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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

jeez. I hope not. Sorry.  I am sour.

Nothing like missing a huge snowstorm to our south during the heart of winter.

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I guess I need to grow as a weenie because by no means, in no way shape or form, will I cheer on a mid-Atlantic blizzard whilst we continue one of our most mundane, heart of climo shit streaks ever. Nope. I will be hyping 0z EURO, if we can’t have the snow, nobody can. Lol.

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1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I guess I need to grow as a weenie because by no means, in no way shape or form, will I cheer on a mid-Atlantic blizzard whilst we continue one of our most mundane, heart of climo shit streaks ever. Nope. I will be hyping 0z EURO, if we can’t have the snow, nobody can. Lol.

Deal with it.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beers before 7 AM?

Lol... I was replying to the Ginex's comment saying there a lot of 2-4s. Wasn't sure what he was referring to

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1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As a blockbuster, sure.  But we can move the blues 75 miles in four days and get the season's second best event for the south coast.

gfs_apcpn24_us_17.png

Quite unlikely considering that is the most favorable piece of guidance and the block isn’t going anywhere. Euro is significantly southeast of that. 

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the trough position is ideally a little further west....so I can certainly see it going out to sea...TBH, at this point, I would be shocked it provided significant impact to the region.

Disagree.

Disagree with what ?

..." Is it likely probably not. .."

- the point was just not to do this 86 autopilot act that's really based upon emotion - not you per se but it's palpable and equally annoying.

Boxing Day was a significant cyclone that was routinely taken E much in the same way and corrected N in the last 48 hours ...sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings out to a non-suspecting demography ...and the regulars in here rushing to make up for the 5 dayls worth of 'model cinema heroin' they missed out on...

Granted, there's been modeling upgrades along these tail-end of Moore's Law in technological advancement years since, ... in theory, improving the A.I. engine of the models...But, not joining in with that faithful congregation inside that temple of our electronic gods, in an era that's inherently got almost N/S in the mid ranges ..might just be a healthy degree if incredulity and skepticism - 

So, if you disagree with that?  Okay - I got no problem with disagreeing  LOL...

Look, I'm not a meat ball either.  This winter is a donkey dong boning for the snow enthusiasts.  I am a sympathetic, empathically aware human - unlike the girl of my dreams that recently turned out to be a sociopath ...but I digress - 

 

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11 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

You as well

Well clearly I have lol. It's not happening and good for the MA getting some snow. They have had an awful several years while we continued to pull storms out of our bum bums. So time to pay up...that's just how it goes. It stinks, but these seasons do happen.

 

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Rather ironically ... there is a prediction I can make that 100% certain in this roughly three week stint of -NAO ... whilst an unpredictable, unmanned fire-hosing frenzy spills in waves from off the Pacific:

- eyes will roll at the following op-ed     Oh,...okay.  I'll employ mercy and keep it to a few bullet points this time )

Multi agency PNA monitoring suggest either a mode change to modestly positive, or, a neutralization of the erstwhile negative character of that index.

The NAO obolishes ..or, at least this current rendition of it - being a west based exhausted elephant that's decided to set it's ass down over eastern N/A. 

Rising PNA of any kind during an NAO block decay sends a modest Archembaultian 'correction event' vibe through the hemisphere.   This would time during the January 28 - thru about Feb 5 span of time.  I wouldn't be argumentative if anyone advanced discussion over anything in that time frame already on the charts, or in surmise ...were guessing something may emerge in the guidance.

As a quick exit point, there are semblances of the -EPO in some operational cycles that I'm seeing occasionally as of late. These may be figments of an underlying detection for the former change in the PNA ... sort of an obscure confidence that 'some'thing is trying to snap one end of the bed linen over the next 10 days.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Saw 6z Reggie had good snows even north of pike. I’m sure 12z will go NAM with partly sunny 

12z NAM was hideous. This event has been flip flopping almost every run though. SW CT is best but still can’t rule out some snows getting further northeast. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM was hideous. This event has been flip flopping almost every run though. SW CT is best but still can’t rule out some snows getting further northeast. 

I’m honestly thinking nothing for anyone NE of HFD. The radar is going to look terrible and shredded like poc marks on a face . Probably sun thru cirrus 

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM back to nothing Tuesday

I looked across the last four cycles of that model and frankly ... it's amusingly sensitive to call that 'back to nothing' - hahaha.. I mean, the other way was almost meaninglessly more. 

The variations between those runs were quantum scaled nuances ( hyperbole but to make the point).    

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I guess I need to grow as a weenie because by no means, in no way shape or form, will I cheer on a mid-Atlantic blizzard whilst we continue one of our most mundane, heart of climo shit streaks ever. Nope. I will be hyping 0z EURO, if we can’t have the snow, nobody can. Lol.

It’s not that serious friend. It will snow again in NewEng.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not that serious friend. It will snow again in NewEng. 

February when the NAO relaxes 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

February when the NAO relaxes 

Maybe but a bad month plus hopefully humbles some. The fact is, it’s not a historically anomolous of a dry stretch even though it feels like the winter walls are caving in. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m honestly thinking nothing for anyone NE of HFD. The radar is going to look terrible and shredded like poc marks on a face . Probably sun thru cirrus 

Very possible. I’m not committing northeast of HFD yet. I’d be fairly optimistic for at least an inch or two in SW CT though with a chance for advisory if things go well. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

February when the NAO relaxes 

I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year.  It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter.  The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly.  

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I know it’s hard to get excited for Lr events this year, but last nights runs definitely added intrigue for the 1st-2nd. 
 

00z euro:

902DE776-C1B6-4EFF-81E6-AD95BD85576D.thumb.png.49e1f3bc79993a43c31a281b0cd6e1d4.png
 

Eps, cmc ens, and gefs all look favorable for that time period as well. 

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