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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

BUF is at +7.5 for January for temps, pretty crazy. 

It’s odd though as most of that are the night time lows. Daytime averages probably haven’t been too far off the Mark but I would wage the nights are most of that 7.5 positive 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

It’s odd though as most of that are the night time lows. Daytime averages probably haven’t been too far off the Mark but I would wage the nights are most of that 7.5 positive 

Makes sense.

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Oh, look at that. The temperatures over performed today. Shocker.

Models need to be programmed to take into consideration what seems to be a rapidly warming climate.

Snow is melting one day after it falls again...still a couple inches though. Thankfully and hopefully we get a good little thump tomorrow to make it a super wintry weekend.

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, look at that. The temperatures over performed today. Shocker.

Models need to be programmed to take into consideration what seems to be a rapidly warming climate.

Snow is melting one day after it falls again...still a couple inches though. Thankfully and hopefully we get a good little thump tomorrow to make it a super wintry weekend.

That’s my biggest beef with the models. They don’t learn. Daytime high temps are always too low and snowfall is always too high. As soon as AI gets integrated into these things we’ll see rapid improvement. We’ll also be really disappointed with accurate snowfall maps- cut them in half or so. 
These models readily lend themselves to AI corrections. It would only take a season or two. Tons of data is available. In fact, they could run them historically and have corrections built-in within hours. 
I wonder if there’s a way to monetize that because it’s going to be drastic. Probably already occurring in the commodities hedge fund computers. Big money in oil futures based on temp forecasts. I’ve always thought this forum could beat that market. 

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20 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z EPS mean QPF for the mon-tues storm...

Screenshot_20210121-153550_Chrome.thumb.jpg.03fcd69eb823c2294d0be49a555e39e3.jpg

.31 is about 5” roughly at 15 to 1. It will be plenty cold enough

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45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That’s my biggest beef with the models. They don’t learn. Daytime high temps are always too low and snowfall is always too high. As soon as AI gets integrated into these things we’ll see rapid improvement. We’ll also be really disappointed with accurate snowfall maps- cut them in half or so. 
These models readily lend themselves to AI corrections. It would only take a season or two. Tons of data is available. In fact, they could run them historically and have corrections built-in within hours. 
I wonder if there’s a way to monetize that because it’s going to be drastic. Probably already occurring in the commodities hedge fund computers. Big money in oil futures based on temp forecasts. I’ve always thought this forum could beat that market. 

AI?  As we all are aware (I think), wx models are deterministic algos based on known physical properties, rules, and physical-mathematical relationships/laws...they are not sentient or machine learning beings (Replicants!).  Pretty sure I would  not want some sort of "learning bias" interjected...as it would invariably be highly dependent on a set of predetermined instructions (temp has been higher/lower than model output for the last x of y runs...so let's adjust...). Not sure where you would be going with this other than creating Skynet for weather?

Having said that, if u do create Skynet I'd like to get in on the ground floor like the Winklevoss twins did with Bitcoin. ;)

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New map..

If some of guidance is correct with a multi lake connection overnight and favorable 270-280 flow then these numbers may be a little to low...Both "notable" events this year they had pulaski at about half of what actually verified..

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (10).png

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Here's the KBGM Clown for the event.  Matt and I are mocked again. Why can't we at least be in the yellow snow? ;)

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Here's the KBGM Clown for the event.  Matt and I are mocked again. Why can't we at least be in the yellow snow? ;)

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Right over my house in skaneateles. Nice.  Doesn’t happen often so I’m skeptical...

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Yeah I saw it. I didn’t think anything could be worse than the last 3 weeks but the next 2 look just as boring. If we don’t get any snowfall we probably won’t see much if any at the lower elevations into February. At least the ground will freeze.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

New map..

If some of guidance is correct with a multi lake connection overnight and favorable 270-280 flow then these numbers may be a little to low...Both "notable" events this year they had pulaski at about half of what actually verified..

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (10).png

NWS BUF try so hard don't they, lol!

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21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I saw it. I didn’t think anything could be worse than the last 3 weeks but the next 2 look just as boring. If we don’t get any snowfall we probably won’t see much if any at the lower elevations into February. At least the ground will freeze.

GFS is in suppression mode. We've seen it before many times over the years.   If other models join it for the mon/tues system, I'll take the GFS more seriously. Until then...I wouldn't get ratchet over the prospects next 2 weeks.

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Another day/night of radar watching lol

Getting started on a WSW flow. 

WUNIDS_map (66).gif

I wish things would shift south earlier.  It’s killing my sleep habits haha.  

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Anyone know what's up with the GFS parallel not loading completely or at all for certain runs over past few days? Is it an issue with pivotal weather site or is it the model itself?

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2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

AI?  As we all are aware (I think), wx models are deterministic algos based on known physical properties, rules, and physical-mathematical relationships/laws...they are not sentient or machine learning beings (Replicants!).  Pretty sure I would  not want some sort of "learning bias" interjected...as it would invariably be highly dependent on a set of predetermined instructions (temp has been higher/lower than model output for the last x of y runs...so let's adjust...). Not sure where you would be going with this other than creating Skynet for weather?

Having said that, if u do create Skynet I'd like to get in on the ground floor like the Winklevoss twins did with Bitcoin. ;)

See! You get it. I like your equation. Why wouldn’t you want them to self correct? We see these biases and they go untouched- they simply persist. 
Don’t get me started on Bitcoin. I’ll have to kick it to the banter section. “The monetary value is based on mining an equation that grows tougher over time”:axe:

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2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Here's the KBGM Clown for the event.  Matt and I are mocked again. Why can't we at least be in the yellow snow? ;)

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Ha! Yep! I'm RIGHT on the 6 inch line. If I sit here watching the radar and the band runs just west of us the entire event.......................................................................

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

See! You get it. I like your equation. Why wouldn’t you want them to self correct? We see these biases and they go untouched- they simply persist. 
Don’t get me started on Bitcoin. I’ll have to kick it to the banter section. “The monetary value is based on mining an equation that grows tougher over time”:axe:

BTC.X ... It's an interesting banter topic...do we trust math more than Uncle Sam's full faith and credit...?  ;)

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Wonder if we’ll see a broad area of light snow develop across the Niagara Frontier tonight as the cold front approaches. Upstream radars are fairly active over southern Ontario. Probably won’t amount to more than an inch or 2, but anything is welcome at this point IMBY to cover the grass again. 

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