wdrag Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 4 hours ago, TriPol said: 1-3" of what? Rain? Snow? Made me smile... too early I think for snow. Not impossible for high terrain ice in the Catskills but that would be a really really really long shot, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Lucky This year being moderate to maybe strong Nina, probably many more obs like this to come for them this winter. Not really luck, it’s a pattern that sticks the trough in the west which occurs all the time in Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 This morning, the temperature fell to 10° at International Falls, which broke the previous daily record low figure of 12° from 1952. Toward the end of the week, another near-record to record cold air mass will likely be overspreading the Northern Plains. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the region through much of the remainder of this month. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend. Toward the end of the month, cooler air could begin to spill into the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -1.48. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.739. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.391 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.407. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 is Minnneapolis doomed to have a lousy winter now that it snowed in October or is it just an east coast thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: is Minnneapolis doomed to have a lousy winter now that it snowed in October or is it just an east coast thing... In 7 of the prior 10 cases when 2” or more snow fell on any day in October, Minneapolis wound up with normal or above normal snowfall. Only two cases were decidedly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In 7 of the prior 10 cases when 2” or more snow fell on any day in October, Minneapolis wound up with normal or above normal snowfall. Only two cases were decidedly below normal. I was being sarcastic but 8 of 10 is a good percentage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In 7 of the prior 10 cases when 2” or more snow fell on any day in October, Minneapolis wound up with normal or above normal snowfall. Only two cases were decidedly below normal. Of those 10 other cases, how did the East Coast do with snow those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: Of those 10 other cases, how did the East Coast do with snow those years? For the most part, average or above. However, in the cases with the larger amounts, the East wound up with below normal snowfall. The sample size is too small to draw conclusions about the East, especially when one considers ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 10/20 New Brnswck: 74 EWR: 72 LGA: 72 TEB: 72 NYC: 71 ACY: 71 PHL: 71 BLM: 71 JFK: 70 TTN: 70 ISP: 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 5 hours ago, VortAmplifier said: These shapes are extraordinary sometimes. Oct 31 Possibility. I'm tracking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 snow events for Minnesota in one week coming up. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, VortAmplifier said: 00z GFS kind of flat 1041H suppression then jet smashes the wave to produce almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or +3.0 Now the EURO is 25 degrees warmer than the GFS by the end of the month. BN delayed to the 30th. now? By November ENS/OP are dancing to a different (fill in). Tropics: 29.0N 58.4W. 61*(97%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.5 mile. 63* by 9am but still foggy. 64* by 10am with Fog lifting. 65* by Noon, some fog still around-vertical mixing not done yet. 67*(92%RH) by 2pm and still some fog lingers. 68* at 3pm but paradoxically fog back in. 64* by 7pm and foggy since 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Morning thoughts... Clouds, fog and mist will give way to at least partial sunshine. It will be another mild day with readings mainly near or just above 70° in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Temperatures around the area are starting out with minimums within a few degrees of the warmest daily minimums. These are the warmest low temperatures on this date since 2016. Newark Liberty DRZL/FOG 61 61 9 JFK.....low of 60 so far Newark Area, NJ Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1931 through 2019 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 58 in 2016 New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1948 through 2019 10/21 60 in 2016 60 in 1984 58 in 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Epsilon impact here: First 14 second swells from Epsilon should be noticed tomorrow...building very slowly into Friday with a slightly shorter period then. Max WH modeled by the EC is 10 feet along our NYC forum Atlantic shore... that being the rarity...most of these long period swells ~ 6 - 7 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Lots of chlly air building into the Lakes and MW, once the trough clears the coast Id say we see a 3 - 5 day much below normal to open November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Lots of chlly air building into the Lakes and MW, once the trough clears the coast Id say we see a 3 - 5 day much below normal to open November. It would have support from the mjo as it will be entering p7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 20 hours ago, forkyfork said: should be widespread tonight with the higher dewpoints And you were right again, it was a very soggy overnight. It's lifting a bit now but still only about 1/4 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 70 here, if these clouds would stay away it’d be even warmer. Low was 61. 72/53 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 sun has busted out here and we're up to 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Temperatures are off to the races away from the marine layer. Wrightstown MOSUNNY 77 66 69 S7 Scranton SUNNY 75 59 57 S9 Hartford PTSUNNY 73 60 63 SW9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Socked in all day with low clouds and fog out here in Warren County. Not even a hint of sunshine all day. Current temp of 65 on this boring depressing weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Eps showing support now for a decent cold shot around halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, Pequest said: Socked in all day with low clouds and fog out here in Warren County. Not even a hint of sunshine all day. Current temp of 65 on this boring depressing weather day. Sun finally came out about an hour ago. 72 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps showing support now for a decent cold shot around halloween reminds me a bit of last year-got cold on 11/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 The forecast details beyond 7 days may be lower skill than usual. It looks like the EPS is struggling with the wavelengths following the big Epsilon ET. So we’ll probably have to wait and see how the late October into early November forecast evolves. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 8:06 PM, donsutherland1 said: Warmer conditions returned today. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -6.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.163. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.400 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.592. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent remained just below 5 million square kilometers on October 18 (JAXA), which further extended 2020's record for the latest such occurrence of Arctic sea ice extent below 5 million square kilometers. I suspect 1998-99 and 2007-08 will be better analogs than 1988-89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Temperatures are off to the races away from the marine layer. Wrightstown MOSUNNY 77 66 69 S7 Scranton SUNNY 75 59 57 S9 Hartford PTSUNNY 73 60 63 SW9 I think it hit 80 at Toms River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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