TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Good point! We’ll know later today I guess but I don’t he’ll commit until tomorrow. I'm just a bit skeptical right now of big totals. But @ORH_wxman said there is a solid banding signal. Is it mid level stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I really hope no one in the New England forum was expecting those... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm just a bit skeptical right now of big totals. But @ORH_wxman said there is a solid banding signal. Is it mid level stuff? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: S Corner of Robinson Street. Not far from the Dog track. Didn't matter much being on N side of town at all in R/S lines or Coastal fronts. I use to grow up wishing my Parents bought 5 miles NW in Easton Not far from me. I bought my house last year in a new development basically behind the dog track... off prospect hill st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Maybe I'm grasping at straws here, but if the 500-600 mb layer is the dendritic growth zone, shouldn't this signal heaviest snows north of the pike with a dryslot south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Maybe I'm grasping at straws here, but if the 500-600 mb layer is the dendritic growth zone, shouldn't this signal heaviest snows north of the pike with a dryslot south? It's likely closer to 700mb, but your thought process is on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's likely closer to 700mb, but your thought process is on track. Oh it varies? I didn't know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Tip remember the Blizzard of Jan 15 and the Boxing Day 2010? Both storms a trailing shortwave was forecasted to interfere with the lead shortwave in the overall long wave trough. The JAN 15 storm was forecasted by models seven days in advance, they lost it within the 4-6 day window and brought it back within 72 hours as the EURO caught onto first. The question was the interaction between the lead and trailing shortwaves. The 12z GFS today has improved the western Rockies ridging heights, but the shortwave is already entering the backside of the long wave trough. Again, I am not sold in either direction. There are three clear signs that make sense...1.) strong presence of arctic air in place and locked in by a strong -NAO block in Greenland and Iceland, and 50/50 low, 2.) there is a storm present and a lot of moisture involved, 3.) someone will see over 15" of snow, questions become placement of the track of the low and eventual H5 dynamics as the system passes 75w. Again, there will be a strong gradient in the precipitation shield. Someone will see deformation bands, someone will have a long duration event, and OES will prolong the event! Thanks for triggering him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 500mb is too high for the DGZ especially one in a winter storm that can produce a foot plus! The levels are likely a lot lower between 820mb and 675mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Oh it varies? I didn't know that Again the zone of best dendrite growth is wherever the -12 to -18C temps are layered. When lift dissects this zone, that is when ratios are best and snowflakes are dendrites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Oh it varies? I didn't know that It does. It depends where the layer that is between -12C to -18C resides. Since the airmass is fairly cold, this will be found lower than anything we saw during the storm we had two weekends ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I wouldn't call that a weenie call. He backed it up pretty well in his writeup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 And lift is measured in microbars, the lower the number, the greater the lift. -10 to -15 microbars are decent lift, while -30 to -34 microbars is extreme lift! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I just said the 18"+ was intended to be isolated ...its posters like this that discourage some of the pros that we'd like to attract. It wasn't a final call, regardless. Ideally I would have posted a first call today, but I work and have a family, so didn't have a choice. Jesus.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 You guys may fair very well with this storm. Looks like it may fall apart as it gets to my area. Hopefully one of the storms can be wintry for my area before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's likely closer to 700mb, but your thought process is on track. Yeah the euro would prob have a filthy band in the pike to rt 2 region based on the MLs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Also, what are the units of omega? I have no clue what that means. My guess is its some measure of lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I was just saying that the existence of that feature doesn't explain the GFS' handling of cyclogenesis compared to other models that are further north. I agree that look from the 12/10 06z run was more dynamic, but it also resulted verbatim in a rainstorm east of 91. the cyclone we see IS a response to the jet mechanics associated with the S/W - what you say has no logic or Meteorological/physical understanding ( then..). those jets in question are different because of the interference - so yeah..in fact, it IS causing the GFS handling the cyclone - the cyclone isn't coming from nothing - ..it's there BECAUSE of the GFS fields in the GFS - sorry... I can see this is going to aggravate you and I'll step out now ... I'll just say, you need to bone up how cyclones develop and why. What you said, bold is precisely and exactly wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 700 mb looks good too, thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Also, what are the units of omega? I have no clue what that means. My guess is its some measure of lift ubars - or Microbars 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: 700 mb looks good too, thankfully This is the best map used for deciding where the model feels the dry slots will be located! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the euro would prob have a filthy band in the pike to rt 2 region based on the MLs One tic back north would do the trick for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn't call that a weenie call. He backed it up pretty well in his writeup. 12-24" regionwide is expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is the best map used for deciding where the model feels the dry slots will be located! Kinda creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: 700 mb looks good too, thankfully does that imply a deform band from southern maine back to me, with subsidence down towards the Mass border and then another band around the pike and towards the south coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn't call that a weenie call. He backed it up pretty well in his writeup. I should have been a bit more conservative at that range, as I didn't account for the attenuation of the wave enough...but it's just a first map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One tic back north would do the trick for me. Yeah you were really close to where 925mb RH started to drop off on the OP run so near the MA/NH border and northward would start having problems with LL dry air. 12z EPS looked better up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Actually think Uncle Sam has the right idea here in most spots. I'd go a bit lower for NYC/NJ/Philly/Western CT. The short range models are good at detecting sleet and small warm profiles above the ground from what I can remember in college when we evaluated model performance in Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the cyclone we see IS a response to the jet mechanics associated with the S/W - what you say has no logic or Meteorological/physical understanding ( then..). those jets in question are different because of the interference - so yeah..in fact, it IS causing the GFS handling the cyclone - the cyclone isn't coming from nothing - ..it's there BECAUSE of the GFS fields in the GFS - sorry... I can see this is going to aggravate you and I'll step out now ... I'll just say, you need to bone up how cyclones develop and why. What you said, bold is precisely and exactly wrong - Okay, sorry my nonexistent meteorology degree isn't from an ivy league school, or even worse, that it is from Brown. So you are saying that the kicker wasn't there 4 days ago on the GFS, and now it is there on the GFS, and that's why the GFS is currently 100 miles south of some other guidance. I will have to mull this over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just said the 18"+ was intended to be isolated ...its posters like this that discourage some of the pros that we'd like to attract. It wasn't a final call, regardless. Ideally I would have posted a first call today, but I work and have a family, so didn't have a choice. Jesus.... That was a clown move by @Dr. Dews to post that and infer what he did 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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