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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves.

The OP delays the 12z EPS big dog look to day 10+, and wave #1 could be a medium dog if trends a little south.

* not sure what happened to the little dog it may have been eaten by the big dog

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together.  

it’s the same wave though the cmc bombs and we’ve been tracking for the 28/29  but the euro is slower with it so it’s a day later then on the cmc.  But that’s not the same as kicking the can to the “next” storm.  Same storm just slower to progression this run.
 

 I am a little disappointed it tracks the system on the 26th north of us but it wasn’t that far north that it might not adjust back.  

 

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@Ralph Wiggum @yoda there is a closed h5 low in the Ohio valley tracking east about to cross right over us. Surface low will reorganize along the coast. That was about to crush us in the next 12 hours but the run ended. Figures. 

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EPS still tracks the wave on the 26th to our south. We’re definitely on the edge flirting with the rain snow line but it’s not as far north as the op. 

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6z GFS looks quite different at h5 and south from 0z.  Doesn’t punch the ridge up to MI hr 144 on this run.  Then 28th gives us some blue.  Not JWB but another step in the right direction  

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The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

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I didn't think the Euro was that bad at day 7 threat . Takes the primary through north W. Va . Not much adjustment is needed for a fun storm with such a long lead . Quick peak at Eps ....it definitely looks to be south of the op. 

Ninjd...I see PSU mentioned the Eps . Good enough for me. Once we get inside 144 esp 120 then discreet tracking begins for me personally. 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 

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Just now, mappy said:

not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 

Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks ;)

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

I've made it this far in life with a 4% success rate...buyer beware

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks ;)

have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh

Nope it's specifically about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

gonna start calling you Nostradamus 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh

And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner :lol:

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner :lol:

dont ever change, friend.

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal

probs

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

No one is perfect, however, I do believe solely from a SSWE association there have been areas of unusual cold and snow far South in the latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere . 

There were a few recent examples the last ten days.  

 

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28 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th

image.thumb.png.355bf6506056466ea6738745789df49c.png
 

image.thumb.png.fd46697b5a39e084ce9f47b954d98cce.png

Not really South.  First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z.

Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1. 

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Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So do we use the other thread starting at 12z?  Only 7 days to go!:drunk:

We need to bring it home! BTW—My fridge has been stocked up and ready since 2016. 
 

Eta: Meh-who we kidding. It’s always full of deliciousness. :lol:

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22 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? :lol:

lol yes. love it.

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”.

“Region” defined as I81 west to the edge of the LWX CFO

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Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. 

 

EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park)

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11

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