November 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Your crew who expects winter to kick in fully before Dec 18th are once again reminded that sauce cooked for days is better than microwave . The annual angst is funny. Hopefully the whining stops around the holidays as you hate to see grown ass men reduced to whimpering boys because of frozen water.

My crew? I just said it will take time.  Trust me, I don't see winter anytime soon. Nice thunder and 4"/hr earlier rates. Deep winter.

[Lava Rock]

5 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Fiber?

ha. crap just falling from the sky. Thunder/lightening now.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hate moving so I don’t tweak something again.  A few years ago I would routinely throw out my back every 6 months to a year.   Gym/exercise has definitely helped in that.  It still happens rarely but I recover faster.  
Seems to affect men more than women for some reason

The gym and/ or working out at home  is a major plus for avoiding injuries and recovering from injuries. 

[tamarack]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The storms they are a cutting.

And CAD-ing.  LEW 37 and AUG 50 at 9 AM.  Temp has rocketed up to 35 here, with moderate RA.  The swamps inevitably get filled before winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The gym and/ or working out at home  is a major plus for avoiding injuries and recovering from injuries. 

Definitely...I lift 3x weekly and jog about 13mi weekly. Very little discomfort even at 40.

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your crew who expects winter to kick in fully before Dec 18th are once again reminded that sauce cooked for days is better than microwave . The annual angst is funny. Hopefully the whining stops around the holidays as you hate to see grown ass men reduced to whimpering boys because of frozen water.

I agree.  Cutters precede coastals.  You have to crack a few eggs to make an omelet!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

I agree.  Cutters precede coastals.  You have to crack a few eggs to make an omelet!

I agree with the fact that an active storm track bodes better than nothing at all.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with the fact that an active storm track bodes better than nothing at all.

Which was my original thought process. Glad to see precip back now lets adjust timing and amplitude 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My crew? I just said it will take time.  Trust me, I don't see winter anytime soon. Nice thunder and 4"/hr earlier rates. Deep winter.

You are chief weenie of the AEMATT crew. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You are chief weenie of the AEMATT crew. 

Need to steal one of your wigwams. 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hate moving so I don’t tweak something again.  A few years ago I would routinely throw out my back every 6 months to a year.   Gym/exercise has definitely helped in that.  It still happens rarely but I recover faster.  
Seems to affect men more than women for some reason

Keep that core strong as long as you can. Good job on the working out stuff. My Dr told me drilling into my bones was like trying to nail into red oak. Keep your core stong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Keep that core strong as long as you can. Good job on the working out stuff. My Dr told me drilling into my bones was like trying to nail into red oak. Keep your core stong.

Most prevalent cause of of chronic lower back pain is a weak core. Its easier to skate by in your 20s and early 30s, but it will usually come to a head in your later 30s.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most prevalent cause of of chronic lower back pain is a weak core. Its easier to skate by in your 20s and early 30s, but it will usually come to a head in your later 30s.

I think I damaged a vertebrae in my mid/upper back years ago and every once in awhile now I think I pinch nerves. The pain goes into my right lat. it’s either the nerves or I tore something near where the lat attaches near the spine and I keep aggravating it. El sucko. 

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

And CAD-ing.  LEW 37 and AUG 50 at 9 AM.  Temp has rocketed up to 35 here, with moderate RA.  The swamps inevitably get filled before winter. 

Stuck in the 40° RA BR here too although PSM broke free. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

I think I damaged a vertebrae in my mid/upper back years ago and every once in awhile now I think I pinch nerves. The pain goes into my right lat. it’s either the nerves or I tore something near where the lat attaches near the spine and I keep aggravating it. El sucko. 

Yea, obviously there are more acute causes of chronic discomfort. Sucks.

I don't know how I have avoided  more chronic issues after that wreck I was in 1/2010....absolute miracle, but I'm sure my rigorous fitness regimen plays a role. My left lat will never feel exactly the same, as they extracted it to graph the tube into my aorta. But I can not complain.

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Definitely...I lift 3x weekly and jog about 13mi weekly. Very little discomfort even at 40.

Keep that up, I used to do that in my 30's into my 40's and slacked off the last couple years and I'm so out of shape, I felt so much better when I stuck to my regimen but it's easy to slack off when you're older and work gets busy. I regret slacking, will take me awhile to get it back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Keep that up, I used to do that in my 30's into my 40's and slacked off the last couple years and I'm so out of shape, I felt so much better when I stuck to my regimen but it's easy to slack off when you're older and work gets busy. I regret slacking, will take me awhile to get it back.

