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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Eta

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Well, I was going to calculate.a consensus average from everyone's entries for the pressures and winds, but since so many entries have come in I'm still trying to organize everyone and will calculate shortly. ENTRIES WILL CLOSE AT THE NEXT DATA UPDATE (~1:52UTC). 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Background pressures seem high due to the digging ridge. If Eta is below 910 mb, considering its small RMW, it's probably pushing 160 kts at the surface.

I looked at that for a minute but idk that's a fairly large gyre of low pressure in the SW Caribbean 

gfs_mslpa_atl_2.png

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Been lurking in here and man is this both equal parts fun and terrifying.

If I had to throw a guess, lets go with: 898mb/165kts. Idc if this is late or not. Just doing it for posterity.

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Entries now closed. Final predictions:

 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb X --> 900/160kts

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt X--> 913/150kts

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt X--> revised: 170-175kts

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt X --> revised: 897mb/160kts

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt

BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt X --> 895mb/160kts

That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt

CatLover014: 919mb/145kt

Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt

tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts

Normandy: 883mb/160kts

WxWatcher007: 912mb/148kts X revised: 903mb/155kts

Hawkeye_wx: 916mb/140kts

NorthArlington101: 907mb/150kts

SRRTA22: 908mb/150kts

USCAPEWEATHER: 896mb/165kts X --> 885mb/175kts

Amped: 895mb/160kts

pdm44: 901mb/155kts

Prospero: 911mb/160kts

BuffaloWeather: 906mb/140kts

Stebo: 915mb/145kts

OKTWISTER: 932mb/140kts

Wild Weather Monger: 901mb/160kts

Louieloy102: 903mb/150kts

LakeEffectKing: 899mb/150kts

wxmx: 885mb/165kts

Jim Marusak: 935mb/140kts. 

hlcater: 901mb/150kts

Calderon: 902mb/155kts

OSUmetstud:  890mb/155kts

NavarreDon: 903mb/155kts

jojo762: 887mb/155kts

BlueDXer: 899mb/165kts

 

Calculation of consensus:

Mean: 905.85mb/ 152.7kts

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Funny, when I watch the sat for 200 frames, when it stops I see the swirl go backwards. I don't think that has ever happened, and believe me I have stared at many 200 frame animations in my life.

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2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0.  We are at 8.4 on eta right now.

 

Just now, jpeters3 said:

Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3

i love how hard you're going.

 

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0.  We are at 8.4 on eta right now.

Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough.

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