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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not much outside the mountains....

 

28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Man with a track like that , it's a shame it's not much moisture outside the mountains...

 

27 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, this is just terrible trends for everyone outside the mountains. Seems to be a common theme the last few winters. We need an absolute perfect set up to squeeze out an inch in many places now. Could it be global warming? Does anyone know?

 

Several of you have really wonky perceptions of where the mountains actually are in NC.  A lot of the western piedmont of North Carolina (essentially north and west of Charlotte) actually do quite well on this model run of the ECMWF-HiRes.  Plus, there is a decent snow signature in a horizontal line from Hickory to Raleigh.  This looks pretty good to me, with round 2 just emerging for early next week.

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

 

 

Several of you have really wonky perceptions of where the mountains actually are in NC.  A lot of the western piedmont of North Carolina (essentially north and west of Charlotte) actually do quite well on this model run of the ECMWF-HiRes.  Plus, there is a decent snow signature in a horizontal line from Hickory to Raleigh.  This looks pretty good to me, with round 2 just emerging for early next week.

Maybe we're counting the uwharries. There's also a small hill going into Person County. Maybe I'm still in the foothills and dont realize it. 

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39 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, this is just terrible trends for everyone outside the mountains. Seems to be a common theme the last few winters. We need an absolute perfect set up to squeeze out an inch in many places now. Could it be global warming? Does anyone know?

Trends have been great for my backyard.

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Models have trended perfect for the jackpot zone to be situated along the Western nc/sc Border. Best forcing here plus cold enough mid levels and any elevation you have helps with the marginal surface temps. I could easily see places like long creek/cashiers/Brevard being the jackpot winners in this set up if the track holds. 8-12 inch totals seem reasonable here. 
 

definitley a shot for accumulating snow even down the i85 corridor in SC if that’s where the best banding sets up early Friday morning. I don’t think surface temps will be a major issue under the axis of heaviest precip. Really just depends on where that sets up and whether or not your far enough north and west to avoid the 850mb warm nose shown early Friday morning. (This warm nose goes away by 7-8am so even if it causes rain or sleet in the upstate there may still be a window of heavy snow from 8am until 10 or 11am if you’re under a heavy band). 
 

warm nose and surface temp issues look worse from Charlotte to Raleigh, imo. Gonna take some luck in that area to score accumulations but it definitely possible in the set up. (Have to be in the heavy band and that is looking like it’ll be south of Greensboro to Raleigh) plenty of time for adjustments though. 

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There are certain message board posters whose only purpose is to come in and say that it’ll never snow in xyz location.  They do it year after year after year.  I’ve done my best to block them.  If you guys could avoid replying to their posts it would help me out a lot.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming!

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Bump south on this run of the 12z Euro Ens Mean...heights with the storm wave over MS/AL, heights thru Florida, and heights with the 50/50 low all bumped south

 

Yeah, means are up about 25% in my neck of the woods. Not an awful run. 

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Also there’s definitely some sleet soundings early Friday morning on the NAM. Looks like the changeover line will include a 10-15 mile wide band of sleet for a while at least in the upstate, (assuming the NAM is right). 

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Just now, burrel2 said:

Also there’s definitely some sleet soundings early Friday morning on the NAM. Looks like the changeover line will include a 10-15 mile wide band of sleet for a while at least in the upstate, (assuming the NAM is right). 

I noticed the same thing in the immediate border areas around CLT. 

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I will stick with 4-8 (locally 12) in the NC mountains, 3-6 foothills, 2-4 Triad, 1-2 slushy inches east of GSO to Raleigh and add 2-4 for Rocky Mount through Virginia Beach as my second rough call. Tomorrow I will begin the maps if warranted and the chance doesn't vaporize.

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23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I will stick with 4-8 (locally 12) in the NC mountains, 3-6 foothills, 2-4 Triad, 1-2 slushy inches east of GSO to Raleigh and add 2-4 for Rocky Mount through Virginia Beach as my second rough call. Tomorrow I will begin the maps if warranted and the chance doesn't vaporize.

What kind of totals would you say for Danville,  Southern VA?

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44 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

There are certain message board posters whose only purpose is to come in and say that it’ll never snow in xyz location.  They do it year after year after year.  I’ve done my best to block them.  If you guys could avoid replying to their posts it would help me out a lot.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming!

I see what you did there... ;):D

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13 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I see what you did there... ;):D

Clever girl! I am just a logical thinker, and I believe the likely outcome for most storms in much of NC is rain. I love snow as much as anyone else but this storm is not trending in a positive direction for many including my neck of the woods. Now back to your weenie programming :+) Good luck to all.

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

AccuWeather being very bullish...

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.

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Quick question -- why, with so many great mets and analysis on this board -- do some post maps from media outlets? Is it just for entertainment purposes?

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14 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful.

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Quick question -- why, with so many great mets and analysis on this board -- do some post maps from media outlets? Is it just for entertainment purposes?

Yes.

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A word of caution on SREFs -- a few years ago in March, SREFS had DC in for 8+, Cantore went to the National Mall -- similarly in a borderline setup with regard to BL temps. It rained. Zero snow. SREFs fail quite often. Don't get overly excited about them.

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

A word of caution on SREFs -- a few years ago in March, SREFS had DC in for 8+, Cantore went to the National Mall -- similarly in a borderline setup with regard to BL temps. It rained. Zero snow. SREFs fail quite often. Don't get overly excited about them.

Very true, it's just another item to disect and sometimes can be a precursor to a solid NAM run. 

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