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January Long Range Disco Thread

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range.  This looks VERY supportive.  

supportive.thumb.png.be64c67400071edf62ae0ab19b1f7fe4.png

Looks like a texbook pattern that checks all the boxes.  

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

what was his concern if you don't mind sharing and don't say because it's rain at his house

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

Always best to be cautious in our region

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. 

i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing

Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome.

That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means.  Next run!

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome.

That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means.  Next run!

its also amazing how quickly he posted that on FB after the euro came out. And you guys think Im negative lol

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Just now, Ji said:

its also amazing how quickly he posted that on FB after the euro came out. And you guys think Im negative lol

He is wise and really knows the local climo, and seems immune to hype. I don't think that is being negative.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

image.jpeg.58b5783680ef278f17f85881a90a604b.jpeg

80 hours out:scooter: . Not yet brother . DC on south still in the game for now . We'll see where h5 is at tomorrow evening.  If no positive changes by then ...its probably a southern /se Va event but still worth tracking.  Nothing else in the medium range to track well  inside 7 days .

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

80 hours out:scooter: . Not yet brother . DC on south still in the game for now . We'll see where h5 is at tomorrow evening.  If no positive changes by then ...its probably a southern /se Va event but still worth tracking.  Nothing else in the medium range well  inside 7 days .

If it somehow ends up snowing here, I will throw a party around the firepit with weenies and unlimited 120s for all.

Y'all will have to sleep in the woods tho.

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its not coming north.....there is a better chance it moves more south than more north

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Not reading good or bad, but it's funny. 18z GFS is vastly different at h5 than 12z.  It's gonna be a shitter run, but at least we can still count on the fact that it's gonna be different in 6 hours.

 

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Just now, Ji said:

its not coming north.....there is a better chance it moves more south than more north

Wait- this isn't a great look?

gfs_z500a_us_18.png

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If it somehow ends up snowing here, I will throw a party around the firepit with weenies and unlimited 120s for all.

Y'all with have to sleep in the woods tho.

Not even the deck . Isn't that over 6 feet away with a insulated wall in between lol

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A veritable disaster.

i lost zero inches of snow from the 12z gfs run

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If it somehow ends up snowing here, I will throw a party around the firepit with weenies and unlimited 120s for all.

Y'all with have to sleep in the woods tho.

Be careful:guitar:. HH Para gets snow into Maryland 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Be careful:guitar:. HH Para gets snow into Maryland 

Ok you got the deck, or the covered front porch even.

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the 18z gfs has some of the nastiest looks at 500 to get us any kind of storm

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