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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty certain nobody that I am aware of bet on sustained deep winter cold for any point during this Nina season. A shot here and there. And for the umpteenth time, we don't want nor need deep vodka cold for weeks on end. 

That seems like basically what we've had this January so far lol. And at the very least there's some cold on the continent when compared to this month. Like CAPE said, it can certainly bleed east back and forth as long as our NAO wants to play ball and hinder any SE ridge. 

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It was plenty cold last Sunday . The storm just got suppressed.  Plain bad luck .

Not that long range 2m temps is something to hang your hat on but Eps has mby BN 11/15 days next 2 weeks . Just need a storm with a half decent track.  Its January right . It's almost always "cold enough" air nearby unless it's a total shut out pattern .

 

Yes but the air masses have not had enough depth to the cold.  It’s one thing to be chilly with a north wind during suppressive flow. It’s another for the cold to have enough depth to remain cold enough during the ridging and southerly flow you get ahead of any amplifying system. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This war between the cmc/euro v gfs can’t go on too much longer because the major differences wrt to how they handle the the ridge which leads to the different solutions is evident by only about 100 hours. One side has to cave soon.  

I know who I have my money on.

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