jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Like you said we may be switching to a pattern of record blocks in different parts of the world. If so, maybe in a few years, we will get this kind of pattern again, even if it has diminishing returns with a warming background state. I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10/9 EWR: 73 New Brnswck: 72 BLM: 72 ACY: 72 PHL: 72 LGA: 71 TEB: 71 TTN: 71 NYC: 69 JFK: 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most. this is october you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, nycwinter said: this is october you know... I think he meant for winter patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The S/W and rain moving in resembles a SWFE winter event. We even have the big high NE of us as an overrunning setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think he meant for winter patterns. and I was thinking like maybe a few winters from now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The S/W and rain moving in resembles a SWFE winter event. We even have the big high NE of us as an overrunning setup. weird on different precip maps, I've seen western NJ and eastern PA jackpotting and on some I see Long Island jackpotting lol. also how high will the winds be? This wont even be a TS when it gets here and yet I see forecasts of high winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: weird on different precip maps, I've seen western NJ and eastern PA jackpotting and on some I see Long Island jackpotting lol. also how high will the winds be? This wont even be a TS when it gets here and yet I see forecasts of high winds? The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal. sounds like the kind of storm we might see a lot of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: sounds like the kind of storm we might see a lot of this winter Another Nina-yeah, likely (we've essentially been in a Nina background state for over a decade other than the super Nino 15-16 which it took the super Nino to snap the Nina for that one season). Hopefully we can get some other factors like the MJO which wrecked our last 2 winters and NAO to help out and not have every storm be a cutter. 10-11 is an example of how the NAO can salvage a Nina winter but that was an extreme example. I'd be thrilled if we make it to average snow or a little better, like how 12-13 was generally. Lot of downside though if the MJO stays in phase 4-6 again and the NAO/AO Is mostly positive. The hyper-roaring Pacific jet flooding the US with mild garbage is never good either. N New England/Midwest/West favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or just Normal. 60*(78%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, haze. 66* by 1pm, filtered sun, cool breeze around here. From Delta's remains: EURO. 2.0", GFS 1.3", GEM 1.0", SREF Plumes 2.0". EURO likes the 17th. for a separate event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 There's your smoke aloft sunrise... 6 hr modeled forecast for 8AM...axis of some smoke aloft is I95. It will thin midday then thicken briefly again late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Looks like we will continue to see the coolest temperatures relative to the averages remaining to our west. Ridging is holding in place near the West Coast and just to the east of New England. Matches the areas of the warmest SST departures. Oct 1-7 EPS forecast more of the same Current SST departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and very warm for the season. Temperatures will rise into the middle and even upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 76° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will impact the region from late tomorrow through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Would not mind seeing at 3 inches or more here in HPN, we are long over due for some decent saturating rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 65 and mostly cloudy here. Satellite last night hinted that today was not likely going to be mostly sunny as some late forecasts showed. Despite that it will be very warm today and should we get some longer peaks of sun it could push upper 70s in places. Clouds continue tomorrow as delta moves closer. Bet on the rains always a good bet after prolonged dry period. Supect >2 inches area wide Sunday PM into Tue AM. Drier again mid week. Colder next weekend with ECM again showing widespread frost/freezed for 48 hours Sat and Sun. Beyond there a back and forth but bias overall warm in the east with troughh further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Cloudier and cooler than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 A stunning October morning up this way, up to 68 and brilliant sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cloudier and cooler than expected Been the theme on some of the close in forecasts past few weekends. Satellite loop told a different story last night and early this AM. Clouds for most the day i80 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Mild morning but temps havent moved much since. Still struggling to 70. NWS forecast of 79 seems like a long shot. A nice day still but relative to forecasts a little disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Cloudier and cooler than expected delta's remnants sped up at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Is that smoke or mostly clouds over us? May be brightening up soon. T struggling to get to 70 here---now 68 at 2:40pm. Made it to 70 around 4pm, some weak rays of sun appeared too. Topped out at 71 around 5pm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 74 and sunny here with maybe severe storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Close to 80° now in areas to our north with sun. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KBDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 it will be cooler in the park then what was predicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 incredible day here with sun most of the day-the cirrus deck now blocking out most of the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rose to 70° at Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, the chrysanthemum show was underway. Five photos: Finally, on this date in 1979, wet snow fell in many parts of the region, including New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta will likely impact the tomorrow night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +14.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.931. On October 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.713 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.513. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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