CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps ...I dunno - but the top image I provided does not contain an SSW... when every year that has one, looks like the 2006 example I provided - or a closer approximation. I have also seen those warm 5 and 10 mb nodes pop off and not down well as I've been monitoring this shit for decades. They are not provable/statistically significant modulators prior to the onset of -AO... Again, the AO this time predates even those 5 and 10 hPas this year - I guess I respectfully disagree - I don't think we've had an SSW that matches the behavior set of historical inference. I think there are some coincident behaviors going on - ... we'll see how the rest of the year goes. Also, the QBO is not in the typical phase for SSW ...it's not a deal breaker or nothin... but usually the QBO is in the easterly phase - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 On that Jan 12-13 Euro threat, of all models giving that scenario support it's the JMA, lol. The JMA goes out to only hr 192, but the look of the isobars with its position south of LI shows it taking a due E turn at that point, unlike the Euro. Upper level winds support that on the JMA. This is so far out yet that it could still whiff as the other globals indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That is pretty impressive. Not sure what the CDAS stuff is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The other nearly pointless model analysis effort because it's D8 to consider ... better hope the S/W kicker over Iowa is legit, because that total wave spacing between California and NS is too long - that sucker could easily end up in Buffalo if it were not for that thing pushing it right along. Again .. day 8 yeah I know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 EPS is nice too for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah...I did, Scott, mention that I was 'waiting in the wings' because I am not sure if other agencies have a different take on things - This does not match the CDAS no LOL... Like I said, just going with those CPC conventional channels. Thing is, ...something is f'ed up with American agencies lately - not to be political, but I'm wondering if there's an econ. thing with the present DC admin ... CDC suspended calculating teleconnectors entirely, because as I was told by personnel there ... when the GEFs recently included all those new members it invalidated the EOF layouts and there is no recursive funding to fix them - made to be broken. No plan as to when that gets fixed, either - jesus Anyway, if that's more valid okay - no argument. But I've never seen the CDAS be off kilter - but, we've never managed to elect a Stallinistic fascist to president either so ...times are changin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It's been a few years since we've got a full blown region-wide blizzard warning. It's time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I did, Scott, mention that I was 'waiting in the wings' because I am not sure if other agencies have a different take on things - This does not match the CDAS no LOL... Like I said, just going with those CPC conventional channels. Thing is, ...something is f'ed up with American agencies lately - not to be political, but I'm wondering if there's an econ. thing with the present DC admin ... CDC suspended calculating teleconnectors entirely, because I was told by personnel there ... when the GEFs recently included all those new members it invalidated the EOF layouts and there is no recursive funding to fix them - made to be broken. No plan as to when that gets fixed, either - jesus Anyway, if that's more valid okay - no argument Oh I was just supplementing what you said and wanted to show the current forecasts. Yeah not sure what is up with the good ole USA guidance there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That is a Miller B look for sure near day 10. Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: D10 has what looks like a developing miller B threat....I had told Ray a few days ago that I thought we could have a better chance at a higher end system (like borderline HECS or better) after mid-month when the northern stream becomes more dominant...and Miller Bs are more common in northern stream dominant patterns. So while D10 is clown range, that kind of look should be more common going into the second half of the month. Miller A best followed by a Miller B beast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh I was just supplementing what you said and wanted to show the current forecasts. Yeah not sure what is up with the good ole USA guidance there? You know ...not to be a dink but, can we please ask that these people posting these SSW claims get more responsible about citing their sources AND that includes provisional examples - where allowable? People are getting information and jockeying for headline gaslighting and it's really getting annoying. But, my point is... we might have some idea wtf is going on with these source disparities/indicators therein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I think this would be the kind of pattern to get a category 3+ nesis event in, whether miller A or B. Powder keg, quite literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You know ...not to be a dink but, can we please ask that these people posting these SSW claims get more responsible about citing their sources AND that includes provisional examples - where allowable? People are getting information and jocking for headline gaslighting and it's really getting annoying. But, my point is... we might have some idea wtf is going on with these source disparities/indicators therein. Ha, Social media FTL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That was a pants tent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: That was a pants tent run. Now for reality checking ... eh hm - There's 8 days .... 8 ( in case your deaf ..heh) for that to fumble around get all kindsa fugged up - do you think the super-agency forces of fractals and reality will resist ?? LOL... obviously we all know this has no hope - but, I want to get the humor stream to fill to bankfull and spread out across the playground where rumor mills hangs out at the swing set ..so that this has any hope of being rescued when said agency in fact proves it cannot resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 You know... just looking at the operational runs - forgetting the GEFs or EPS for the moment ... that's a huge Archembault signal there - I mean, we go from a nebular failed -NAO ( ... NAO may in itself be real just bear with me...), to a complete PNA forced regime change - or it is thought. Whatever the reason the PNAP part of the PNA is definitely ...very rapidly entering a coherent positive circulation type ...really fast... That's like 2.5 days of that sequence used to reorient the entire synopsis, so what happens ....? Boom TV-NE transit for the starry-eyed dreamers - We'll see if it has legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Tip keeps reminding us that January 13th is 8 days from now. John, we learned to read the calendar in elementary school. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Where is Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a Miller B look for sure near day 10. Tasty. And beyond....that is a powderkeg look. That western ridge goes nuclear. Meridional flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That said ...definitely interested in the EPS ... The individual 12z GEFs members have mixed sentiments re the D7 ... but are much more colorfully ebullient about the D10 one... They have both tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I was joking with Ray the other night and mentioned how 2015 seemed to crop up out of nowhere - Maybe having the CDAS lie about the status for the thermal/pressure coordinates while the Euro Org has a 50 mb tsunamis are hugely inspiring forecast signals, huh - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where is Kevin? Still digging out from 6-10” on Sunday night. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Days and days... ...of model runs left 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, PWMan said: Days and days... ...of model runs left NARCAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 hours ago, dryslot said: 10 days left in the period, 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The mets are promising 7, maybe 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: The mets are promising 7, maybe 8. Yup Scott and Will have locked in an epic period going forward from there and i'm going to hold both there feet to the fire on it too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: D10 has what looks like a developing miller B threat....I had told Ray a few days ago that I thought we could have a better chance at a higher end system (like borderline HECS or better) after mid-month when the northern stream becomes more dominant...and Miller Bs are more common in northern stream dominant patterns. So while D10 is clown range, that kind of look should be more common going into the second half of the month. Yea, no argument from me there. That is the period to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Like 1978 left hook Miller a right hook Miller b knock out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NARCAN My Narcan maps will be out soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now