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snowlover2

June 26-29 Severe Threat

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Already getting flooding where I am right now in Arlington Heights.


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28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This arc of activity currently moving though appears to be the expected WAA/WF storms. The small cluster earlier was tied the initial passing MCV.

Activity behind this arc, around DVN, is fading with good clearing behind it.


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Yeah I am expecting to be cleared out nicely around the noon hour. Plenty of time to crank before initiation. 

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Looks like a stratiform rain event up here.  Clouds everywhere.  Typical.  Don't know what SPC was thinking putting the enhanced risk up here yesterday.  Wouldn't be bothered if the long range wasn't so dry and uneventful.  Rub it in and give me a weenie.  

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Maybe if the moisture tongue over Iowa gets up here there will be good elevated after-dark boomers.  It's just really hard to see anything surfaced based getting this far north now.  Unless the 925 mb - 850 mb winds really crank behind the current crapvection complex.

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16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not liking all these showers in the late morning.

these are elevated WAA showers so they aren't generating a cold pool.  Surface warming already occurring in SW Wisconsin

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Just now, madwx said:

these are elevated WAA showers so they aren't generating a cold pool.  Surface warming already occurring in SW Wisconsin

Is it me or is MKX radar down now for the last 20-ish minutes?

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Is it me or is MKX radar down now for the last 20-ish minutes?

it was down for about 10 mins but it's back up now.  at least on radarscope

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2 hours ago, frostfern said:

I'll take non-severe if it has good lighting.  I just don't want EVERYTHING to miss way to the south.  Need the rain.  I hate these E-W oriented setups where one row of counties gets trained while others get crap.

 

2 hours ago, tuanis said:

Luckily June has been pretty dry, but these types of orientations always get me worried.

 

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Already getting flooding where I am right now in Arlington Heights.

Certainly will PASS on this outcome. Still drying a puddle in my basement from the Flood Adv that delivered 2" a few days back.

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Even though these are WAA rain showers, it’s still cooling the surface and limiting the destabilization, at least up here in the eastern portion of the enhanced risk. Forecast high was expected to be 89° today. We have stopped at 81° and don’t see any clear indication of the temp rising this afternoon/evening with the several hours of stratiform rain approaching from the west. SPC and GRR both uncertain of the extent of the WWA rain this afternoon too. I’d say the event around here to be a little more of an isolated threat for this evening. Better chances west of Lake Michigan. 

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Klot wtf 

Good things always happen when KLOT goes down on a severe wx day.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the cell right on the nose of the MCV along the MN/IA border

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25 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Even though these are WAA rain showers, it’s still cooling the surface and limiting the destabilization, at least up here in the eastern portion of the enhanced risk. Forecast high was expected to be 89° today. We have stopped at 81° and don’t see any clear indication of the temp rising this afternoon/evening with the several hours of stratiform rain approaching from the west. SPC and GRR both uncertain of the extent of the WWA rain this afternoon too. I’d say the event around here to be a little more of an isolated threat for this evening. Better chances west of Lake Michigan. 

Destabilization will have to be entirely by advection.

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Complex setup up unfolding with several moving pieces. Liking the ENH still, but could see the eventual need for a MOD if things work out perfectly.

sample2.png.5d2bfff749ba1362f3d88e424fb0b20c.png

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Complex setup up unfolding with several moving pieces. Liking the ENH still, but could see the eventual need for a MOD if things work out perfectly.
sample2.png.5d2bfff749ba1362f3d88e424fb0b20c.png

To a novice like me these pics are really cool and informative. Especially when I sit here wondering “where” it’s at. Thank you
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5 minutes ago, madwx said:

65 mph wind gusts with the severe warned cell

the goes-16 imagery of that cell is great, really went off like a bomb and then turned instantly into a mini bow

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Complex setup up unfolding with several moving pieces. Liking the ENH still, but could see the eventual need for a MOD if things work out perfectly.

sample2.png.5d2bfff749ba1362f3d88e424fb0b20c.png

Any idea where you could see the MOD being issued?

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2 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

Any idea where you could see the MOD being issued?

Pretty much within where the SPC has the ENH risk.

Not saying it's needed, because it's not as of now. But if things worked out perfectly, could see the need for one.

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Been pretty well socked in with clouds here so far today.  If all I knew is what's happening outside my window, I'd say big red flag in terms of severe wx later.  But it is always important to look at the bigger picture and watch what is going on upstream.

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

MD out, says "tornado threat will be maximized in southern WI/northern IL."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1006.html

Gonna need to see some sun to be convinced...

Yea, not sure I agree with their overall idea there.

They seem focused on the OFB for robust/severe activity, and only make a glancing mentioned of development further west later. When in reality, and threat of robust/severe development along the retreating OFB is likely minimal, and the greater threat is with what develops west.

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