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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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All these models giving my farm in Stuart VA a mini-jackpot of 6-7" makes me think I will be working from there come Friday morning instead of Kernersville.  Either way the trends for the Triad have no where to go but up after the 18z NAM played reverse psychology on the forum.

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Fun fact- The elephant in the room is that BL temps are pretty terrible for this event - the main difference with the RGEM is that it's totally colder; not really much else going on. 

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Clearly going to come down to where the banding sets up and who gets the rates to overcome the BL problems. The idea is pretty set at this point. It'll come down to gametime to see where.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is nice to Triad folks 

 

Yeah, but is that the Triad in the central part of the state or the Triad in the Piedmont or the Triad in the western foothills? :arrowhead:

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1 minute ago, NCSU_Pi said:

Yeah, but is that the Triad in the central part of the state or the Triad in the Piedmont or the Triad in the western foothills? :arrowhead:

Winston Salem, High Point, Greensbruh

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Does it look like places in NW Georgia like....Paulding County Dallas ga ,Polk county Floyd  county Rome ga ,areas  get a hit from  either of these two events?

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

See I always thought it was Greensburl

Greensburl is part of the Triangulation with Middle-Low-Point and Silo City.

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The 18z GFS is definitely a better run. I only wish I could post weatherbell maps. GSO jackpots.

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Afternoon disco from GSP:

Quote
Broad high pressure to our north will help to lock the cold air mass
into the region. As a result, the mountains will be predominately
snow through the event, except perhaps during the onset of
precipitation. Further east into the Piedmont it`s more up in the
air. It seems snow will prevail though north of I-40 (although a mix
is possible at times) with more of a split between I-85 and I-40,
with rain prevailing south of I-85 (although rain may mix with snow
at times overnight even here). A slight northward trend in the model
guidance suggests that a weak warm nose may press into the region
sometime Friday night. This will likely act to increase
precipitation rates and possibly lead to a narrow strip of
sleet/freezing rain. Snow accumulations of several inches are
possible across many mountain locations with this event (especially
near the escarpment to southern mountains). Light accumulations are
also in play east of the mountains, mainly from the foothills to I-
40 corridor, although can`t rule out light accumulations south to
the I-85 corridor. That all being said this event is still several
days out and winter storms are notoriously hard to predict, so stay
tuned!

 

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One thing to point out is this is not going to blanket accumulations. This is going to be more banded and scattered I think in terms of decent amounts. It will largely be rate driven without question.

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