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forkyfork

remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas

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28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We know. :axe:

I counted my T for the day which is what I hoped for. The warm LI Sound was the problem for most of us. Also just takes a lot of dynamics to get snow down to the NYC area this time of year and those may have been north of us with the best banding as well. 

I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league.  It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol.  Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time.  That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get?  I heard 6" just SW of Boston?

 

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14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

**** it let them have it for now, we’ll get ours soon. We just missed hopefully we don’t miss again 

I'm not sure, based on what I've been reading this is going to be a latitude based winter and it's best to be north of the CT shore to get good snows.  I'd expect less than 20 inches of snow this season and anything more would be a bonus.

 

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17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

**** it let them have it for now, we’ll get ours soon. We just missed hopefully we don’t miss again 

I'm happy with my 1-2 inches of slop that I saw beginning at 7 am and ending at 11 am.  An hour after it ended there were no signs of it left....that's how quickly it melted.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure, based on what I've been reading this is going to be a latitude based winter and it's best to be north of the CT shore to get good snows.  I'd expect less than 20 inches of snow this season and anything more would be a bonus.

 

After last year I think we wouldn’t mind that. I think we’ll get closer to 30”

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1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

After last year I think we wouldn’t mind that. I think we’ll get closer to 30”

Yea, last year was like 11-12 minus the October snow, so if this is 12-13 compared to last year's 11-12 I dont think anyone will mind.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yea, last year was like 11-12 minus the October snow, so if this is 12-13 compared to last year's 11-12 I dont think anyone will mind.

 

If we get that big storm like in 12-13 i just hope its 40 miles west lol

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the sun is trying to come out here

 

Sun is out in Holbrook.   Mostly cloudy though.  

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17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league.  It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol.  Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time.  That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get?  I heard 6" just SW of Boston?

 

Exactly! That’s why they avg so much more then us. Their latitude helps tremendously to tap the colder air 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league.  It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol.  Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time.  That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get?  I heard 6" just SW of Boston?

 

I guess we’ll have to be satisfied with outdoing them when it comes to higher minimums. As always .....

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41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Exactly! That’s why they avg so much more then us. Their latitude help tremendously to help tap the colder air 

The only difference is, there's always a higher league when it comes to weather ;-) Like Portland vs Boston, or Bangor vs Boston, etc.  I wonder if there is a certain latitude where the difference is the most if you're north of it vs south of it?  I know it's different every year, but on an average climate basis?  Maybe it's 40 N?

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22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The only difference is, there's always a higher league when it comes to weather ;-) Like Portland vs Boston, or Bangor vs Boston, etc.  I wonder if there is a certain latitude where the difference is the most if you're north of it vs south of it?  I know it's different every year, but on an average climate basis?  Maybe it's 40 N?

I see it as maybe like the Little Giants where we can beat BOS if it’s a year like 15-16 where we get slammed from an El Niño snowstorm and they get edged or suppressed. I think we beat them in 2009-10 and 2003-04 too. It does happen 1x per decade or so on average. 

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Just now, BucksCO_PA said:

Their longitude may help them even more than their latitude.

Portland ME isn’t far from Boston, a lot closer than we are and they average in the low 70s for snow vs 43” for Boston. The real winners are cities in ME and have been for the last decade or so. Nina patterns like these do very well up there too since the cold air eventually resists all the cutters and makes them redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. 

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Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent.  Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. 

My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). 

There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area...  the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84

in w Ct, NYS. 

 

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...
 
 Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             
 
 ...New Jersey...
 
 ...Morris County...
 Jefferson Twp                0.8 in    1120 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Sussex County...
 4 NNE Frankford Twp          2.5 in    1226 PM 10/30   Public               
 1 ENE Sparta                 2.5 in    1145 AM 10/30   Public               
 High Point                   2.4 in    1005 AM 10/30   Public               
 Sparta                       0.6 in    0940 AM 10/30   Public               
 Lafayette Twp                0.5 in    1130 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 4 SW Wantage                 0.3 in    0930 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Warren County...
 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in    1059 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Pennsylvania...
 
 ...Carbon County...
 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir  0.6 in    1109 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Monroe County...
 Mount Pocono                 0.9 in    1025 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 Long Pond                    0.3 in    0952 AM 10/30   Public               
 &&

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   New Fairfield          2.0   130 PM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   Shelton                0.6  1100 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport               T   100 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   Hamden                 0.7   130 PM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   3 NNW Wallingford Ce   0.1   700 AM 10/30  CoCoRaHS
   Guilford                 T   257 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer

NEW JERSEY

...Passaic County...
   1 SE Newfoundland        T   800 AM 10/30  Charlotteburg COOP

NEW YORK

...Orange County...
   Monroe                 1.5  1145 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter

...Suffolk County...
   Stony Brook              T  1219 PM 10/30  NWS Employee
   Mount Sinai              T  1230 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer
   Upton                    T   200 PM 10/30  NWS Office

...Westchester County...
   Katonah                0.2   900 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter

 

Screen_Shot_2020-10-30_at_10_35.52_AM.png

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

I didn’t see any frozen precip falling in Suffolk, Nassau, or Queens.

There was snow and sleet here, didn’t accumulate so it ended up as T, but I think most of us had some form of frozen precip today. 

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11 hours ago, wdrag said:

Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent.  Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. 

My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). 

There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area...  the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84

in w Ct, NYS. 

 

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...
 
 Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             
 
 ...New Jersey...
 
