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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:shiver:

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms.

 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well.

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8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms.

 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well.

This is the one year I think we needed a brutal winter keeps people home. 

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The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

 

 

 

 

Images are always welcome!

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Images are always welcome!

Here you go, 5-day average 500 mb height anomalies day 5-10, day 7.5-12.5, and day 10-15. Next plot is hour 270 500 mb heights and wind barbs. Then the 5-day average 850 mb anomalies from the same time steps as the 5-day avg 500 mb anomalies. Needless to say, active look with plenty of cold air available and the NAO assist. 4ee8a3170f0794103ba10f01cc28951f.jpg&key=32faa6f46bf48b6afae2da8f6bb7f23031ee850783faffae8704ade125b424ff5dbf5c1f5982ed61d19fdb27e2d4ab47.jpg&key=50ba3ccc06f0fa52069bfe612976079afe181c0a5cd77286467dc473b59d982abe39974d26d15b7c85c94c61246c0021.jpg&key=74369653229a029eb792b2512b1046e1af24df40d2a9f7c9e174b221413676071e8e9aaaa2643b9a2e21fb4679ae2709.jpg&key=3d0d7176e2bbb21546e10a26db232b2d510e218da6b9952baf164d5c7b8e3aa827e9dfb2238d3f11eb33d11b69b59bdc.jpg&key=efb56d32e048e6e195fe498f5a9b3d36f7d75775f7fc1c6e9f5d369333cc9eabaa3e81098bd87864be25df67a82538c1.jpg&key=ccd1ead853e866d5e4744e04cbd5e3633fc8bd4153e1414010ec935b31a75a47e0220f94b9efe896818abab1a4472cf8.jpg&key=b9ffa2a40b051a435a964549f16cf7364ef0ef09d26afc5828817e521e875c60

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Then the 00z changes again. Why you people get hyped on 168-240 evolution always is bizarre.

Why you're constantly miserable on this thread and others always is bizarre.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Why you're constantly miserable on this thread and others always is bizarre.

 

 

 

You started it. Pretty clear we are moving into the coldest part, in terms of upstream support, of this winter, but its a "La Nina West". Weak northern jet and zonal flow. East/Eurasia got the good stuff this winter unlike past La Nina west's. My guess we will be pushing into the end of the month and those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick.

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2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick.

Sun angle is also slowly improving day-by-day. :wub:

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There's being a pessimist and then there's being a jackass. Angrysummons falls firmly into the second camp, and that's the problem.

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37 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

You started it. Pretty clear we are moving into the coldest part, in terms of upstream support, of this winter, but its a "La Nina West". Weak northern jet and zonal flow. East/Eurasia got the good stuff this winter unlike past La Nina west's. My guess we will be pushing into the end of the month and those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick.

This is gibberish. With ridging into AK yielding a Siberian connection (dislodging cold air) and strong -NAO blocking near/over Greenland, an all out torch is highly unlikely ala 2012.

Low frequency (ENSO) signal is not the be all/end all. Hell, south/central Texas got a substantial snow event yesterday, that doesn't typically happen in a La Nina year given the suppressed sub-tropical jet.

Edit: I should've expanded my post yesterday to mention late January as well, since that looks to be when we will see more of a transition.

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You started it.

one day...one day, maybe you’ll finally be right with something.


.
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46 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This is gibberish. With ridging into AK yielding a Siberian connection (dislodging cold air) and strong -NAO blocking near/over Greenland, an all out torch is highly unlikely ala 2012.

Low frequency (ENSO) signal is not the be all/end all. Hell, south/central Texas got a substantial snow event yesterday, that doesn't typically happen in a La Nina year given the suppressed sub-tropical jet.

Edit: I should've expanded my post yesterday to mention late January as well, since that looks to be when we will see more of a transition.

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

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Look bozo, asking us not to fanboy over fantasy modeling is like asking us not to be weather hobbyists. Sure, a lot of times the stuff is wrong, but this wouldn't be much of a hobby if we only follow stuff within NAM range. It's one thing if someone pulls up and starts unloading 300 hour+ GFS screenshots, but RC is literally a professional meteorologist so you have absolutely no leg to stand on telling him not to discuss 10-day forecasts in the most accurate, science based manner seen on this forum. 

You are the ball and chain around this forum's ankles. Go be a drag somewhere else.

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12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

Nobodys humping anything. People are discussing long range winter. Simply checking out the models in the long range does no harm. I think everyone knows to take them with a grain of salt. Check out the thread title. There's nothing else going on currently in the region so there's not much else to focus on. Its prob best if you stay out of the thread, and not scare away the people with actual knowledge

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low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

I shouldn't engage but I'll say this, this subforum shows a lot of restraint when it comes to medium range threats compared to other subforums and other forums in general. This is not just because of threats evaporating in the short range the past 2 winters and this winter sucking so far, it's something I've noticed over the years.  

 

 

All we're trying to do here is nail when the pattern will finally become more favorable for regular snow threats. It's not humping modeling, it's diagnosing the pattern and potential it has should the ensembles be on the right track. Most people who come in here to read want to learn something and also when we finally could get a good snow producer, not hear you gripe at others constantly and acting like you know it all.

 

I've certainly been overly optimistic in the past, I love snow myself, and this winter, this long boring stretch sucks. But I'm trying to be realistic while also talking about how this could be a legit decent pattern we're heading into, no guarantees though like always when it comes to forecasting at longer ranges. Others are trying to do the same, and I kindly suggest you read more and post/bitch less.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Then the 00z changes again. Why you people get hyped on 168-240 evolution always is bizarre.

You have really become quite insufferable.  Nobody is locking anything in, and yes, 00z could look different, but we are waiting for things to get better and now it is sort of coming into range.

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So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be.

tth.

what is the fascination with snow at all then, given it always melts in varying time anyhow. some areas in the southern plains are on track for one of their snowiest winters...so it means a lot in the end actually.


.
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53 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

Posting/discussing ensemble forecasts in that range is problematic how? That's what they're designed for.

Also, you were the one that made a blanket statement about west-based La Ninas, not me. The point is that we haven't exactly been in a "typical" pattern of La Nina (or anything close to what you are claiming) recently. Ongoing -NAO argues against a torch, as does the potential for ridging over the EPAC/AK later in the month.

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Since I’m horrid at figuring out models and stuff , can someone show me what models are saying for northern Illinois / southern Wisconsin this Thursday/ Friday .. I’m being told 3-5? Ehhhh? 

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Noticing too on the teleconnections today that some are trending the East Pacific Oscillation to negative toward the latter portion of January (around the 20th). When combined with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation being negative, things could get interesting as we trend deeper into January. Also to note, some of the forecast models do develop the ridge in Alaska as well during the same time period. 

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5 minutes ago, steve23guy said:

Since I’m horrid at figuring out models and stuff , can someone show me what models are saying for northern Illinois / southern Wisconsin this Thursday/ Friday .. I’m being told 3-5? Ehhhh? 

There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. 

Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong.

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