I don't think I will because its so tied into my emotional well being, as well. I have seen some dark days and exercise is an enormous outlet for me. Wife has learned to afford me the time to exercise. lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Hmm... significant storm tho ?  I'd have to say we are above the normal% for a D7-14 ... Whether that is snow ...rain...mix - too soon to tell. 

... While not exactly 'calling for' anything,  I wouldn't be surprised at all if prior to Dec 10 there is winter complexion event(s) that manage above trivial..  maybe Dec 1 ..and again 4-7th as a non-committal guess.

Anyone lucid/cogent objective observer wrt to global events would have to admit to a velocity soaked hemisphere. Why is that going to suddenly change - heh.. fat chance.  

No..I don't see a Euro or GGEM solution as "likely" to evolve in a fast maelstrom - it's physically stressed .. usually, the path of least resistance and these guidance types seem to be creating their own pathways by removing the speed surplus - interesting.  Though that does not mean they can't... (just get that out of the way).. what if things slow down.   Assuming not... these guidance' typically do this in that time range, with too much meridian flow... and consummately, they'll have to correct flatter - sometimes more so than others ..etc.. It's like they are running away with the --> PNA mode change, but disintegrating the speed to get to their April looks ...more so evidence in that whacked Euro sell at D10 ... I mean... D10, right? But still ... if any D10 has a 10% chance...that set up is like 1% of that 10%

Contrasting, the GFS has a speed bias - of all things ... - which is deliciously, circumstantially hidden from anyone's awareness because it is is carrying on with that bias nested inside a flow that is ... already biased.  Ha... like NCEP went out of their way to conceal it's bias in that camouflaging.  How devious... anyway, trying to account for that may be less necessary for the orbital perspective - I wouldn't care use the GFS for the daily depiction though.  But in this situation ...? It's last two cycles are a way, waaaaay better fit for that persistence/velocity saturation model... during this run mode changing PNA ... 

We should see a velocity steeped +PNA ... it's a pathway of best intuitive realization ... that conserves the antecedent predicament, while getting the +PNA deed done. 

But, that doesn't support shortening the planetary wave-lengths... speed = stretching the flow...  they should be longer...  

All the while... this,

   ... is a whopper H.A. correction signal ... That's why I prefaced this with above median chance for activity. I think given time, that loads enough cold that a first system could be a transition ... and if there's enough to load the circulation anew, the next is colder.   I realize some have recently referenced that first week of December's as seemingly preordained in climate to be miserable...not sure I buy that?  I remember Dec 2 thru 12 big events many times... 1992, 1995, 1996, 2003, 2005 ... I mean the list goes on... It just I lived through these 12+" spectacles - in fact, I argue, based on that.. .we are more likely to get snow then than f'n Xmass ...but, tongue-in-cheek a little. 

So, the EPS mean is also a much better look for the persistence/mode of the hemisphere... I would probably as a gambler put many down that the Euro flattens that curvaceous cave-man painting it evolves into out there thru D7-10  ... in lieu of flatter waves that can tap confluence/cold along 50 N and bleed those air masses in ...

[Whineminster]

One more month for a good ice storm, maybe a month and a half.  After that it gets harder. 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

By far the worst model out there, embarrassing. Utter garbage

True.  The Euro op is spot on d8 usually 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

True.  The Euro op is spot on d8 usually 

I had to laugh at that. The euro op has been atrocious that far out too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Incoming 

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

   ... is a whopper H.A. correction signal ... That's why I prefaced this with above median chance for activity. I think given time, that loads enough cold that a first system could be a transition ... and if there's enough to load the circulation anew, the next is colder.   I realize some have recently referenced that first week of December's as seemingly preordained in climate to be miserable...not sure I buy that?  I remember Dec 2 thru 12 big events many times... 1992, 1995, 1996, 2003, 2005 ... I mean the list goes on... It just I lived through these 12+" spectacles - in fact, I argue, based on that.. .we are more likely to get snow then than f'n Xmass ...but, tongue-in-cheek a little. 

So, the EPS mean is also a much better look for the persistence/mode of the hemisphere... I would probably as a gambler put many down that the Euro flattens that curvaceous cave-man painting it evolves into out there thru D7-10  ... in lieu of flatter waves that can tap confluence/cold along 50 N and bleed those air masses in ...

