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Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

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40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

weird how it just craps out as it moves east.....

All models have it getting sheared as it moves east. Still a lot of uncertainty with this. I would be happy with 2-4 by me near 84. 

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59 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM at 84 meanwhile has practically no indication this would come north of the PA/MD border 

Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May

The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however.  Usually is somewhat too flat.  We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days.  This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows.   There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more.  I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually 

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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however.  Usually is somewhat too flat.  We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days.  This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows.   There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more.  I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually 

I thought we had 6 inches of snow with 2/23/08.

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May

I’m worried euro trended south last night so let’s see what it shows at 12z

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8 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said:

12z ECMWF date 1-22-2021
-----------------------------------------------------
hr-by-hr updates

hr54-60hr energy more consolidated than 00z
hr72 north of 00z
hr78 same position as 00z
hr84 a bit weaker than 00z
hr90 the backend trail energy is trying to charge this storm's vorticity or atleast is long and connected to the next's storm vort
very weak storm for CNJ is the final call on this ECMWF run

Not a great sign two weak runs of Euro 

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10 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said:

12z ECMWF date 1-22-2021
-----------------------------------------------------
hr-by-hr updates

hr54-60hr energy more consolidated than 00z
hr72 north of 00z
hr78 same position as 00z
hr84 a bit weaker than 00z
hr90 the backend trail energy is trying to charge this storm's vorticity or atleast is long and connected to the next's storm vort
very weak storm for CNJ is the final call on this ECMWF run

Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models.

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21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not a great sign two weak runs of Euro 

Meh its an outlier being so dry

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56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Meh its an outlier being so dry

calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ?:facepalm:

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My 3P/22 impressions: have looked at everything that's available via 12z/22 modeling except no GFSv16.  In any case,  I may be 6 hours too fast on the start and 1-2" too high on the high end of the ranges provided this morning. Advisory or low end warning most of forum except n of POU-DXR-HVN (drying out?).  Shorter duration with primary impact Tuesday morning commute. snow ratios should 10 to 12 to 1 north of I80 tho no guarantee. 

Understand the concern about dry air eating up snow near I84 se NYS and especially CT/MA where greatest doubts. QPF is not impressive but NAEFS holding it's own...maybe south by 20 MI at most. I like the 500MB vort max translating east or east southeast across northern PA Tuesday. Unsure whether we can get a deep saturated layer up here between I80 and the NYS border? so the I80 axis should do well with at least WAA snow Mon night and east then sewd movin rh from southern NYS and northern PA midday Tuesday. My end time still close to 6P Tue but may lag a little per EC.  Waiting this out a little longer. I think the NAM will become more helpful with 12z/23 cycle...still a little out of range and 84 hr NAM not known to me as the best of its output. 

 

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18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ?:facepalm:

Yes

Euro isn't the model it used to be. Are you hugging it ?

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Yes

Euro isn't the model it used to be. Are you hugging it ?

No - but 3 1/2 days out all options are still on the table as far as I am concerned - everyone should be doing that IMO..........

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

weird how it just craps out as it moves east.....

Tons of dry air as it encounters confluence and the wave itself dampens out under the block. Essentially gets squeezed to nothing. 

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37 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Dry and further south, looks like all models except gfs trended south today 

Ukie is a few inches

Euro is insanely dry

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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is a few inches

Euro is insanely dry

As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January.

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