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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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I wouldn't throw in the towel yet. This storm is still a week out and I suspect a lot of variability until then. The current storm is definitely having an impact on model consensus. The key thing to watch is the late weekend storm and how fast it can move out and deepen. Right now models are keeping it relatively weak which enhances the ridge developing off the east coast out ahead of the Low. However, there's a massive ridge near Greenland (-NAO) and ideal ridging across the PNW which should help to counter the developing ridge and suppress the storm. The strong HP sitting in Wisconsin had zero impact on the storm and that's why I have a hard time buying the Euro. The GGEM is more realistic imo. 

I think this could be a good storm for Chicago. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I wouldn't throw in the towel yet. This storm is still a week out and I suspect a lot of variability until then. The current storm is definitely having an impact on model consensus. The key thing to watch is the late weekend storm and how fast it can move out and deepen. Right now models are keeping it relatively weak which enhances the ridge developing off the east coast out ahead of the Low. However, there's a massive ridge near Greenland (-NAO) and ideal ridging across the PNW which should help to counter the developing ridge and suppress the storm. The strong HP sitting in Wisconsin had zero impact on the storm and that's why I have a hard time buying the Euro. The GGEM is more realistic imo. 

I think this could be a good storm for Chicago. 

Its not happening. This pattern just does not want to produce in the OV the past couple of years 

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Euro is bad this year but its track is similar  to the GFS which gets a bit wonky late .Cut it over Des Moines reduce the absurd qpf amts by 50% per usual and good start for MSP this winter. Pattern should resume El Nino look with hopes further south in OV and eastern Ohio into the NE. That gets you to mid late January. 

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Its not happening. This pattern just does not want to produce in the OV the past couple of years 

The 500mb pattern advertised on the models next week is the best H5 look we've had in years. Massive ridging near Greenland and a 50/50 Low off Newfoundland. The Pacific is a convoluted mess right now but the ridging near BC is literally perfect for a nice storm for the Lower Lakes/OV. It's just about timing. I feel the storm will correct south over the coming days. There's just a lot of moving parts for model consensus. This storm won't be sampled until Tuesday, almost a week out. 

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