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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This war between the cmc/euro v gfs can’t go on too much longer because the major differences wrt to how they handle the the ridge which leads to the different solutions is evident by only about 100 hours. One side has to cave soon.  

I know who I have my money on.

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The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Bob chill never liked complicated ways to get snow

 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. 

Ok that was scary 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The cmc has a healthy trailing wave again with more separation then gfs but that lead NS wave wrecked the thermals in front of it. There is a nice high coming in but dunno if it will get in. That lead NS wave makes this a complicated setup. I don’t like complicated. 

Its trying to transfer at 222... that 1040mb H should be a roadblock

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Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo.  And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. 
4055500D-8920-4BF7-8203-D9E164FD4493.thumb.png.7add2c0940b9cd769de3eabcbcef5cfc.png

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo.  And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. 
4055500D-8920-4BF7-8203-D9E164FD4493.thumb.png.7add2c0940b9cd769de3eabcbcef5cfc.png

What else did you want to see on the CMC?  850 and 2mT?  That's on PW

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo.  And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. 
4055500D-8920-4BF7-8203-D9E164FD4493.thumb.png.7add2c0940b9cd769de3eabcbcef5cfc.png

I'm pulling a Ji here, but it's rather comical that the three models that seem to leave us void of snow (GFS, Para, Canadian) for the 26th threat all decide to paste us with snow for the day 10 threat. We're bringing the boulder up the hill again, let's see how it ends this time

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I hate to pull a JB but I’m going too...the progression I went with was made before the ops showed this at the surface and was based on what I felt was the most likely surface result given the longwave pattern.  Then some runs started showing exactly that. So long as there is still some support I’m sticking to it. It still makes sense.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well the cmc definitely didn’t cave to the gfs fully. I don’t like that lead wave but nice progression after. Can only see h5 and slp so far but looks good Imo.  And ends with this...obviously likes my idea of an amplifying system on the coast around the 28/29th. 
4055500D-8920-4BF7-8203-D9E164FD4493.thumb.png.7add2c0940b9cd769de3eabcbcef5cfc.png

To bad it's the CMC on it's own....for now.

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Just now, Ji said:

I'll take what jan 28 is selling and call it a winter

Just let this go the way the pattern says it should one freaking time and let’s call it a winter. This was never supposed to be a good year. Yea it’s frustrating to underperform a -AO winter. But if we can just get one big one...end the drought then relax and whatever else comes after is gravy. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

To bad it's the CMC on it's own....for now.

The euro has been flirting close to that idea for a while and just missing the final phase by a thread. But it’s been in the ensembles. Some crazy members in there. It’s not the majority but enough evidence for me to stick to my call. 

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