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Brian D

Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nice pencil thin band of snow on the northern edge of the precip shield at the end of the NAM.

Yeah. Hoping that expands nicely over the next few runs

 

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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If you recall the Feb 2019 icing, that's something we got burned by. Much of the guidance kept insisting on warming the boundary layer to above freezing even though surface winds were progged to remain northeast/east-northeast at the surface. Putting down snow cover and not melting it going into the event is a wild card that could point toward sfc temps verifying colder if we get a scenario like shown on the 12z Euro.

 

 

 

Yep... as long as that e/ne flow is there in the lowest couple thousand feet, there's a real possibility it would delay the climb above freezing at the surface.  Even if it did manage to stay AOB freezing for a longer time, it doesn't necessarily mean that accretion efficiency would be great the whole time as marginal temps and heavier precip usually makes it tough to build up a lot of ice.

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Whew pee you, the upper midwest/plains win again. They are simply getting the good out of this. That leftover piece looks like a real turd with no cold air left. Sloppy snow and a bad batch of freezing rain.

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Going to be a nail biter here in Peoria. 1st wave on most guidance minus UKMET/GEM misses me largely north and 2nd wave has the low nearly on me on most guidance. I'm expecting more ice than anything now and some plain rain. Unsure on snow potential. 

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10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

GFS actually weakened the low somewhat, stops the westward trend a little at least. 

It has to do with the pattern further north. The wave ends up shearing out to the east.

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Long way off  and lots can and will change
But talk about a dramatic cutoff!!!!
 
snku_acc.us_state_il_in.png&key=dad7cec58383067103f1fd465029de744493e9bf51f18ffd54d4b707529e14c6
I buy downtown Chicago having issues with a strong east or northeast wind during wave 2. Lake is still mild enough to cause problems immediately along the lake and a bit inland in a marginal air mass.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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51 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

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homer-e1513117272634.jpg

Damn. Well at least its something. Typical Indiana. Storm kind of reminding me of GHD 2011 in terms of track and precip types. Obviously it's not as intense as that but still

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Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying.  It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities.  Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying.  It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities.  Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast.

If it were to ever happen it would be this year on the last day of 2020. Lololololol 

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Anyone with access to the 18z Euro, what does it show?  That is if the run is in progress.  ICON is the furthest west and spells monster ice storm for multiple states.

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying.  It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities.  Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast.

Yea the euro has been over-amping and been far too west with a few systems this winter. It had the storm a few weeks ago that went just west of the apps, bombing out and tracking near Chicago 120+ hrs out. If I had to guess id say a track more like todays Canadian is more likely, possibly even more SE. I cant remember the last time a secondary tracked due north and northwest in the winter. Just hoping it doesnt shiat the bed and occlude/get shunted east too quickly.

Wish i was a player in the titan/packers game tonight. Nothing like getting paid to play in heavy snow.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying.  It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities.  Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast.

I'll go Cape Girardeau- Indianapolis- Toledo track. Pretty simple.

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Anyone with access to the 18z Euro, what does it show?  That is if the run is in progress.  ICON is the furthest west and spells monster ice storm for multiple states.

Only goes to 90hrs, but aloft would suggest it would end up potential south of 12z.

 

More ridging ahead of the closing off wave, however like the GFS, the northern stream is pressing in more across Canada.

 

 

.

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Nice LR discussion from Ryan at KIND.....

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

The second part of the storm system set to impact the region the
second half of the week remains the primary focus for the extended
and unfortunately at this stage of the game...is offering more
questions than answers on specific impacts for central Indiana on
New Years Eve and New Years Day.

A strong ridge across the eastern half of the country will be slowly
but steadily flattened by a strong upper low that will pinwheel out
of northern Mexico and across Texas Wednesday night and Thursday
before lifting north into the Great Lakes by late Friday. There has
been a noted westward shift in the model suite over the last 24 to
36 hours with respect to the upper low track due to more energy
aloft carving out the massive trough over the central portion of the
country and a strengthening of the upper ridge off the Florida
coast. The upper low takes on a negative tilt which pulls it further
west as well.

That being said...the model suite is all over the place with its
handling of the secondary surface wave set to develop along the
frontal boundary and lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley by late
Thursday. While there has been a westward shift at the surface as
well...the main operational models with the exception of the GGEM
are further west than the ensemble means. It should be noted that a
surface wave track due north or slightly east of north off the
Louisiana coast is a bit of a climatologically unfavorable track for
a surface wave. Just another point to toss into the jumble of
thoughts this afternoon. A general blend at this point is preferred
until better model agreement can develop.

So...what can we take away at this point 4-5 days out? Confidence is
high in a higher impact storm moving through the Ohio Valley and
central Indiana for New Years Eve and New Years Day. But that is
about all that can be said right now. The lack of model agreement
and fluidity of the entire suite lends no confidence into the
details of the forecast and impacts...namely precip type duration
and intensity. The storm will have access to a rich plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will ensure modest precip
amounts from Wednesday night into Friday. Expect rain to continue as
the precip type to start Wednesday night with the potential for some
wintry mischief on the northern flank of the precip shield late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low level thermals become
marginal. There is likely to be a lull in precip coverage on
Thursday before moisture returns with the approach of the second
surface low late Thursday into Friday. Storm track will become
critical at this point in determining precip type but the potential
for at least some snow and/or ice accums is a possibility that needs
to be considered. A track that ends up east would bring a greater
risk for either snow or ice but even should the track of the low
remain further west...an easterly flow in the low levels Thursday
night into Friday morning as the low approaches could present some
problems over the forecast area with an increased potential for an
icy mess in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet.

Expect at least another 36-48 hours before we can gain more clarity
on the details with this storm system and the likely impacts locally
here in central Indiana. The primary area of upper energy will come
onshore over California on Monday with better sampling of the
feature coming thereafter. At this point...prepare for a higher
impact winter storm over the Ohio Valley from the second half of
Wednesday into New Years Day with locally heavy rainfall...a wintry
mix or perhaps some accumulations of snow and/or ice all within the
range of possibilities. Dry and chilly weather will follow the
departure of this system for next weekend.

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