Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[CAPE]

 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

 

The GOES-5 which went only to 240 hours had the same general movement into Northern  Canada  at that time stamp and then going to the GFS continues that motion further into Northern Canada.   

[frd]

 

Arctic air into the Canada Prairies,  finally. 

 

 

[Heisy]

46 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Latest update, more consolidation to keep the AO negative longer. 

 

See that little spike of the AO near the 29th? More reason that one has legs, could be our Archambault event. I mean, it’s the psu storm first of all, but just sayin’.

[WxUSAF]

Please the other thread for the 25-26th storm threat starting with today’s 12z runs. 28-29th threat stays here.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Both 6z gfs runs kind of caved to what the Euro and CMC were showing at 12z yesterday. Just not as cold. I actually feel pretty good about our chances. 

This is the one issue.  Everything is trending towards the favored euro progression but the one problem is the temps are also trending warmer. The 6z eps is a good example. It doesn’t go out far enough to see the end result...but at 144 it’s definitely further south with the low track with less ridging in front. But it’s also still slightly warmer on top and ahead of the wave. What once looked like a colder setup is quickly becoming marginal again. Doesn’t mean it won’t work. It’s a really good pattern. But it means less margin for error. 

[psuhoffman]

I debated where to put this because it affects the day 7 threat but it’s more about the pattern in general and the other thread will be flooded with 12z analysis so it’s going here.  
 

Wanted to illustrate the issue with temps using the 6z gfs because imo it’s a perfect example of DCs problem.  

this is yesterday...

look where the flow is from...straight out of the Arctic.  No it’s not a direct cross polar straight from Siberia shot but this is not a pac puke airmass.  It’s a polar airmass.  It’s just not that cold!
 

3 days from now...still a flow from the Arctic 

And look at that pattern!!!! That’s textbook PERFECT west based NAO Rex block, epo ridge bridge.  This should dump a truly cold airmass into the northeast.

150 hours...

and this is a critical point in the setup...but still not a pac puke issue.  Yea pac air comes around the base of the western trough and pumps into the ridge from the south but that’s unavoidable (news flash you can’t completely block the pacific it’s kinda HUGE and upwind) and our source regions to our north are still being fed with air from the Yukon.  The pac jet is buckled and there is no straight firehose pac puke blasting in.  But...look at the thermals 

Look at 90 hours, after 5 days of direct flow from the Arctic through the Yukon...

THATS IT?????  Where’s the beef??? That’s a pathetically weak shallow and non expansive cold pool given the setup and the problem comes after when we need that cold to resist the southerly flow ahead of an approaching wave from the west.

Now look at day 6

that cold was too weak to resist that northern steam wave from wrecking the thermals. And yes the flow ahead of the wave is from the south but the dominant flow to our north is still from the Arctic and yet no cold. Just a bubble of near normal air over northern New England. Nothing to resist the surge north of warmth ahead of the next wave.  

So now we see the effects on the specific surface systems.  
 

Wave 1...

That’s not an over amped or particularly north wave yes just not cold enough.  If there was a true deep cold airmass the snow line would be where the blue line is.  We don’t really want a weaker souther wave that would just be bad for everyone.  Much weaker and frankly there is no heavy snow anywhere.  It just isn’t cold enough.

Wave 2

again the track and amplitude are fine.  Any weaker and it’s not a significant storm anywhere.  It’s just not cold enough...even with the storm to the southeast of us and “cold” pressing its rain to the NW for many.  

I used the 6z gfs and I haven’t looked at any 12z guidance yet but honestly this post is about the general pattern and fact the thermal profile continues to be warmer then it should be regardless of what the source of the airmass is! That doesn’t mean we won’t get snow from this...but the lack of a truly deep cold airmass is going to make it harder.  Less margin for error on every wave.  The 6z gfs was a perfect example because both those waves would have been snow in DC simply with a colder airmass.  There wasn’t a longwave pattern problem it was a “it’s late January where is the cold” problem.  As for the “where is the cold” issue I don’t know what to say.  Before someone points out the minor flaws no this isn’t the coldest most direct Siberian express Arctic shot ever.  I didn’t say that.  But it’s not pac puke.  It’s a flow from the Yukon in late January.  If that’s no good and we need a direct straight flow from Siberia direct over the North Pole well...ok how often do we ever get that?  This setup shouldn’t be too warm to snow.  

 

[frd]

This might work. Round three. 

 

[jaydreb]

We always have to wait for the storm after the storm.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

They are lining up like ducks on a pond. Not sure how anybody isn’t encouraged.

[frd]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

They are lining up like ducks on a pond. Not sure how anybody isn’t encouraged.

Temps. 

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

They are lining up like ducks on a pond. Not sure how anybody isn’t encouraged.

