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snowlover2

June 26-29 Severe Threat

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I know I’m a little south here in IKK but the sun and humidity is unrelenting. Hottest feel to the day this summer for me.

If@Hoosier is clouded in, the sun and humidity is not far from you brother

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Watch is up.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 305  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
135 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
LAKE MICHIGAN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL  
900 PM CDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON, BEGINNING IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND  
SPREADING EASTWARD. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DISCRETE  
CELLS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO, THOUGH  
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER CLUSTER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH ISOLATED  
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS EARLY, AND  
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH  
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN ANY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS.  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70  
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR  
RAPIDS IA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RACINE WI. FOR A COMPLETE  
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE  
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE  
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.  
 

 

ww0305_radar.gif

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17 minutes ago, King James said:

I know I’m a little south here in IKK but the sun and humidity is unrelenting. Hottest feel to the day this summer for me.

If@Hoosier is clouded in, the sun and humidity is not far from you brother

Getting more breaks of sun now. 

There is about a 10 degree temp spread between our locations. 

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5 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

kind of a snooze fest so far

Not really unexpected though.  Main window for severe has always been around mid afternoon into evening, so we'll see what happens in the next few hours.

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Per meso analysis, there is actually a good to great environment in place across E IA/N IL.

All of the activity that has moved through this afternoon has been elevated, thus not disrupting the environment to a significant degree.

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A nice line segment has taken shape across SW WI.

There is an axis of TCU from that line segment on WSW to Waterloo, and we'll likely see that unzip with time.

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13 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

kind of a snooze fest so far

Too much cloud cover where the better forcing/winds are. As @Chicago Storm just mentioned, eastern IA thru N IL/IN will be where the best wind potential sets up. You can see the inflow jet developing in SW WI now on KMKX. That's ~60-65MPH at 10,000' (~700 mb) w/ the warned cell. There could still be a supercell/tornado threat as new cells develop near the Quad Cities along the remnant outflow/differential heating gradient. 

1710645315_ScreenShot2020-06-26at3_46_58PM.thumb.png.41e0cdbb2799a38ef9a6813ced11a6fb.png

 

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88/67 and we’ve had sun most of the day. Would be cool if we get something poppin down this way tonight

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Nice sounding out of DVN at 20Z. Cap near 800mb and steep lapse rates in the mid-levels. The SPC algorithm suggests if that stays the same, the convective trigger temp is 90F. 

DVN.thumb.png.b047ea1a549268fef5b224f19c658dce.png

 

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Line unzipping by DBQ more now, as well as other activity in NW IL now.


.

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Some nice towers in the northern/northwestern sky.  Looks like an extension of the cells that have already taken off, and are severe warned southwest of Rockford.  So that looks to unzip southwestward towards the Clinton Iowa area, and possibly further west if it keeps unzipping.  Sitting at 83/72 here with a robust southwest breeze.

Edit:  53kft tops on the big warned cell northwest of Oregon IL.

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53 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Nice sounding out of DVN at 20Z. Cap near 800mb and steep lapse rates in the mid-levels. The SPC algorithm suggests if that stays the same, the convective trigger temp is 90F. 

DVN.thumb.png.b047ea1a549268fef5b224f19c658dce.png

 

Wish that sounding was complete to see what the cape was lol.  AFA convective temp I'd guess the mid-level speed max and nearby MCV should help lower that a bit.

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Surprise Ohio TOR

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Knox County in north central Ohio...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 611 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

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5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Surprise Ohio TOR

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Knox County in north central Ohio...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 611 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area).  Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn.

Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis.  Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.

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In sort of a convective hot spot at the moment.  Towering cumulus filling the sky, with a large thunderhead just about to move in from the southwest, and another nice one in the northeastern sky.  Getting bursts of very large rain drops from passing showers underneath some of the updrafts.  This whole area is likely to fill in and organize as it heads east and through the rest of IL as the eve goes on.

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That storm approaching DKB is right in the heart of the jet streak.

If it can maintain, which it has so far, could be a sig wind threat with it into the western metro.


.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That storm approaching DKB is right in the heart of the jet streak.

If it can maintain, which it has so far, could be a sig wind threat with it into the western metro.


.

Trailing cell may follow 88 all the way in 

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