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32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I don't think most would want to toss this tbh

1612224000-4pyRVDigxME.png

Yep. I seem to be constantly wrong about a lot of stuff today. I'm gonna stop posting and let the pros do the work.

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Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean.

 

I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean.

 

I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something.

The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust 

The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees

 

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5 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal?

ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though.

It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

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After looking over the CMC. It really isnt that much different from 18Z. Just the good banding ended up north this run. No way we can possibly know where the best banding ends up. We are still days away from knowing that. Having the RGEM with us makes me feel better about it.

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean.

 

I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something.

This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. 

7A562B97-7F07-4B2F-87A6-FB111AE7648E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

FWIW, there are definitely GEFS members that do this. Any member that is mostly blue - that's (WAA only) what happened.

1612342800-mh7gO2UjEoM.png 

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. 

7A562B97-7F07-4B2F-87A6-FB111AE7648E.jpeg

Would be nice if the qpf was accurate the thermals really are way to high.  Riding that weenie logic to pass the time before the Ukie and Euro run.

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Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area

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Just now, LP08 said:

Ukie is a central va jack with the WAA and deform through the area

? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing

780354287_sn10_acc.us_ma(1).thumb.png.49df72689506b0035b51d11d5e84c5d4.png

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Just now, Cobalt said:

? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing

780354287_sn10_acc.us_ma(1).thumb.png.49df72689506b0035b51d11d5e84c5d4.png

Yeah.  Main WAA goes through central va. Deform is dc and ne 

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Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum?

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2 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum?

qpf_acc.us_state_de_md.png

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The northern guidance came south. The southern guidance came north some. I’d like the euro tonight to look more like the NAM/rgem/icon/gfs/Ukmet then the ggem and para. 

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Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford 

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

qpf_acc.us_state_de_md.png

Ukmet is a great run.

DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so.  N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. 

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6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford 

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. 

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@yoda

on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me 

These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up.  Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA

IAD 16” 

Leesburg 17”

BWI 13”

winchester 13”

Westninster 17”

Mappy 20”

EZF 11”

Frederick 13”

Towson 17”

Columbia 15”

 

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