so that part was off in my guestimations.  Still take the win tho. lol

Really nice event....and in truth the big totals weren't necessary for me.  Long duration w/ 14.4" is just a stellar result IMO.

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30 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea I only received 1.2” overnight. You were most likely getting better snowfall rates last night.

At some point late yesterday afternoon I seemed to pass you - I was under some really good bands like most in here from 1-3:30 or so, but I had another solid burst of SN+ in the hour before and after sunset. 

29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

14 was my top end......just sayin. :P 

I figured taint would knock us down, but in truth didnt think we'd get as much dryslot and sleet as we did, so that part was off in my guestimations.  Still take the win tho. lol

Really nice event....and in truth the big totals weren't necessary for me.  Long duration w/ 14.4" is just a stellar result IMO.

2 double digit snowfalls and we're only at 2/2? Huge win! I'm at 25.4" for the season with our best snow climo ahead of us. 

I'm never surprised with sleet, either duration here or areal coverage. This is NOT directed at you even though I'm quoting your post, but I'm amazed how often people are shocked by this. With some exceptions of course, this happens all the time. When are people going to understand that mix moves further inland than models predict? It drives me crazy because we go through this every storm. Next storm will come along and we'll go through it all over. Again. 

Any snow weenie disappointed after the past few days of weather needs to have his...well, his inner-weenie examined. :) 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

2 double digit snowfalls and we're only at 2/2? Huge win! I'm at 25.4" for the season with our best snow climo ahead of us. 

I'm never surprised with sleet, either duration here or areal coverage. This is NOT directed at you even though I'm quoting your post, but I'm amazed how often people are shocked by this. With some exceptions of course, this happens all the time. When are people going to understand that mix moves further inland than models predict? It drives me crazy because we go through this every storm. Next storm will come along and we'll go through it all over. Again. 

Any snow weenie disappointed after the past few days of weather needs to have his...well, his inner-weenie examined. :) 

Yeah looks like more chances and as others suggest, were only headed into prime time with things looking decent pattern wise.

It was a Miller B, and yep, one should never underestimate the "jip" potential wrt dryslot/taint.  I made my error into thinking the quicker transfer/erosion of primary would occur, when it appeared that primary hung on a bit longer which is why south of MD line got gut punched IMO.  That would have been a couple hours less or further south w/ the warm nose intrusion into our area. That wasn't being seen on all models and we clearly had 2 camps inside of 24, and I went with the thought that the coastal would suck the steam outta the primary and the column would collapse a bit sooner.  My gut was wrong, and I'm no met, so I'll eat that one.  No biggie. 

This was a ton of fun for me/us.  The board was great (although I though Pawatch was meltin a bit pre storm (lol all good buddy - it was a nervous time for a bit :P)

I enjoy the thrill of the chase and the fun/education convos we have when gettin storms. 

Much of it still happened how my head thought it would, that that was a personal win for me.   Onto the next one............

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Models kept showing taint and that change back to snow with a dying primary is never fast, so I assumed it would be as long as it lasted. I remember Horst saying something about 7:00 am change back to snow, and I was like, “that’s fast”.

To get 13” or 14” and be dry slotted and tainted for 12 hours is a huge win in my books.


.

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Models kept showing taint and that change back to snow with a dying primary is never fast, so I assumed it would be as long as it lasted. I remember Horst saying something about 7:00 am change back to snow, and I was like, “that’s fast”.

To get 13” or 14” and be dry slotted and tainted for 12 hours is a huge win in my books.


.

NAMs did well w/ the taint part, but while the flags went up I sorta dismissed them (cause the weenie in me didnt wanna believe??)  There was enough other support to my reasoining so I stuck w/ it.  All good.  Glad to see you got into decent numbers as you were late to transition "down there" lol.

 

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The initial WAA phase of the storm with the primary is where I came up pretty short as better precip kind of split this area (going southern tier and up around UNV and N from there). I had under 2 inches all the way until later Sunday Evening.  A few more inches from that and would've pretty much been on target with what I expected here. Otherwise, the 8-14" call with the imbedded area of heavier amounts ended up working out pretty good. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The initial WAA phase of the storm with the primary is where I came up pretty short as better precip kind of split this area (going southern tier and up around UNV and N from there). I had under 2 inches all the way until later Sunday Evening.  A few more inches from that and would've pretty much been on target with what I expected here. Otherwise, the 8-14" call with the imbedded area of heavier amounts ended up working out pretty good. 

I actually grew up in Altoona --went to Keith/AAHS and lived in Sinking Valley for six years prior to leaving home.  I definitely miss the snowfalls up in the valley--especially when it was raining in the city.  My mom actually lived near the Campus until about five years ago, up at the top of N. 4th Street.  

Really impressive how far west the heavy banding got.  

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42 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

I actually grew up in Altoona --went to Keith/AAHS and lived in Sinking Valley for six years prior to leaving home.  I definitely miss the snowfalls up in the valley--especially when it was raining in the city.  My mom actually lived near the Campus until about five years ago, up at the top of N. 4th Street.  

Really impressive how far west the heavy banding got.  

Oh wow thats cool, yea I'm walking distance from the campus where I'm at. 

Sinking Valley can def get some interesting weather.. especially on the mountain end. The wind's really kicked up this afternoon so there's likely to be some nice drifts over there. 

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Final post I'll make for this storm. Looking back, if you ignore the crazy QPF amounts it was depicting, I thought the RGEM performed as well as any other model. For the days leading up to the storm it consistently showed a very heavy swath of snow over eastern PA. It moved the target from the Philly metro west over my area, and then started shifting it a bit towards the LV, but considering that many locations in the LV have exceeded 30", my lasting impression was that the RGEM had the basic idea on where the heaviest snowfall was going to occur. 

GFS and NAM were super jumpy, the NAM didn't catch on until 6 hours after the event started. The Euro really smoothed out the area of heaviest snow and was too high in most of the LSV, and had that crazy blip on one of the 0z runs that took almost everything to the south of PA. 

Ukie ended up fairly close but was swinging wildly run to run leading up to the event. 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The initial WAA phase of the storm with the primary is where I came up pretty short as better precip kind of split this area (going southern tier and up around UNV and N from there). I had under 2 inches all the way until later Sunday Evening.  A few more inches from that and would've pretty much been on target with what I expected here. Otherwise, the 8-14" call with the imbedded area of heavier amounts ended up working out pretty good. 

We wound up with around 7”. Same main issue getting the intial batch going. 

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