I would say that list is heavily biased after about Dec 6-7. I wouldn't totally argue against something around then or later if we can get that PNA to produce some semi-continental air at our disposal.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

You know... as an afterthought/observation .. the verification curve of the PNA has if anything parted company with the prognostic ranges and is currently more positive already ...

You know ...this could 'break' toward more -

What else is interesting is the MJO seems destined to decay toward oblivion...after having passe demonstratively enough through Phase 8-1-2 candy district(s)... yet, the GEFs choose some week to 10 days past that termination of existence to blossom it's PNA curve to that appeal - ... hm... 

Ah hell..could be coincidence ...the MJO's time spent there anyway... I am suspicious that the MJO wave is less capable - similar to the ENSO predicament - of transmitting it's wave signaling into the mid latitudes given the ... uh - yeah

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say that list is heavily biased after about Dec 6-7. I wouldn't totally argue against something around then or later if we can get that PNA to produce some semi-continental air at our disposal.

 

I noticed the same thing. Difference of a day or two is noise. The point is that the second week of December is much more favorable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know... as an afterthought/observation .. the verification curve of the PNA has if anything parted company with the prognostic ranges and is currently more positive already ...

You know ...this could 'break' toward more -

What else is interesting is the MJO seems destined to decay toward oblivion...after having passe demonstratively enough through Phase 8-1-2 candy district(s)... yet, the GEFs choose some week to 10 days past that termination of existence to blossom it's PNA curve to that appeal - ... hm... 

Ah hell..could be coincidence ...the MJO's time spent there anyway... I am suspicious that the MJO wave is less capable - similar to the ENSO predicament - of transmitting it's wave signaling into the mid latitudes given the ... uh - yeah

Hadley Boooommmmmb....BOOM!!

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say that list is heavily biased after about Dec 6-7. I wouldn't totally argue against something around then or later if we can get that PNA to produce some semi-continental air at our disposal.

 

mm .. .the thing is, I personally only see one real factor that objectively limits Dec 2-8 realization/events, over Dec 9 -17 ..etc...so on, outside of noise in data sets that is:  The Earth's seasonal/hemispheric lag ... means that it is colder later on... Otherwise?  to the natural order of the planetary system that seems like noise ...Problem is perception - 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

mm .. .the thing is, I personally only see one real factor that objectively limits Dec 2-8 realization/events, over Dec 9 -17 ..etc...so on, outside of noise in data sets that is:  The Earth's seasonal/hemispheric lag ... means that it is colder later on... Otherwise?  to the natural order of the planetary system that seems like noise ...

Problem is perception -  

Maybe but the guidance distinctly has a problematic flow into Canada still present in the first few days of December....which it then backs off as we get into the post-12.5 range....now maybe that's wrong and the amplitude out west verifies sharper prior to 12/5....then ok, fine, we could increase the odds of a snow event if that occurred.

Obviously the extra 7-10 days of climo also helps if we're comparing 12/2 to 12/11 or something...no denying that.

[tamarack]

34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

One more month for a good ice storm, maybe a month and a half.  After that it gets harder. 

The 2 worst ice storms, by far (1953 and 1998) came on Jan. 8-9, a solid month and a half from today's date.  For SNE, December seems the prime time, at least for the past 90 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe but the guidance distinctly has a problematic flow into Canada still present in the first few days of December....which it then backs off as we get into the post-12.5 range....now maybe that's wrong and the amplitude out west verifies sharper prior to 12/5....then ok, fine, we could increase the odds of a snow event if that occurred.

Obviously the extra 7-10 days of climo also helps if we're comparing 12/2 to 12/11 or something...no denying that.

I am not sure what exactly you are referring to to make that 'distinction' ...and you may be right

...oh, cool - thunder just now... wow

but, if the GEFs tele's are right in that which I posted above... I suggest any off-set distinction is correctable ...that would be my guess..  That was implicit in my post - bigger one .. - up there...that I'm not too worried about any daily-scaled bad pattern.  I mean I seriously hope you are not using the operational Euro for anything beyond D5.5 in that mess - ew...

I like times like these ( lol ) ..it brings meaning to my otherwise pointless existence as a tortured love lorn victim of the gods ... I can hide in high- claims based on my special ( as in helmet and drool cup) aspergery vision, and than challenge to see if they come to realization.  Mind you ...said competition is only against myself... Even when I'm more right about these sort of ideas ... I can honestly see vestiges of the other notion were still sort of there?