It’s encouraging that we will have multiple shots, but so far the op guidance (both GFS and Euro) suggests that many of us will be on the wrong side of the boundary.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

They are lining up like ducks on a pond. Not sure how anybody isn’t encouraged.

For you and me the temp issue I pointed out above isn’t as potentially fatal a flaw.  But if I lived on the coastal plain and I kept seeing rain with a low off the coast in late January with a non pac puke airmass...I mean that’s kinda depressing!   

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

This might work. Round three. 

 

That was close to being something bigger too I thought.  Perfect H but the low gains too much latitude...push that south a bit more and we’d be in game.

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

For you and me the temp issue I pointed out above isn’t as potentially fatal a flaw.  But if I lived on the coastal plain and I kept seeing rain with a low off the coast in late January with a non pac puke airmass...I mean that’s kinda depressing!   

btw lol...there is no way you average 50 inches a year. Basically when you get snow...i get snow unless its like isolated Snow showers

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

For you and me the temp issue I pointed out above isn’t as potentially fatal a flaw.  But if I lived on the coastal plain and I kept seeing rain with a low off the coast in late January with a non pac puke airmass...I mean that’s kinda depressing!   

It's really something...and there really is little explanation why this is happening (other than the thing that must not be named). Is there anything else that could be causing it?

[psuhoffman]

@winterwxlover14 even that cmc run last night that had a fully phased 974 bomb off the coast the snow in VA was very marginal and only due to the extreme dynamics.  I mean what does it take anymore????!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@winterwxlover14 even that cmc run last night that had a fully phased 974 bomb off the coast the snow in VA was very marginal and only due to the extreme dynamics.  I mean what does it take anymore????!!!

Alright if you're frustrated it must really be a problem, lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I debated where to put this because it affects the day 7 threat but it’s more about the pattern in general and the other thread will be flooded with 12z analysis so it’s going here.  
 

Wanted to illustrate the issue with temps using the 6z gfs because imo it’s a perfect example of DCs problem.  

this is yesterday...

look where the flow is from...straight out of the Arctic.  No it’s not a direct cross polar straight from Siberia shot but this is not a pac puke airmass.  It’s a polar airmass.  It’s just not that cold!
 

3 days from now...still a flow from the Arctic 

And look at that pattern!!!! That’s textbook PERFECT west based NAO Rex block, epo ridge bridge.  This should dump a truly cold airmass into the northeast.

150 hours...

and this is a critical point in the setup...but still not a pac puke issue.  Yea pac air comes around the base of the western trough and pumps into the ridge from the south but that’s unavoidable (news flash you can’t completely block the pacific it’s kinda HUGE and upwind) and our source regions to our north are still being fed with air from the Yukon.  The pac jet is buckled and there is no straight firehose pac puke blasting in.  But...look at the thermals 

Look at 90 hours, after 5 days of direct flow from the Arctic through the Yukon...

THATS IT?????  Where’s the beef??? That’s a pathetically weak shallow and non expansive cold pool given the setup and the problem comes after when we need that cold to resist the southerly flow ahead of an approaching wave from the west.

Now look at day 6

that cold was too weak to resist that northern steam wave from wrecking the thermals. And yes the flow ahead of the wave is from the south but the dominant flow to our north is still from the Arctic and yet no cold. Just a bubble of near normal air over northern New England. Nothing to resist the surge north of warmth ahead of the next wave.  

So now we see the effects on the specific surface systems.  
 

Wave 1...

That’s not an over amped or particularly north wave yes just not cold enough.  If there was a true deep cold airmass the snow line would be where the blue line is.  We don’t really want a weaker souther wave that would just be bad for everyone.  Much weaker and frankly there is no heavy snow anywhere.  It just isn’t cold enough.

Wave 2

again the track and amplitude are fine.  Any weaker and it’s not a significant storm anywhere.  It’s just not cold enough...even with the storm to the southeast of us and “cold” pressing its rain to the NW for many.  

I used the 6z gfs and I haven’t looked at any 12z guidance yet but honestly this post is about the general pattern and fact the thermal profile continues to be warmer then it should be regardless of what the source of the airmass is! That doesn’t mean we won’t get snow from this...but the lack of a truly deep cold airmass is going to make it harder.  Less margin for error on every wave.  The 6z gfs was a perfect example because both those waves would have been snow in DC simply with a colder airmass.  There wasn’t a longwave pattern problem it was a “it’s late January where is the cold” problem.  As for the “where is the cold” issue I don’t know what to say.  Before someone points out the minor flaws no this isn’t the coldest most direct Siberian express Arctic shot ever.  I didn’t say that.  But it’s not pac puke.  It’s a flow from the Yukon in late January.  If that’s no good and we need a direct straight flow from Siberia direct over the North Pole well...ok how often do we ever get that?  This setup shouldn’t be too warm to snow.  

