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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am glad it is only in the high 20's and low 30's at the surface. That is a dangerous amount of ice being shown this run. 

Upper 20s coming off a cold weekend and its January could be cold enough for a good icing . 30 degrees in late Feb or March with 55 the day before yea...just some tree glaze 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC

Big ice storm in N VA into DC... yikes

I81 corridor gets smoked with ice

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC

The 0z NAM is painful up here...I get almost no snow but 20 miles north of me gets 10" lol.  Probably too much to ask to get that to start to shift south when the overall bleed is the other way the last 72 hours.  

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2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

I love a good ice storm 

yea I actually have something REALLY important to do that day...and I have no problem driving in snow.  I have driven through actual blizzards out west where I could only see 10 feet in front of the car.  I have absolutely no issue with snow.  But ICE....no thank you.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Winchester was such a nice place...shame...real shame.  

I can’t tell you how scary that looks. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 0z NAM is painful up here...I get almost no snow but 20 miles north of me gets 10" lol.  Probably too much to ask to get that to start to shift south when the overall bleed is the other way the last 72 hours.  

Kind of like the cities in Dec lol

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An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel. 

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Just now, notvirga! said:

An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel. 

Wait, so lighter rates of freezing rain cause things to be more slippery than heavier rates?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Canadian is a much better result than the gfs

Looks like 1 to 3/2 to 3 inches of snow across much of the region

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait, so lighter rates of freezing rain cause things to be more slippery than heavier rates?

Unless it’s super cold yes due to latent heat release. 

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39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I can’t tell you how scary that looks. 

It would really really really suck...so this is not minimizing it...but sometimes I do think we overplay ice a wee bit...considering we survived like 2" of it in 1994 and yea it sucked but we made it.  We are all here to tell the tale.  

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The GFS would be catastrophic in the Shenandoah Valley. No other way to put it. 
We are gonna lose power then get blasted on Thursday according to that run. Sounds like fun
30 and ice is catastrophic?

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the ice map is a QPF map, kids.
Larry Cosgrove disagrees

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This is a heads up to all that the ZR accumulation maps are just model interpreted rain soundings falling into sub-freezing surface layer. The total ice is another physical paradigm that has a lot of other factors at play. This event is certainly looking frozen for a lot in the forum, but mainly a quick snow to sleet/zr as the lower boundary layer warms quickly with the wave pressing northeast. However, the antecedent airmass ahead and in place during the event will be enough to create some issues, especially with a lot of the precip occurring after prime heating. Low dew points in the region should provide sufficient wet bulb to ~29/30 for areas to the NW of the fall line, which could lead to prolonged icing concerns for the evening. Hourly precip is light for the most part as well, so this should allow for a better accretion environment IF the GFS were to oblige verbatim. 

Looking at a sample sounding on Monday evening, check out KFDK where the precip algorithm is basically on the border of snow/sleet with ice further to the south and east. 

gfs_2021012300_075_39.5--77.25.png

This is such a razor thin margin for what type of precip will be dominant during the beginning of greater mid-level ascent. In fact, it's even more of a snow signature for areas north of I-70 which is a benchmark for these types of borderline events. This has Winter Weather Advisory written all over it with an outside shot at WSW for areas north of the interstate and out by I-81. Lift is there. The cold is there for once. It's a matter of boundary layer warmth off the southerly low level flow between 7H and the surface.  

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