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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit.

Agreed, key difference I see is Euro is much weaker with the PNA ridge, which hinders the SW from amplifying as much, causing it to cut west. Hopefully that feature trends toward the GFS. FWIW, 0z EPS looked a bit better than the operational. 

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GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  Gorgeous.  

Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains.  Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif.  That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west.  It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT.  This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.ec6364280078d03767c2d79fe5c61f2d.gif

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"?

Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure.

Very doubtful to get a foot of snow out of this. 6-8” maybe but will need cold temps the whole time otherwise it will be more wet and heavy which will have lower totals

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Jason and I will have a post on it coming up.  Right now we're playing the probabilities for various accumulations lower than suggested by the eps POPS or GFS as there were lots of different evolutions shown on the ensemble stamps.  Plus, we're 4 days out and we live around DC. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  Gorgeous.  

Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains.  Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif.  That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west.  It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast.  THIS IS WHAT WE WANT.  This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.ec6364280078d03767c2d79fe5c61f2d.gif

That HP getting back over MN is nice

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"?

Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure.

HECS lol. Well, that's my wishcast. In reality, probably 8-12 if it cranks. Just moves too quickly. Need it to slow down and a bit earlier transfer would help. 

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Just now, H2O said:

That HP getting back over MN is nice

Yup, all part of the same process.  We don't want the HP outrunning the low.  Want the HP on top of the LP like a hat.  Maybe a bit ahead of the LP.  

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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where?

No. 

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14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday.

 

Dr no just talked.

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I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

????

 

Looking good to me

icon_asnow_neus_43.png

Still shows snow for me :bike:

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

I would need a map to approve as well!

I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today!

 

First real threat we've had in a while, good to be fun. Once a thread gets made (NOT TODAY), we will keep banter to a minimum.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

I’ll do it!

4424172C-6691-4FF7-8A0F-782473947718.png

PSU fringed on the double digits

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