lee59 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 This mornings low here was 48, I'm already down to 49 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed. Might be the coolest for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed. Might be the coolest for a long while. That wouldn't be the worse thing to happen. A cold fall can make for a long winter. Also warmer than normal temps this time of year and into October can be pleasant rather than hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Is the gfs too warm later this week/ next weekend? either way once past monday , much warmer starting Wed. Might be the coolest for a long while. Models have been all over the place but warmer than normal should win out. Also already 47F at 11PM, gonna take the under with 46F forecast low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs. Make it 64degs., or -2.5. 53*(48%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 52* at 6:30am. 64* by 3pm. The Tropics: 26.7N 92.7W-I might do some damage yet. 28.0N 62.0W-hotel rates in Bermuda are too high, I'll skip by to the east, 15N 42W-die already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 The Euro and GFS have us getting back to the 80s by later in the week. But it looks like we will come up short on reaching 90°. So this could be the first fall since 2011 without any 90° degree days at Newark. The last fall at LGA without any 90s was 2012. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2020 0 72 2019 4 0 2018 4 0 2017 3 0 2016 5 0 2015 5 0 2014 3 0 2013 1 0 2012 2 0 2011 0 0 2010 6 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2020 0 72 2019 3 0 2018 4 0 2017 1 0 2016 3 0 2015 3 0 2014 2 0 2013 1 0 2012 0 0 2011 0 0 2010 4 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Will probably run some trajectories on BETA moist remnants by Tuesday the 22nd, to support possible moisture contribution to the large scale trough developing into the eastern USA around Monday the 28th. From what I can tell, the initial BETA contribution will be swept eastward, well to our south this coming Friday-Saturday,. Thereafter, it appears to me some of that remnant moisture will be drawn northward along the east coast. NAEFS now onto a potentially meaningful rain event (nne-ssw bands) for early next week (28-29). We'll see if se NYS and extreme nw NJ benefit from this. No rain here since the 10th. 808A/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Morning thoughts... The coldest air so far this season remains in place. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Toward the middle of this week, a warmer pattern will develop. In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out: Albany: 35°; Actual: 34° Allentown: 39°; Actual: 36° Boston: 46°; Actual: 44° Bridgeport: 47°; Actual: 49° Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43° Hartford: 38°; Actual: 36° Islip: 48°; Actual: 48° New York City: 48°; Actual: 50° Newark: 47°; Actual: 48° Philadelphia: 47°; Actual: 47° Poughkeepsie: 37°; Actual: 36° Providence: 44°; Actual: 46° White Plains: 42°; Actual: 45° Average Error: 1.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 I got down to 46 about 1A.M. and then the temperature leveled off and actually rose a few degrees by daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 56 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Lows were at midnight as NE winds bumped temps up overnight. 42.8 in Muttontown & 48.4 in Syosset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 56 here in Brooklyn Those water temps keeping south bk warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Will probably run some trajectories on BETA moist remnants by Tuesday the 22nd, to support possible moisture contribution to the large scale trough developing into the eastern USA around Monday the 28th. From what I can tell, the initial BETA contribution will be swept eastward, well to our south this coming Friday-Saturday,. Thereafter, it appears to me some of that remnant moisture will be drawn northward along the east coast. NAEFS now onto a potentially meaningful rain event (nne-ssw bands) for early next week (28-29). We'll see if se NYS and extreme nw NJ benefit from this. No rain here since the 10th. 808A/20 Yeah, it does look like that big Western Ridge builds again to close out the month. So a deep trough in the Great Lakes would probably mean a wetter pattern for us. Any remnant tropical moisture from BETA would enhance our rainfall prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... The coldest air so far this season remains in place. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Toward the middle of this week, a warmer pattern will develop. In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out: Albany: 35°; Actual: 34° Allentown: 39°; Actual: 36° Boston: 46°; Actual: 44° Bridgeport: 47°; Actual: 49° Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43° Hartford: 38°; Actual: 36° Islip: 48°; Actual: 48° New York City: 48°; Actual: 50° Newark: 47°; Actual: 48° Philadelphia: 47°; Actual: 47° Poughkeepsie: 37°; Actual: 36° Providence: 44°; Actual: 46° White Plains: 42°; Actual: 45° Average Error: 1.5° UHI effect rarely fails us. As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it does look like that big Western Ridge builds again to close out the month. So a deep trough in the Great Lakes would probably mean a wetter pattern for us. Any remnant tropical moisture from BETA will enhance our rainfall prospects. Lets hope we see this in December and not the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Those water temps keeping south bk warmer I hate my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Mostly sunny 55, low was 49, same as yday. Not so bad in direct sun but I could do without the 28 dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Lets hope we see this in December and not the opposite We’ll see if we can get some early hints from the MJO in October. The 18-19 and 19-20 below normal snowfall La Niña background state winters featured the October MJO convection focused in the Indian Ocean. Our snowier 16-17 and 17-18 La Niña winters had the October MJO in the Maritime Continent phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 58/33 from a low of 40.4 (no frost). 36 more hours of this very cool airmass before moderation on Tue. Much warmer Wed - Fri (low 80s in the warmer spots). Flow may go predominantly more southerly later next weekend into next week (9/27). Deep trough into the GL, MW, MV and swinging through the southeast and east coast towards the beginning of next month but moderated airmass wont be nearly as cool as this for next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Did not fall into the 40’s last night, surprisingly. ISP hit 48, I hit 50. Yesterday both hit 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll see if we can get some early hints from the MJO in October. The 18-19 and 19-20 below normal snowfall La Niña background state winters featured the October MJO convection focused in the Indian Ocean. Our snowier 16-17 and 17-18 La Niña winters had the October MJO in the Maritime Continent phases. Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO The two biggest factors for nyc winters are the PV and tropical forcing. We really won’t know what they will look like until December IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Look to go 16 days between measurable precip (as it looks now) Sep 10 - Sep 25/6. We'll see if the rains can get up here next weekend or is it more towards the 28th/29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. June 1st was only down to 46 here. Dont recall that but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The two biggest factors for nyc winters are the PV and tropical forcing. We really won’t know what they will look like until December IMO. Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO I wouldn’t expect nao help until it’s 3 days out lol. We haven’t had a -nao in DJF in years. Anybody that says they know one is coming can also sell you a bridge in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Currently the convection isn’t where you want it if you want a snowy Niña We would need to see all that IO forcing shift east toward the Maritime Continent in October. The big amped up MJO 5 in October 2017 came before the snowy La Niña 17-18 winter. The strong IO MJO 1 in October 2011 preceded the 11-12 La Niña winter. There is some research that early IO forcing can excite the PV like we saw last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Summer freezes? from Rutgers weather station Summer freezes are uncommon but not unprecedented at some NJ locations. Today marks the second consecutive day with low temperatures at or below freezing at several Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations. Yesterday, September 19, Walpack (Sussex County) fell to 29°, with Sandyston (Sussex) and Pequest (Warren) both down to 31°. This morning, Walpack bottomed out at 31°, with Pequest and Basking Ridge (Somerset) each at 32°. Walpack was last down to freezing on June 1, leaving this cold-air drainage prone valley site in northwest Jersey with a short 109 day growing season (days between last spring and first fall freeze). Meanwhile, several coastal stations had their last freeze on March 1, thus have had a 203 day growing season....and counting. Our growing season now averages around 220 days. Hence the Crepe Myrtle you now see quite often on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.