Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

Any wobble can have a big effect on the path 

[Snowlover11]

not saying the nam isnt wrong but isnt it not a good model for tropical weather?

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

You cannot expect models to pick up on the nuances of what's going to happen. Either way, with the center passing overhead or just West, we've known for awhile the biggest threat was the wind, not the rain.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

not saying the nam isnt wrong but isnt it not a good model for tropical weather?

FYP

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

not saying the nam isnt wrong but isnt it not a good model for tropical weather?

interestingly the 3K nam was one of the few models to show a miss to Florida's east coast.    

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

interestingly the 3K nam was one of the few models to show a miss to Florida's east coast.    

A broken clock is right twice a day.

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Is it safe to say the worst of the storm will be from about 11 am tomorrow morning thru about 9 pm tomorrow night?

May be done by 5 or 6

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d rather take the 2-4” of rain over the maybe 70mph winds so it can keep drifting East, please. 

were you in Long Beach during Bertha in 1996?  How much rain and wind do you remember us getting from it?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A broken clock is right twice a day.

NAMs big win was the Jan 2016 mega snowstorm.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

May be done by 5 or 6

More likely 7-8PM.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic east of track situation like we saw with Fay

3K NAM is even further west with the 2 inch rain line over the Delaware River and west

yeah this is such a "normal" pattern for what these storms do up here, you dont even need a model to forecast it- lots of rain west of the track, lots of wind east of the track.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

More likely 7-8PM.

I should have been in the Poconos for this one lol, I would've seen a lot more rain there.

 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I should have been in the Poconos for this one lol, I would've seen a lot more rain there.

 

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

I'll take the first option if it means a much more manageable storm, as it's looking like up here further inland. 

[btcs31]

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

[HailMan06]

4 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

If I were you I'd prepare for delays, at least.

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

That flight doesnt seem likely

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

[NJwx85]

18z RGEM nails most of the area with lots of rain. Near Hurricane force winds for the SE NJ coast as well. Waiting for the rest of the run to load.

[White Gorilla]

I see a wall of rain moving up into DC and Maryland.  Is that the PRE getting going? 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

[MJO812]

Upton is getting  concerned about the winds. NYC media is also mentioning the Euro .

[uofmiami]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That flight doesnt seem likely

Surprised it wasn't cancelled already, it will be later tonight most likely.

[MJO812]

Gfs is really dry from the City east.

Very gusty winds 

[Sportybx]

The worst part of this storm . Is going to be everyone who wasn’t prepared because no media coverage. Then tomorrow 2 hours before it hits everyone is running wild for supples 

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

FYP

[IrishRob17]

My son is down near Georgetown SC, he had been underwhelmed but things may be picking up.

 

[NJwx85]

 

[White Gorilla]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

A more potent PRE than modeled? 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?