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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


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Here in Carlisle at 7:00pm it continues to snow moderately.  During the past hour another 0.4" of snow had fallen.  That brings today's total to 5.2" and the 2-day storm total to 8.9".  Confidence is growing that I'll receive another 1.5" to just beat out the December storm.  The temp continues to very slowly rise and is now at the high of the day at 29.8 degrees.

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51 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Maybe @Blizzard of 93 can produce a snow map that only contains the weekend storm.  I'm thinking it might be closer to 24".  If this morning's run projected 16" more snow for this storm, then it's around 24" for the next one.

Here is a 24 hour qpf map which encompasses most of the storm.

image.thumb.png.0095066f83382ee4cef097e4a84820c0.png

 

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58 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

It’s snowing pretty good despite the “dry slot”, but I know I am in a radar shadow.
 

 

57 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Same here. Radar says no snow but this is my no snow 

 

22 minutes ago, paweather said:

Still coming down. Even though radar returns aren’t showing it. 

The best forcing and deepest moisture is a bit NW right now, so your still left with the low level easterly flow still bringing in moisture and snowfall even though crystal growth is limited. This is in the lowest several thousand feet so can't really see it in the LSV from CCX or LWX radar. Looking at KDIX (Philly) radar you can see the radar is filled in with echoes and that continues into the LSV.  

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

 

 

The best forcing and deepest moisture is a bit NW right now, so your still left with the low level easterly flow still bringing in moisture and snowfall even though crystal growth is limited. This is in the lowest several thousand feet so can't really see it in the LSV from CCX or LWX radar. Looking at KDIX (Philly) radar you can see the radar is filled in with echoes and that continues into the LSV.  

It sucks looking at the radar, just feels like we are getting screwed in the hole. Then I look outside.....mod snow. Feel okay again! 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is a 24 hour qpf map which encompasses most of the storm.

image.thumb.png.0095066f83382ee4cef097e4a84820c0.png

 

Thanks.  I would think based off of the snow map that way more than 1" of liquid would be there unless there is another storm after that one.  The map that was posted went out 10 days and was the total snow over the 240 hours beginning at 7:00am this morning.  Your map only goes out 7 days.  Hmmm

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Thanks.  I would think based off of the snow map that way more than 1" of liquid would be there unless there is another storm after that one.  The map that was posted went out 10 days and was the total snow over the 240 hours.  Your map only goes out 7 days.  Hmmm

The D7 storm that generated the majority of the snow in that crazy Kuchera map was a very cold storm (850 temps -8 to -10ºC and colder all storm) and no doubt the Kuchera method was cranking out some really big ratios (probably not realistic for a widespread synoptic system). 10:1 cut the 10 day totals more than in half in the central counties . Either way, it's a very active looking period coming up with significant arctic air in the fold and what appears to be an active storm track. Plus that "cutter" at the end of this week now has more frozen than liquid with it. That's why I started a new discussion thread to talk about all this separate from this long duration storm thread lol. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The D7 storm that generated the majority of the snow in that crazy Kuchera map was a very cold storm (850 temps -8 to -10ºC and colder all storm) and no doubt the Kuchera method was cranking out some really big ratios (probably not realistic for a widespread synoptic system). 10:1 cut the 10 day totals more than in half in the central counties . Either way, it's a very active looking period coming up with significant arctic air in the fold and what appears to be an active storm track. Plus that "cutter" at the end of this week now has more frozen than liquid with it. That's why I started a new discussion thread to talk about all this separate from this long duration storm thread lol. 

Thank you for explaining.  So we go back to the previous thread right now if we're discussing anything beyond this storm?

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We made it home  - prob the worst driving we have ever done. 

We were at the vet for 2 hours and I measured 2.5” on our car when I brushed it off before we left. I measured 12.2” at the house but that might have a bit of blowing snow on top but I feel pretty safe saying I got a foot 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, canderson said:

We made it home  - prob the worst driving we have ever done. 

We were at the vent for 2 hours and I measured 2.5” on our car when I brushed it off before we left. I measured 12.2” at the house but that might have a bit of blowing snow on top but I feel pretty safe saying I got a foot 

 

 

Good deal. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Professional a few miles from me just reported 20.5" to LWX News.  I am not a pro at measuring so glad I have a little backing.  Lol

Good thing that dry slot that you were worried about yesterday filled in ....just kidding around!

Lol... Congrats! I am happy you got crushed!

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good thing that dry slot that you were worried about yesterday filled in ....just kidding around!

Lol... Congrats! I am happy you got crushed!

There was not one model in the last 48 hours that forecasted over 12" here and that was a Kuch.  So I was not worried about a dry slot I was just model depicting.  Ha.  I do not have the time for fretting  anymore but I like the science of discussion.  Cashtown was the one that called my beatdown before it happened.  South mountain oragrphics and all.

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