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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Temps are ugly with that track on the CMC...Pa is the place to be

Significant snow is northern PA...its not even close.  NW of 95 gets a little ice if that's your thing...but the significant snows aren't even close to us...

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4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

DT posted this snowfall map late last night for the storm early next week. Seems like he is thinking the heaviest stuff might be in SW Virginia.    :wacko:

140584611_3669559643091267_5576854280446472698_n.png

did you follow any of the last several pages?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Significant snow is northern PA...its not even close.  NW of 95 gets a little ice if that's your thing...but the significant snows aren't even close to us...

Yeah...Seems we need a perfect balance of sorts with some NS help to limit how amplified the SS as gets.

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup suppressed...which isn't what I was expecting.  Guess it's better than norther warmer rainer.  Let's see if the GFS it's back to being on it's own or is it sniffing something out.

Unfortunately the Canadian also is onboard the GFS express. It looks much different over Canada at 500h but not enough.  I'm supposed to be a Winter weather Expert and the last two years, there has been no storms to write about. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

did you follow any of the last several pages?

I have. I don't think DT will be right. 

That being said, he has been right in the past when I thought he would be wrong. :popcorn:

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GEFS mixed results for Mon-Tue but has some nice hits for follow up wave on the 29th.  Storm after the storm. 
 

Edit: Sorry, looked at 6z.  I’ll show myself out.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Good call

This lack of deep cold is becoming more then just frustrating.  And there is no legit excuse (other then the elephant we don't want to bring up) this time.  Yea the southern wave amplified some here but we want an amplified wave or else its squash city and no one gets a big snowstorm.  But the problem is there just isnt a deep enough cold airmass to resist the southernly flow ahead of any amplified wave.  This west to east setup relies on there being cold in front of waves.  But there is no problem with the longwave pattern.  There is even a TPV lobe coming across RIGHT ON TOP of the system on the CMC suppressing the flow some and its still not enough...because there isn't enough cold to resist even a fairly mild southerly flow.  Its not like this is some phased 970 bomb cutting up the ohio valley.  There is no excuse for this warm a solution other then the obvious one.  Almost everything is going right from a pattern POV and its still not cold enough.  I dont know what to say.  

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Unfortunately the Canadian also is onboard the GFS express. It looks much different over Canada at 500h but not enough.  I'm supposed to be a Winter weather Expert and the last two years, there has been no storms to write about. 

I thought the GFS looked somewhat different than the Canadian for the first storm. Am I missing something here?

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8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Yeah...Seems we need a perfect balance of sorts with some NS help to limit how amplified the SS as gets.

No we needed that NS wave to not exist at all...even on the weaker solutions it presses the high pressure out and damages the thermal profile in front of the southern wave some... This time of year I thought we could survive it...we are getting really picky here...but I guess we need like totally every little thing 100% perfect to snow anymore and that little bit of NS wave out ahead damages the temps in front and allows the southern wave to cut.  

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Right now we just need a storm. Get that and then we can worry about temps. Most guidance has a storm. I can live with that for now.

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1) the euro still has a winter storm

2) Lets move on the 28th/29th

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8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I have. I don't think DT will be right. 

That being said, he has been right in the past when I thought he would be wrong. :popcorn:

We do have another 6 days...that’s an eternity this winter..so no reason for any panic or celebrating.  

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i could see this storm screwing us with 24 hours of game time. Just a small shift in track makes all the difference

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Right now we just need a storm. Get that and then we can worry about temps. Most guidance has a storm. I can live with that for now.

This is where I'm at right now.  Just keep the storm on the map and roll the dice.  Hopefully as we get closer, it gets back to last night's 0z runs

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No we needed that NS wave to not exist at all...even on the weaker solutions it presses the high pressure out and damages the thermal profile in front of the southern wave some... This time of year I thought we could survive it...we are getting really picky here...but I guess we need like totally every little thing 100% perfect to snow anymore and that little bit of NS wave out ahead damages the temps in front and allows the southern wave to cut.  

At a minimum, even if we get shutout, the amount of time and resources studying and analyzing this pattern has been amazing, Hour after hour, day after day, night after night, reviewing each model run and helping break down this block and ultimately what it could or couldn’t deliver. We will always have that and no one can take that away.

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No towel tossing. Long way to go. But this is what’s maddeningly frustrating and is making this so much harder then it should be to get snow from this pattern. Look at the 12z cmc and 6z para gfs as the system moves across. 

740B57A3-ACC2-44D9-AA81-E1E6382262D4.thumb.jpeg.c1b9caaa953c1efeff1acc66358b20cf.jpeg
850DCB30-68A8-4EAC-B101-1C331538BA0C.thumb.jpeg.8e7717a16a0ad6a43998d0946f4d749e.jpeg

Where is the snow?  It’s January 25 with a polar in origin airmass and a block over the top of this wave and the only place getting snow is under the upper level dynamics NW of the low. Where is the typical WAA snow shield to the N and NE????  This looks like what you expect a storm in late March to look like not Jan 25 with a block and northerly flow on top. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well it hardly drops any precip soooo

I guess we don't need a bidet then. 

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44 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I have. I don't think DT will be right. 

That being said, he has been right in the past when I thought he would be wrong. :popcorn:

You posted yesterday's 12Z Euro snowfall map and used it as evidence that DT thinks the heaviest snows will be in SW VA?  That's not what he thinks, that is what the Euro thought 24 hours ago (although those two things may be one in the same).

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1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

DT posted this snowfall map late last night for the storm early next week. Seems like he is thinking the heaviest stuff might be in SW Virginia.    :wacko:

140584611_3669559643091267_5576854280446472698_n.png

Looks like 2018

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Better 

You said it earlier for this one,  For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc. 

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

You said it earlier for this one,  For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc. 

How bad was the UK?  Hopefully not as far north as the CMC!

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Big big ECM run impending let's hope servers everywhere hold up to the power drain 

We should prepare for something...

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How bad was the UK?  Hopefully not as far north as the CMC!

It’s been too far north recently at this range so I wouldn’t sweat it that much, concerns are valid. Let’s hope a good euro run

F30BE195-7DF8-44BD-AA0E-B2827CB683CB.jpeg

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