stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah, Euro is a bit more snowier than most of the other guidance.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Feb 15 was the extreme example. We keep taking giant hits off the no snow for you pipe all winter while parts of the NE looked like Jackson Hole. But that arctic front and "super squall" flipped the switch HARD. Could do no wrong afterwards. It wasnt even a "prime pattern" as it was ripping fast progressive and almost entirely EPO driven. Give us 5 of those winters in a row and we'd be lucky if 2 were solid. Unless you like ice of course. I do but only a foot or more. Wx loves to embed winning and losing streaks. It's just how it is. There is basically no such thing as a smooth "climo winter". I'd prefer one of course but a hot streak is better when they happen. We had a streak of pretty good years from 2010-2016, which was rather unusual for this area. I’m just happy to get 2 WSW for 2 weeks in a row. I think the last time Fairfax had more than 3” was the Bob Chill storm of 2019... or was it 18.... Regardless. The past 4 years have been awful, but I’m feeling good about the rest of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, Euro is a bit more snowier than most of the other guidance.. Is the ice storm gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, snowmagnet said: Is the ice storm gone? It changes over to mixed precip Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nasty storm as depicted on the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: We had a streak of pretty good years from 2010-2016, which was rather unusual for this area. I’m just happy to get 2 WSW for 2 weeks in a row. I think the last time Fairfax had more than 3” was the Bob Chill storm of 2019... or was it 18.... Regardless. The past 4 years have been awful, but I’m feeling good about the rest of February. Man, I loved that 2019 storm so much. 11". My own personal jackpot and an unexpected one at that. The problem is my yard only gets a personal jackpot a few times a decade so I'm kinda fooked for a while rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, snowmagnet said: Is the ice storm gone? No, just that the snow is a bit longer duration than before. Ice is still very much there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: Nasty storm as depicted on the Euro. Yeah it sure is, best part is we never get a ton of rain. Snow to ice to dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah, there's a decent difference compared to the 0z Euro wrt how the PV lobe presses down on the Central/Western US. It's a fair bit more east compared to 0z, and it's also more elongated (which I'm not sure if that had any effects with the ridge or surface depiction for us, but some of the more slightly strung out solutions for that had less of a ridge pump up so I'd imagine it's a positive). Good trends that were pointed out by the 6z EPS too. Would love to see that continue, but the ensembles haven't handled the PV aspect well.. at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The euro is a sick run for mid-late week. We all love those types of events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: CAD holding strong into Friday ...nice ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro is a decent thump of 2-4 inches 10:1 then ice, then dry slot. Maybe if it's as cold as advertised for that thump, ratios could improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 @psuhoffman what do you make of euro taking pv Wesr ? I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: This cold looks legit. Temps at start low mid 20s and stay between 20-26 for several hours while the waa snows on us . Nice look for sure. Let's see if the overrunning snow gets stronger. Right now its generally light to moderate on both GFS and Euro. Like to see a nice strong moisture feed into the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Nice look for sure. Let's see if the overrunning snow gets stronger. Right now its generally light to moderate on both GFS and Euro. Like to see a nice strong moisture feed into the cold. Agree 1000%. Overrunning is "boring" in some ways because the only mechanism for boom is time under the feed. Otoh, overrunning is low stress, (relatively) easy to track, and rarely gets rug pulled in the closing 48 hours on in. Maybe my memory is selective but I swear up and down the 70s & 80s bread and butter snow was 2-4/3-6 overrunning events. I remember watching old school 16k resolution radar tracking the "green feed" right from the smokey mtns to my yard. I'm in on some redux on that stuff 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 WB 12Z EURO thru Day 7. ( snow excludes Sunday.) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm very intrigued by next weekend. A ton of cold on the GFS in particular and something maybe coming up out of the Gulf after the midweek event. Canadian and Euro ops aren't as on board with the cold and keep it out west, especially the Canadian, but their ensembles are much more favorable to it. H5 look needs a lot of work, but maybe there's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, T. August said: 12z GFS completely dropped the frigid temps in the MA. It does however have a big dog lurking at like 216-270. Not completely. Still right around 0° next Monday morning 2-15 with windchills well below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro wants to do another overrunning event towards the end of its run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Big cold into the northern plains at 186 . Almost the whole conus Going to be something huge for the middle of the country., we might be too far SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 could be a pretty massive ice storm down in VA... Also, Half inch of ice up near Allentown on top of all the snow they’ve had and will get sounds pretty terrible to me. That’d be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to be something huge for the middle of the country., we might be too far SE. That’s an archambault event imo. Has a really good 50/50 & Hp early on but the trough is linked too far into the northwest and it takes too long to come east. Long way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to be something huge for the middle of the country., we might be too far SE. Most likely we miss the brunt but a few very cold days are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: could be a pretty massive ice storm down in VA... Also, Half inch of ice up near Allentown on top of all the snow they’ve had and will get sounds pretty terrible to me. That’d be wild. I’ve been watching carefully. Been years since central va has got a bad ice storm. Not a fan especially if it’s going to be cold. In 94 we had bad ice. No power for three days. Folks just to our north west almost 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm sure this has been touched on in the last week because we always talk about it when arctic boundaries wobble around nearby but deep cold (especially with blocking) kinda sucks. Playing with fire is what we want. Sure, clean storms with long duration snowpack is unlikely but so is bluebird teens and single digits for days on end. We've seen a quite a few mid/lr arctic blasts on models last 5 years and very few of them verified with the depth and staying power as shown out in time. Hard to think the next week or so will be any different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Eps with a healthy mean fr end snow hit for midweek Hard not to like the simplicity of that evolution with a solid feed of moisture into damn cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps with the Artic Express coming into the conus day 6/7 What a pattern. So much to track. I still think anything is on the table. Can we finally get a below average winter month for temperatures? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps with a healthy mean fr end snow hit for midweek Maybe I'm greedy but...you'd hope we can get a chance for something more than front end the next couple weeks...I mean shoot, we're still overdue for a footer. If great blocking in Feb can't give ya that...not sure what will. I mean 3-6" events are nice, and had we not been so long with our a big snow, I'd more readily take it (but I'll still take it). But those kind of events...I'm not sure they produce more than advisories half the time (in the cities, anyway) unless they go boom. Again, nice scenery, and snow is still snow...but man I'd like a bona-fide warning or two at least. Been so long! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really. I would truly think, and hope, that based on the pattern at some point during the next 15 days we will have an all snow event with high ratio snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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