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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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After a small LES event today into tomorrow it looks like a cutter goes into the northern Great Lakes with a possibility of a redeveloping low in the Northeast. This will allow a chance at a stronger LES event at the end of the weekend. 

NE_Snow.png

This weekend

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring
the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility
for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night
through Sunday night.
Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the
northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air
advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by
Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level
trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will
begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There
will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with
lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds
align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows
are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will
be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending
the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday,
while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows
into Monday.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

Looking further ahead it looks like the EPO goes negative around the 20th. The other indices below

pna.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gifnao.sprd2.gif

With a -EPO and -NAO it should set a battleground for synoptic systems somewhere near our area. I still see some cutters, but we should get into a more active wintry pattern. 

Looking even further out below

EPS

giphy.gif

GEFS

giphy.gif

 

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEFS for snowfall

384

Wow most of the members show quite a bit of snow through the period. I’m still amazed how long the 3 main indicies are in the best place for us and it’s been so warm. I guess going forward if the EPO isn’t negative the other 3 don’t matter much. 

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50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

After a small LES event today into tomorrow it looks like a cutter goes into the northern Great Lakes with a possibility of a redeveloping low in the Northeast. This will allow a chance at a stronger LES event at the end of the weekend. 

NE_Snow.png

This weekend

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring
the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility
for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night
through Sunday night.
Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the
northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air
advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by
Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level
trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will
begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There
will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with
lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds
align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows
are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will
be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending
the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday,
while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows
into Monday.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

Looking further ahead it looks like the EPO goes negative around the 20th. The other indices below

pna.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gifnao.sprd2.gif

With a -EPO and -NAO it should set a battleground for synoptic systems somewhere near our area. I still see some cutters, but we should get into a more active wintry pattern. 

Looking even further out below

EPS

giphy.gif

GEFS

giphy.gif

 

It didn’t get past me that the NWS has the northern half of Erie county in the “better” accumulation for the weak event tonight.

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Boy, weekends storm is funny. Clipper that tracks north and pops up SE only to retrograde NW. Wolfie, you’re the only person who that works for. Surprised to see the synoptic paint around Bing (well, not THAAAT surprised).

Yeah it due to the position of the CF as the wave rides up it..All about timing..If the CF is a little quicker it could be more of a WNW flow so we'll see lol

9khwbg_conus (1).gif

 

9lhwbg_conus (4).gif

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15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It didn’t get past me that the NWS has the northern half of Erie county in the “better” accumulation for the weak event tonight.

Tonights event is all northern Erie. Like I said last night the way the wave is coming in it favors SW even SSW wind. You should be in a good spot for a few inches. 

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37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

If the front slows down a bit we may be able to cash in more synoptic snow.. Going to be close but when isn't it..

The Christmas eve front certainly slowed - hoping this one does as well.

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At least this lackluster winter isnt confined to just our area.  The whole country is really struggling this year.  Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up.  

Capture.JPG.636fc0ac29e482cceecbf04ae2accfe6.JPG

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

At least this lackluster isnt confined to just our area.  The whole country is really struggling this year.  Some areas really county on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up.  

Capture.JPG.636fc0ac29e482cceecbf04ae2accfe6.JPG

The south is having a record year which to me is very odd as we are at +6 for January yet its snowing in Texas/Louisana somehow! A really odd pattern. 

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47 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

At least this lackluster isnt confined to just our area.  The whole country is really struggling this year.  Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up.  

Capture.JPG.636fc0ac29e482cceecbf04ae2accfe6.JPG

Real happy my Northern Rockies trip was last year. BC is the only game in town

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GFS is dropping the PV to us with changing wind directions! Look at those lower pressures over Hudson Bay. Classic. 

-EPO allows the cold air to come down from Canada and the -NAO allows the blocking and retrogradation of lows to Hudson bay. Wayy out there, but Buffalos blockbuster LES events have a similar setup to below image. 

850th.conus.png

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

At least this lackluster winter isnt confined to just our area.  The whole country is really struggling this year.  Some areas really count on snowfall....could be a tough spring and summer out west if things don't shape up.  

Capture.JPG.636fc0ac29e482cceecbf04ae2accfe6.JPG

Europe

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS is dropping the PV to us with changing wind directions! Look at those lower pressures over Hudson Bay. Classic. 

-EPO allows the cold air to come down from Canada and the -NAO allows the blocking and retrogradation of lows to Hudson bay. Wayy out there, but Buffalos blockbuster LES events have a similar setup to below image. 

850th.conus.png

Thank you SSW...

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