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wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been noticing even the NAM is like 30 knots less with the LLJ than the euro. 

If the euro verified, even I would admit that there is some decent wind potential away from the south coast, but the solutions with like 65-70kt at 850 are kind of meh for interior outside of some rogue gusts in cells. 

Some of those models intensify this a bit too over land, giving those solutions. I guess if that occurs, it’s possible along with the mixing. I’m just not sure of the high end stuff. 

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If some of those winds Even come close to verifying...SNE could be one of the hardest hit areas from this system?  Pretty ironic if it played out something like that...that never happens lol.  

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of those models intensify this a bit too over land, giving those solutions. I guess if that occurs, it’s possible along with the mixing. I’m just not sure of the high end stuff. 

Will is slowly coming around. He’s stubborn but it’s coming 

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Given the evolution of the storm and that it’s supposed to retain most of its intensity at this latitude isn’t this  more a hybrid deal than a tropical system?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will is slowly coming around. He’s stubborn but it’s coming 

LOL, still some questions as we see from models. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

High end TS or low end hurricane, Not going to be much difference really.

Oh I realize that.  But it looks much healthier on radar and sat, so the question was asked if it might be upgraded at 5 pm. 

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2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Feels like real story will be wind and storms from DC to jersey shore and NYC. Decent for us, but best stuff is mid atl. 

You might be to Far East for the real stuff?  But who knows? This could shift East too? 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh I realize that.  But it looks much healthier on radar and sat, so the question was asked if it might be upgraded at 5 pm. 

Meh I don't feel like it really matters. The interesting show starts north of VA for us. See what happens while it transitions. 

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4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

I'm getting the feeling this isn't gonna be that interesting for me

 

If youre still in E MA. Maybe we'll get a decent rain band with a few gusts of wind, a few iso tors or perhaps microburst.. but generally NBD.

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25 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What's sort of interesting about this storm in general is that decent mixing in the boundary layer is progged. Very rare to see on a southerly flow event. 

High SSTs, moist environment, amazing how similar the water temps and summer were to 2011. It was those outer bands that nailed us. Totally different setup but similar mixing. April’s event and Oct 17 both had more mixing than expected. Hopefully it stays less mixed.

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Ryan just said maybe 2 hrs of the peak wind and then it’s over for the big wind. In and out as is usually the case when these are racing through the region.  
 

50-60 for interior and 60-70 for the southern areas.  

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan just said maybe 2 hrs of the peak wind and then it’s over for the big wind. In and out as is usually the case when these are racing through the region.  
 

50-60 for interior and 60-70 for the southern areas.  

Yeah it’s really only an hour or two of the good winds.

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Still haven't purchased genny for the transfer switch we had installed couple months ago. Unless we get 40+ gusts, I doubt we lose power, but if we do my wife is gonna kick my ass for not buying the genny already.

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Iaias was not upgraded at all.  Same strength. 

 

22 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Surprised no upgrade.  Do they have to wait for science based evidence before making an upgrade?  Maybe politically so?   If they ever upgraded and then it was crying wolf situation it would not be good for the NHC.

I wouldn't have upgraded it. It looks better on radar but you really want recon to confirm that those winds are getting to the ground.

At any rate, it's really close, which makes no difference in the sensible wx down there, and I see no reason why it can't get to hurricane status tonight presuming it doesn't choke on dry air. 

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Start the day off with a couple tors in the state in CT around daybreak.. then sunny breaks and dews follow. Winds increase as we hit noon hour and then between 4-8 all hell breaks loose with damage like had in Irene. Another tor threat later in day with the tail and then the sting jet which is actually very modeled comes thru on backside with gusts 60-70 for a second time. That’s kind of how I see things playing out .

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Start the day off with a couple tors in the state in CT around daybreak.. then sunny breaks and dews follow. Winds increase as we hit noon hour and then between 4-8 all hell breaks loose with damage like had in Irene. Another tor threat later in day with the tail and then the sting jet which is actually very modeled comes thru on backside with gusts 60-70 for a second time. That’s kind of how I see things playing out .

Sting jet is at base of low which is to your west.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Start the day off with a couple tors in the state in CT around daybreak.. then sunny breaks and dews follow. Winds increase as we hit noon hour and then between 4-8 all hell breaks loose with damage like had in Irene. Another tor threat later in day with the tail and then the sting jet which is actually very modeled comes thru on backside with gusts 60-70 for a second time. That’s kind of how I see things playing out .

Ryan’s  forecast looks nothing Like you just outlined...but that’s par for the course, you’re in your own extreme weather world lol. Hope it verifies the way you hope?

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