 

I completely get your argument here...the DEPTH and EXPANSE of cold air or lack thereof. But one day it seems some are suggesting that just cold enough will work. The next day its a case of not cold enough need colder.

I personally like the potential setup. Yes, the higher in latitude, the better with these gradients. But with the 50/50, a rex block over or near Baffin Bay, a flow coming out of the Yukon this all *should* work for places nearby both of us. Im not absolutely loving it to the point im 100% locked in, but confidence is starting to increase.

Its nice to be tracking again. And as always, timing of ridges, trofs, and shortwaves will make all the diffs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@winterwxlover14 even that cmc run last night that had a fully phased 974 bomb off the coast the snow in VA was very marginal and only due to the extreme dynamics.  I mean what does it take anymore????!!!

LOL, is there another winterwx”lover” on this forum? That’s pretty close to copyright infringement LOL.

You know how I feel about this. I want precip. I’ll take my chances with temps.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

btw lol...there is no way you average 50 inches a year. Basically when you get snow...i get snow unless its like isolated Snow showers

I don’t. I average 40. And yes we share a lot of common storms. But I usually do better.  What did you get in late March 18?  I got 15”. What did you get in December?  I got 10”. And while it’s not common for me to get a big storm that you get blanked it’s common for me to get 1-3” marginal events (like the one before the big storm in Dec) where you get rain. And those add up. The math is what it is. I dunno what to tell you. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t. I average 40. And yes we share a lot of common storms. But I usually do better.  What did you get in late March 18?  I got 15”. What did you get in December?  I got 10”. And while it’s not common for me to get a big storm that you get blanked it’s common for me to get 1-3” marginal events (like the one before the big storm in Dec) where you get rain. And those add up. The math is what it is. I dunno what to tell you. 

He doesn't even know how to get to Manchester, he's also at around 300' ASL. The rain snow line has been creeping towards Leesburg for years now in marginal events pretty sure not yet up towards Central/Upper Carroll county 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, is there another winterwx”lover” on this forum? That’s pretty close to copyright infringement LOL.

You know how I feel about this. I want precip. I’ll take my chances with temps.

I fully agree but would we feel that way if we lived in the DC UHI near sea level?  Or if I was on the eastern shore like CAPE?  I was being more general and region wide with that comment. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I completely get your argument here...the DEPTH and EXPANSE of cold air or lack thereof. But one day it seems some are suggesting that just cold enough will work. The next day its a case of not cold enough need colder.

I personally like the potential setup. Yes, the higher in latitude, the better with these gradients. But with the 50/50, a rex block over or near Baffin Bay, a flow coming out of the Yukon this all *should* work for places nearby both of us. Im not absolutely loving it to the point im 100% locked in, but confidence is starting to increase.

Its nice to be tracking again. And as always, timing of ridges, trofs, and shortwaves will make all the diffs.

This falls under “2 things can be true”. I’m pretty sure some in the mid Atlantic (and not just the mountains) are going to get snow next week. I am also pretty sure that the warmer then they should be thermals will mean some get rain that would have had snow in a more historically typical thermal profile given the same exact setup. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I fully agree but would we feel that way if we lived in the DC UHI near sea level?  Or if I was on the eastern shore like CAPE?  I was being more general and region wide with that comment. 

That’s true but also like saying would I feel that way if I lived in Savannah. It’s fine to base comments as region wide but that’s gonna be hard to do when it comes to model analysis. Where a person lives very much colors their viewpoint of model runs. And while some of the areas mentioned are currently rainy on the latest models, at least they are closer to a winter event. I doubt they would feel better about their chances if nobody in the whole region had a chance.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He doesn't even know how to get to Manchester

Tell him to just sniff for the snow smell and head in that direction. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s true but also like saying would I feel that way if I lived in Savannah. It’s fine to base comments as region wide but that’s gonna be hard to do when it comes to model analysis. Where a person lives very much colors their viewpoint of model runs. And while some of the areas mentioned are currently rainy on the latest models, at least they are closer to a winter event. I doubt they would feel better about their chances if nobody in the whole region had a chance.

Fair enough...but in my post I did say “this is DCs problem”. I was really focused on why the DC area has been REALLY struggling.  It wasn’t as much for our locations. 

[H2O]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fair enough...but in my post I did say “this is DCs problem”. I was really focused on why the DC area has been REALLY struggling.  It wasn’t as much for our locations. 

Brother, let me tell you about DCs struggles.  Its real and not spectacular.

[WxUSAF]

D9 event looks decent on GEFS. Good banana high and nice SLP track although it doesn’t seem to turn the corner up the coast, although closer to that than previous runs.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

D9 event looks decent on GEFS. Good banana high and nice SLP track although it doesn’t seem to turn the corner up the coast, although closer to that than previous runs.

It hasn’t really liked that event much until recently. It was hinted at by the pattern and the EPS started really seeing it 48 hours ago but gefs us just starting to get the idea.