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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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GSP....... :ph34r:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Fri: The seemingly endless CAD event continuing early Monday appears likely to be eroded by a cold front and developing sfc low ahead of the upper trough covering the central third of the CONUS at that time. The front most likely will pass our area Monday night, into early Tuesday morning. 850mb LLJ preceding the front peaks near 60 kt into our lower Piedmont zones on both GFS and EC early Tuesday Even with the depicted nocturnal passage, the GFS manages to wring out up to 150 J/kg of SBCAPE, compared to about half that in the same area on the ECMWF. Near-sfc winds are a little veered, but still a period to watch, perhaps. Precip chances finally taper off in the wake of this front, and skies clear for a time, making part of Tuesday and Tuesday night our one break from active weather in this morning`s whole forecast. A dry and colder airmass will settle in behind this front. But then, the deterministic models are seemingly in good agreement on the aforementioned trough sharpening up as it swings in to the eastern CONUS later in the week, and depict Miller A-type cyclogenesis (or a close imitation) circa Thursday. This event still looks to bear some severe weather risk for the area; the GFS is quite bullish on scouring out the wedge, so it is more alarming in the severe weather sense than the EC, which keeps most of the area wedged in. A peek at some EC ensemble members does show a few which are more GFS-like. It`s a bit too early to place much confidence in this aspect of the forecast; the models which typically do better on temps at this range are suggesting the wedge will hold strong, so the forecast leans in their favor. Based on the current blended temp trends and vertical profiles, any mention of wintry weather in the medium range fcst is only warranted as a wintry mix at high mountain elevations.

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

GSP....... :ph34r:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Fri: The seemingly endless CAD event continuing early Monday appears likely to be eroded by a cold front and developing sfc low ahead of the upper trough covering the central third of the CONUS at that time. The front most likely will pass our area Monday night, into early Tuesday morning. 850mb LLJ preceding the front peaks near 60 kt into our lower Piedmont zones on both GFS and EC early Tuesday Even with the depicted nocturnal passage, the GFS manages to wring out up to 150 J/kg of SBCAPE, compared to about half that in the same area on the ECMWF. Near-sfc winds are a little veered, but still a period to watch, perhaps. Precip chances finally taper off in the wake of this front, and skies clear for a time, making part of Tuesday and Tuesday night our one break from active weather in this morning`s whole forecast. A dry and colder airmass will settle in behind this front. But then, the deterministic models are seemingly in good agreement on the aforementioned trough sharpening up as it swings in to the eastern CONUS later in the week, and depict Miller A-type cyclogenesis (or a close imitation) circa Thursday. This event still looks to bear some severe weather risk for the area; the GFS is quite bullish on scouring out the wedge, so it is more alarming in the severe weather sense than the EC, which keeps most of the area wedged in. A peek at some EC ensemble members does show a few which are more GFS-like. It`s a bit too early to place much confidence in this aspect of the forecast; the models which typically do better on temps at this range are suggesting the wedge will hold strong, so the forecast leans in their favor. Based on the current blended temp trends and vertical profiles, any mention of wintry weather in the medium range fcst is only warranted as a wintry mix at high mountain elevations.

So your saying we have a chance :)

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I know it's been a frustrating weather week in the SE, especially when Dallas is expecting blizzard conditions Monday morning.  There could be snow covering most of the U.S. next week except the SE and southern half of the West coast.  However, another round of anomalous cold air builds in Canada the last week of the February and is poised to move south.  I am not predicting another March 1980 storm but as crazy as this year has been, I wouldn't bet against anything at this point.  Heck, I am not even confident with what falls from the skies next Wednesday and Thursday.         

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