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snowlover2

June 26-29 Severe Threat

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the rotation northeast of rochelle is headed directly towards me (well, in an hour at least). curious to see if it holds together or bows out like always. 

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Helicity is 300 to 400 m2/s2 in the area of DeKalb approaching higher levels near the lakeshore.  LL lapse rates are very good just to the south of the area.

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5 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Helicity is 300 to 400 m2/s2 in the area of DeKalb approaching higher levels near the lakeshore.  LL lapse rates are very good just to the south of the area.

Dews have mixed out a little around/south of I-80 where the better heating has occurred.  But waning diurnal heating/approach of sunset may bring them back up in that zone.

chi_sfc.gif.084c8ef523e6b59430c0931236caa31b.gif

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Even with a great environment, it looks like SFC inversion as noted on 20z DKB sounding could limited wind potential north of I-88. Thermal OFB has pushed north of MDW now, and runs to ARR or so now.

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This is west of Rockford and northeast of Davenport. I am not sure if these rotation area(s) are a tornado or not.

jnvqNKi.jpg

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40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

In sort of a convective hot spot at the moment.  Towering cumulus filling the sky, with a large thunderhead just about to move in from the southwest, and another nice one in the northeastern sky.  Getting bursts of very large rain drops from passing showers underneath some of the updrafts.  This whole area is likely to fill in and organize as it heads east and through the rest of IL as the eve goes on.

That area eventually did grow/organize, and is now the severe storm cluster southeast of Sterling.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1013
< Previous MD
MD 1013 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1013
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Michigan...northern Indiana...and far
   northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 262339Z - 270045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued shortly across
   southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and far northwest Ohio.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of storms across northern Illinois
   and southern Wisconsin have recently started to congeal across
   western Lake Michigan and northern Illinois. The severe-weather
   threat (especially damaging winds) is expected to increase as these
   clusters continue to organize. In addition, a tornado or two is
   possible, especially in far northern Indiana and southern Michigan
   where surface winds remain more backed near a warm front. However,
   relatively weak surface winds will be the primary limiting factor to
   a greater tornado threat. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued by 00Z across this
   region.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 06/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   43018705 43138616 42928461 42618389 41618405 41348469
               41188591 41118670 41198695 41518727 42438723 43018705 

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Shelf is moving in. A tad north though. Can see and hear the action from here. Some nice low hanging clouds with it. 
 

watching it from I 88 and 83

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Initial storm came through here with 50-55MPH winds, and isolated tree damage. Have had a few other bursts of 40mph+ winds with a few embedded cells from time to time.

Also have been in a mini train, with 1.59" of rain in last 40mins and still coming down.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

ORD gusted to 53MPH.

KORD 270011Z 31020G46KT 1SM R10L/2200VP6000FT +TSRA BR 
    BKN012CB BKN070 OVC100 22/21 A2984 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESRR 
    FRQ LTGICCGCC OHD TS OHD MOV E P0051 T02220211
 
0.51" of rain in 11 minutes, too.

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Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 307  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
755 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN INDIANA  
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OHIO  
LAKE ERIE  
LAKE MICHIGAN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM  
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS  
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE EVENING, AS ACTIVITY NOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN  
LAKE MICHIGAN BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT,  
THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED, AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60  
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF BENTON  
HARBOR MI TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT MI. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.

 

ww0307_radar.gif

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2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

“Line” went through.  Snooze fest 

Yeah. It was still nice sitting outside feeling the wind and watching it move through to the north though 

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