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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, this is a mid-Atlantic special cut from the cloth of 1979 and the 1980s and 2000s, not the 2016s and 2010s. I should really learn though, that whenever we have these -5 sd AOs, the mid-Atlantic bears the brunt of the Archambault event.

Not even just that....1999-2000 was +NAO/AO...but it was one my three primary ENSO analogs (1970, 2000, 2007). Sometimes you just pick up on a theme in analog seasons and run with it. Regardless of the polar fields, the these mixed-type mod ENSO seasons have a propensity to deal mid atlantic specials during Jan or Feb.

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18 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

This is a legit big kahuna for them... makes me insane. No measurable since mid-December, but now Baltimore gets a foot? Unreal

09-10 was the best for your perspective....they had so much snow they couldn't go outside to measure it

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Continue to see heights rise in Alaska towards the end of the ensemble runs...maybe February won't be so bad 

Probably a cutter as we shuffle that too. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably a cutter as we shuffle that too. 

Honestly, I'll take a soaker, at this point....anything but this-

Kevin's delusions of Sou 'Easters have never looked so appealing....if you don't look at the screen name next to the post, you lure your interest into being piqued.

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Remember with a powerful storm like the models are showing today, the region does not need a benchmark to ACK track for heavy amounts, the storm can be as far south as 75 miles of the benchmark.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably a cutter as we shuffle that too. 

yeah once that NAO breaks down....there will be nothing stopping the SE Ridge from flexing which will lead to the inevitable. Probably a SWFE followed by a full fledged rains to Maine cutter.

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39 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Continue to see heights rise in Alaska towards the end of the ensemble runs...maybe February won't be so bad 

I think it will be pretty good. Just a hunch. I thought Jan would be too though so...

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26 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

yeah once that NAO breaks down....there will be nothing stopping the SE Ridge from flexing which will lead to the inevitable. Probably a SWFE followed by a full fledged rains to Maine cutter.

The AO is supposed to stay negative FWIW. Also apparently the vortex is getting hit yet again. 

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7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NAM looks better for first storm.

I like the second one too.  Sharper trough out west with more downstream ridging....84 hr NAM, what can go wrong?

The 18z GFS is going to have a huge viewing audience.

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18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region. 

Which model are you referring to LOL

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Which model are you referring to LOL

 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region. 

 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region. 

Even the RGEM gets a couple of inches here.

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4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

ICON a tad better for Thursday.  Sharper trough, more interaction with the Ontario lobe.

Further south than all other guidance and faster.  Doesn't even give any love to the mid-Atlantic.

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Multiple models are starting to run that low pressure towards Cleveland now....hopefully it stops soon. Unless of course it brings the follow up system further north, then keep it up. It almost seems like the first system is leaving behind a boundary that tugs the second system along...the GFS kinda showed that at 12z. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big bump north on GFS. Need to get Euro on board. 

I understand why others feel differently, but I would rather grind that event to a pulp....just eviscerate it, and the faster the better. I don't even care about the snow..cover up Ginxy's dog terds with a couple of inches first, but get rid of it, thereafter.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand why others feel differently, but I would rather grid that event to a pulp....just eviscerate it, and the faster the better. I don't even care about the snow..cover up Ginxy's dog terds with a couple of inches first, but get rid of it, thereafter.

LOL. The 18z GFS takes a scalpel to Essex Co, ensuring we’re on the outside looking in. Incredible. 

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