 ...Morris County...
 Jefferson Twp                0.8 in    1120 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Sussex County...
 4 NNE Frankford Twp          2.5 in    1226 PM 10/30   Public               
 1 ENE Sparta                 2.5 in    1145 AM 10/30   Public               
 High Point                   2.4 in    1005 AM 10/30   Public               
 Sparta                       0.6 in    0940 AM 10/30   Public               
 Lafayette Twp                0.5 in    1130 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 4 SW Wantage                 0.3 in    0930 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Warren County...
 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in    1059 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Pennsylvania...
 
 ...Carbon County...
 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir  0.6 in    1109 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 
 ...Monroe County...
 Mount Pocono                 0.9 in    1025 AM 10/30   Trained Spotter      
 Long Pond                    0.3 in    0952 AM 10/30   Public               
 &&

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   New Fairfield          2.0   130 PM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   Shelton                0.6  1100 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport               T   100 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   Hamden                 0.7   130 PM 10/30  Trained Spotter
   3 NNW Wallingford Ce   0.1   700 AM 10/30  CoCoRaHS
   Guilford                 T   257 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer

NEW JERSEY

...Passaic County...
   1 SE Newfoundland        T   800 AM 10/30  Charlotteburg COOP

NEW YORK

...Orange County...
   Monroe                 1.5  1145 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter

...Suffolk County...
   Stony Brook              T  1219 PM 10/30  NWS Employee
   Mount Sinai              T  1230 PM 10/30  Co-Op Observer
   Upton                    T   200 PM 10/30  NWS Office

...Westchester County...
   Katonah                0.2   900 AM 10/30  Trained Spotter

 

Screen_Shot_2020-10-30_at_10_35.52_AM.png

Add a .5" at 700 feet in Mahopac.

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11 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Their longitude may help them even more than their latitude.

Couldn't agree more. For years growing up in NE Bergen County I was always envious of New England because of exactly the longitude. 

A few met/mods have mentioned it before (think it was Tip) but the fact that NE basically sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the general trajectory of the entire eastern seasboard helps tremendously with our snowfall chances from storms just like yesterday. Of course latitude plays a role but not as much as the longitude helps. We're just in the perfect position sometimes for strengthening/bombing low's that take the SW-NE trek off the coast. NJ/NYC would tend to be just a bit too far west when a storm's at 40/70 while due to the fact that NE sticks out into the Atlantic, we get the goods. That's why LI/Suffolk County has done so well recently as they could catch a little bit of what NE gets, albeit on the the southern side.

Yesterday was one for the ages though and nobody was expecting what we got being it's so early in the season and being right on the water yet as I type, it looks like January outside with 4.5" of now and 27 degrees. Reminded me so much of the October 2011 storm in NNJ in terms of surprise. A lot less tree damage here yesterday than from that one though.

Hopefully this year we can all get some good miller A's and storms that delivers the goods from Philly on northwards. DC is kind of a lost cause since 2010 (with the one exception being the 2016 storm) and will continue to be. They're just too far south and too warm these days.

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On 10/26/2020 at 9:30 AM, Ericjcrash said:

Lol.gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.thumb.png.9abe1527c61fab026c266393c1847058.pnggfsp_T2m_neus_22.thumb.png.0426225a0192bfb50358acdc02104430.png

As expected, even as many parts of the region saw the coldest October temperatures in 32 years, temperatures were much warmer than those forecast by the Parallel GFS. This recent example is illustrative of the issue one may see on several occasions during the winter where this model shows extreme cold in the medium or extended range. Without support from the other guidance, one should be wary if this model is a cold outlier. The general idea of coming cold was good (and seen by the other guidance). The magnitude of the cold is where this model had its problems.

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13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I see it as maybe like the Little Giants where we can beat BOS if it’s a year like 15-16 where we get slammed from an El Niño snowstorm and they get edged or suppressed. I think we beat them in 2009-10 and 2003-04 too. It does happen 1x per decade or so on average. 

yea I want next winter to be a super strong el nino and get rid of all this la nina junk

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51 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Couldn't agree more. For years growing up in NE Bergen County I was always envious of New England because of exactly the longitude. 

A few met/mods have mentioned it before (think it was Tip) but the fact that NE basically sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the general trajectory of the entire eastern seasboard helps tremendously with our snowfall chances from storms just like yesterday. Of course latitude plays a role but not as much as the longitude helps. We're just in the perfect position sometimes for strengthening/bombing low's that take the SW-NE trek off the coast. NJ/NYC would tend to be just a bit too far west when a storm's at 40/70 while due to the fact that NE sticks out into the Atlantic, we get the goods. That's why LI/Suffolk County has done so well recently as they could catch a little bit of what NE gets, albeit on the the southern side.

Yesterday was one for the ages though and nobody was expecting what we got being it's so early in the season and being right on the water yet as I type, it looks like January outside with 4.5" of now and 27 degrees. Reminded me so much of the October 2011 storm in NNJ in terms of surprise. A lot less tree damage here yesterday than from that one though.

Hopefully this year we can all get some good miller A's and storms that delivers the goods from Philly on northwards. DC is kind of a lost cause since 2010 (with the one exception being the 2016 storm) and will continue to be. They're just too far south and too warm these days.

That's generally the case with eastern storm tracks, but dont you think that longitude (west) and elevation is better in la ninas because most storms tend to cut or be huggers?  The WAR is stronger than it usually is.

BTW I was shocked that 4" was your heaviest recorded October snow- you didn't get more than that there in October 2011?  I remember reading parts of New England got 30"!

 

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13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Portland ME isn’t far from Boston, a lot closer than we are and they average in the low 70s for snow vs 43” for Boston. The real winners are cities in ME and have been for the last decade or so. Nina patterns like these do very well up there too since the cold air eventually resists all the cutters and makes them redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. 

Yeah like last winter was amazing in Maine.  It's probably the best place to live if you want to stay on the east coast and love snow.

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