RedSky Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves. The OP delays the 12z EPS big dog look to day 10+, and wave #1 could be a medium dog if trends a little south. * not sure what happened to the little dog it may have been eaten by the big dog 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together. it’s the same wave though the cmc bombs and we’ve been tracking for the 28/29 but the euro is slower with it so it’s a day later then on the cmc. But that’s not the same as kicking the can to the “next” storm. Same storm just slower to progression this run. I am a little disappointed it tracks the system on the 26th north of us but it wasn’t that far north that it might not adjust back. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 @Ralph Wiggum @yoda there is a closed h5 low in the Ohio valley tracking east about to cross right over us. Surface low will reorganize along the coast. That was about to crush us in the next 12 hours but the run ended. Figures. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 EPS still tracks the wave on the 26th to our south. We’re definitely on the edge flirting with the rain snow line but it’s not as far north as the op. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 19 28/29 threat I like that distribution pattern very much. Reminds me of something 7 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rhino16 Posted January 19 I did like that 0z CMC run. Was interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted January 19 6z GFS looks quite different at h5 and south from 0z. Doesn’t punch the ridge up to MI hr 144 on this run. Then 28th gives us some blue. Not JWB but another step in the right direction 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19 The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MocoMike Posted January 19 6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 19 I didn't think the Euro was that bad at day 7 threat . Takes the primary through north W. Va . Not much adjustment is needed for a fun storm with such a long lead . Quick peak at Eps ....it definitely looks to be south of the op. Ninjd...I see PSU mentioned the Eps . Good enough for me. Once we get inside 144 esp 120 then discreet tracking begins for me personally. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 19 Just now, mappy said: not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better. I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming. I've made it this far in life with a 4% success rate...buyer beware 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Correct I've been saying the 20th for several weeks have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, mappy said: have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh Nope it's specifically about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 19 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. gonna start calling you Nostradamus 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, mappy said: have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mappy said: gonna start calling you Nostradamus I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner dont ever change, friend. Just now, leesburg 04 said: I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal probs 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 19 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it. No one is perfect, however, I do believe solely from a SSWE association there have been areas of unusual cold and snow far South in the latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere . There were a few recent examples the last ten days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 28 minutes ago, MocoMike said: 6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th Not really South. First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z. Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted January 19 So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19 Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”. 1 2 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, mappy said: gonna start calling you Nostradamus If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraff Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go! We need to bring it home! BTW—My fridge has been stocked up and ready since 2016. Eta: Meh-who we kidding. It’s always full of deliciousness. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? lol yes. love it. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted January 19 Anyone talking about the zr threat from the GFS and somewhat from the Euro? It looks like 1/3" of freezing rain with that first thump. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted January 19 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gonna go on a limb here and say that by the end of the month the entire region tallies somewhere between 8-20”. “Region” defined as I81 west to the edge of the LWX CFO 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dallen7908 Posted January 19 Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park) 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
