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WinterWxLuvr

November Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Some continuing signs this morning that we might be able to achieve a more blocked regime later in the month,  and especially in early December.  Also, some indications regarding higher pressures building into and near Greenland  early to mid December. We all know the odds and the accuracy within the NAO domain,  but well worth keeping tabs as we get closer to the holidays. 

 

 

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Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge.  Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it.  12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge.  Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it.  12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.

12z GEFS looks pretty darn good at the end of the run today. GEPS isn't bad either. Probably average to slightly below average temps. Ofc it's just on paper at this point. We shall see.

eta- Latest GEFS extended is a bit more ambiguous with the pattern around mid Dec compared to previous runs. Not bad but never gets the +heights into the NAO region. Given how the last couple GEFS runs have looked, it will be interesting to see the next extended run. For those who don't know, the extended(beyond hr 384) is a feature of the 0z runs, but the extended hours have a 24 hour delay, at least on TT. So the run I am referencing here is the 0z Friday edition.

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29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

+heights in the NAO region would be great but my eyes are on the PAC and to a slightly lesser extent the AO. We don’t have a shot without a serviceable Pacific pattern IMO. 

 

FB95A1FC-2E9E-4A78-ADC9-CEB07CFF880B.png

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53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

+heights in the NAO region would be great but my eyes are on the PAC and to a slightly lesser extent the AO. We don’t have a shot without a serviceable Pacific pattern IMO. 

Agreed but we must always chase the unicorn,  right? :P

EPO domain is going to be important to our chances for legit cold air outbreaks, imo

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

giphy.gif?cid=82a1493b5dq617omwd7i2x1185

This look has been moving up in time. I made a post a couple days ago when the extended GEFS looked like this around mid Dec. I guess the problem is it might be transient and happen too early lol. Still not a lot of cold air initially available either way. To take advantage, this needs to verify, and have some persistence, in order to reload cold in our nearby source region..

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Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! :drunk:

Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December!:unsure:

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When Anthony is interested you can't help but to be more hopeful. At least a December torch seems unlikely at this point, well at least until the 22 nd.  ;)

 

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As nice as these advertised h5 looks are for early Dec, there would likely only be a seasonal airmass to work with for any potential storm. Maybe we can get one of those anomalous dynamical systems that can generate its own cold air lol.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As nice as these advertised h5 looks are for early Dec, there would likely only be a seasonal airmass to work with for any potential storm. Maybe we can get one of those anomalous dynamical systems that can generate its own cold air lol.

Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. 

If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. 

If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.

Yeah I have been watching the EPO region carefully. Latest runs are trying to get some ridging up that way, but that trough is very persistent in the WPO/EPO overlap region. There are signs it may weaken/retro a bit going forward. Something to keep an eye on.

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27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.

That trailing piece of energy digging down towards TX would be pretty interesting as depicted, with heights building up north.

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13 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.

00z GGEM still has it.... highs 25-35 across the region Dec 1-2 after being in the 55-60 range on Nov 30

Looks like 00z EURO does too based off 850mb maps

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Am I suffering from "missed snowitis"... or does Day 10 on the EURO tonight look... interesting for us if it went out just a lil farther?

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