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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Hard to get anything other than -PNA in February lately. .. check this out well, 2018, 2019 and 2020 all had anomaly in same place. 

2018.png

2019.png

2020.png.bcfa3e710ee9ff5ceebfc3d885487b74.png

 

Yes but the only shutout was last year with a raging positive AO/NAO.  Even 2018 there was that one wave that cut through the ridge and dropped 2-4” across the area.  2019 with just some very weak ridging up top we came close to a decent run. That on wave did cut across and drop 3-6” across the area. And we just missed one other to the north. I got 5” from that one. And early March a couple more waves hit my area but just missed DC. So let’s project that pattern with a little more NAO help. It would be warm at times when the SE ridge flexes. But it should also have opportunities for waves when it is suppressed. 
 

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29 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The GFS insists that the Euro is wrong. 

Not really,..it trended towards the same progression with the lead energy going ahead and then the main energy coming east. It just has stronger lead wave which is likely bs. It’ll cave 
 

para does same thing but is a big va hit 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Well if that doesn't give you pause in trusting this model 

To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break

euro went a 993mb last night to a 1013 today in one run. I thought models were suppose to be more consistent/accurate in blocking periods

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break

I'll let you be fair those last few runs are jacked

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

just looking at the models now for the first time today. I am impressed with how this missed us

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

The initial moisture is from the stj influx. The shortwave weakens imo because it’s stuck between 3 features, the block. (Hp), 29th wave right behind it, and the 50/50 sitting there. 

F0031850-E75A-49BA-99C4-E7E0C187E263.png

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pera looks like the euro only slightly further north. Enough to get DC into the goods. I’m still fringed. That’s how I roll up here. Gfs is alone in not washing out the lead wave. Expect it to cave 

I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_dprog-2180800.png

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I wonder if BAMWX is going to tweet the 12z eps change today? I know they do it everytime it goes warm. But here is day 13 change from last night

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_dprog-2180800.png

But if they do make sure it’s with a color code for every half degree F so a 2c day 13 change looks like this huge crazy bust. 

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EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 3 runs (College Park)

90th percentile:  9 15 12

80th percentile:  6 10 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9

60th percentile:  4 5 8

50th percentile: 3 4 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4

20th percentile:  0.7 0.6 3

10th percentile:  0.5 0.3 1

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