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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     northern Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     southern New Hampshire
     eastern New York
     northern Rhode Island
     southern Vermont
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...In association with the north-northeastward progression of
   Isaias, thunderstorm activity will form and spread northward across
   the region this afternoon through early evening, in an environment
   conducive to the development of a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of
   Poughkeepsie NY to 30 miles east southeast of Boston MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

No bust out here.  7.22” and still coming down.

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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Those supercells south of the island are headed right towards us. ITs going to get ugly

Getting dark here now, I’m currently dragging in the houseplants, one of which already blew over in last night’s thunderstorm.

Also, am I the easternmost forum regular? I feel like I’m always the last one to see impacts with most storms.

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Here's some more rainfall for you since 1201AM this Tuesday morning!  Wantage now 1.50"  Worried about tree branches breaking. Wunderground for nw NJ and down near ABE-TTN.  

Thinking and thank that the modeling is doing well...  too far east on track the past 5 days but consensus tracks said we had a problem.  Will try and provide some brief overview images Wed morning. Credit to all the researchers and use of computers-stats. 245P/4

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 12.32.03 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 12.33.14 PM.png

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cfa said:

Getting dark here now, I’m currently dragging in the houseplants, one of which already blew over in last night’s thunderstorm.

Also, am I the easternmost forum regular? I feel like I’m always the last one to see impacts with most storms.

Gusting close to 50 now and raining sideways

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
Just now, eduggs said:

What you are experiencing is what I was concerned about further east.  Fortunately the primarily rain axis stayed west.

The further east track definitely open up the metro for stronger winds. The tor watch (while warranted) never really produced around the metro. 
 

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Prue11

Prue11

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Getting dark here now, I’m currently dragging in the houseplants, one of which already blew over in last night’s thunderstorm.

Also, am I the easternmost forum regular? I feel like I’m always the last one to see impacts with most storms.

Where are you located in Suffolk? I’m in holbrook

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted 
Special Marine Warning
ANZ345-353-355-373-375-041745-
/O.NEW.KOKX.MA.W.0073.200804T1638Z-200804T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Sandy Hook NJ to Moriches Inlet NY out 40 NM...

  Long Island South Shore Bays...

* Until 145 PM EDT.

* At 1238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  waterspouts was located 26 nm east of Shark River Reef, moving
  northwest at 45 knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Boats could suffer significant structural
           damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in
           suddenly higher waves.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Barnum Island and Island Park around 130 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for southeastern
New York.

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 7394 4065 7378 4061 7374 4062 7372
      4065 7370 4064 7364 4067 7355 4067 7339
      4069 7335 4025 7285 4003 7312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 141DEG 44KT 4013 7313
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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Here's some more rainfall for you.  Wantage now 1.50"  Worried about tree branches breaking. Wunderground for nw NJ and down near ABE-TTN.  

Thank the modeling is doing well...  too far east on track the past 5 days but consensus tracks said we had a problem.  Will try and some brief overview images ed morning. 1245P/4

 

Thanks for all your graphics.  Can you provide time frames with the totals?  Is that hourly, daily, multi day?  A few local totals (near Dover) look like they might be 2 day totals.  

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 

Special Marine Warning
ANZ345-353-355-373-375-041745-
/O.NEW.KOKX.MA.W.0073.200804T1638Z-200804T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Sandy Hook NJ to Moriches Inlet NY out 40 NM...

  Long Island South Shore Bays...

* Until 145 PM EDT.

* At 1238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  waterspouts was located 26 nm east of Shark River Reef, moving
  northwest at 45 knots.

  HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
           hazardous seas. Boats could suffer significant structural
           damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in
           suddenly higher waves.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Barnum Island and Island Park around 130 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for southeastern
New York.

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 7394 4065 7378 4061 7374 4062 7372
      4065 7370 4064 7364 4067 7355 4067 7339
      4069 7335 4025 7285 4003 7312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 141DEG 44KT 4013 7313

Cluster headed right into LI

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The further east track definitely open up the metro for stronger winds. The tor watch (while warranted) never really produced around the metro. 
 

The track ended up right over 95 which pushed the tornado threat offshore and more towards LI. Not going to make a difference in the wind department though. And many areas are going to get over 2" of rain which is more than it looked like was going to happen.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Parts of Long Island will be lucky to break .50 of rain 

Called that 2 days ago. The east side of these is never a good place for high rain amounts. You have to be lucky and be under a feeder band for a while. West of track is always where the heavy rain is. 
 

That said wind is definitely picking up here with a shower that just came through. I hear sirens in the distance too. 

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