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ORH_wxman

Snow shower obs 1/20

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Starting this thread for obs on the snow showers today.

Pretty good WINDEX parameters, but the one ingredient missing is a really sharp zone of lift. However, big LI spike and some PVA should help. Lapse rates are about as high as you will ever see them in winter with the column near saturation so if some squalls can develop, they will get quite heavy I think. TTs are near 60 this afternoon before falling. Best chance for heavy squalls will be mid afternoon for central/western areas and late afternoon for eastern areas.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP/HRRR are actually pretty nice looking later on for eastern areas....yes, I know some of you don't give a crap.....but for those who do, worth watching for some decent squalls. TTs near 60 are no joke. Obscene lapse rates.

The FOUS method still suggests this type of WINDEX instability swaths over the region this afternoon ... 

Has the LI jump, the RH > 50% and the T1 to T5 is pretty damn steep as far as lapsing - 

It's just not quite as pronounced as it was yesterday when we brought it up - 

Funny how this season has done that - seems there's a fairly significant correlation between seeing/observing reasons for hope, and immediate subsequent model depiction finding least excuse imagined to rule it out as remotely plausible - lol... It's like the AI of modeling has evolved a deviant machine-intelligence that's going, 'oh yeah - take that'

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There must be some decent rates in the heart of that stuff in between the ASOS stations

 

Jan20_947amRadar.gif

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Enjoy the snow for who gets it...apparently I'm a dick for suggesting a thread for what many deem to be a noteworthy event in a dull pattern.

You know Ginxy loves WINDEX. He just missed the context in your sarcasm. 

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Enjoy the snow for who gets it...apparently I'm a dick for suggesting a thread for what many deem to be a noteworthy event in a dull pattern.

Anytime there are flakes falling and covering is a good time. 

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5571054

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Been snowing off and on since 7:30am  .10"   Car and driveway were coated nicely.  Now that the sun is higher up it's all melted there and is starting to melt on the grass as well.  Will be fun if we get some squalls later on.

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Maybe the S coast will get it after all. That's what I envisioned yesterday across srn CT and RI, but it didn't quite get going there.

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Some radar images and satellite images look like the storm is pivoting with the developing CCB portion and other images it looks like it is sliding east too fast!

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13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. A snow shower obs thread.  

Had some good shower activity this a.m. but it's a melted memory now.

George Hadley says get used to it. 

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Moderate snow shower in Stratford around noon for about ten minutes. Tiny flakes followed by a moment of big, pretty dendrites at the end. Accumulated a trace on all non-pavement only to be annihilated by the sun within 15 minutes.

Snow-8252.jpg

Snow-8258.jpg

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