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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The last 5 days of June are averaging 77.5degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.3[73.1].        June should end at  +2.4[73.8].

First 10 days of July are averaging 86degs., or 10degs. AN---on the GFS.

70* here at 6am, some cirrus.          76* by Noon, cumulus around.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Driest Jan1st to June 25th in NYC since 1995.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Jun 25
Missing Count
2020-06-25 15.37 0
2019-06-25 27.28 0
2018-06-25 24.23 0
2017-06-25 27.36 0
2016-06-25 17.36 0
2015-06-25 19.27 0
2014-06-25 28.35 0
2013-06-25 29.03 0
2012-06-25 17.26 0
2011-06-25 28.20 0
2010-06-25 27.65 0
2009-06-25 24.16 0
2008-06-25 23.26 0
2007-06-25 31.72 0
2006-06-25 25.73 0
2005-06-25 21.19 0
2004-06-25 20.36 0
2003-06-25 28.23 0
2002-06-25 16.90 0
2001-06-25 21.49 0
2000-06-25 21.00 0
1999-06-25 20.89 0
1998-06-25 35.18 0
1997-06-25 19.20 0
1996-06-25 25.62 0
1995-06-25 15.28 0
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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Do you folks have any idea just how nice it is/was outside early this morning? Top 5 for the year! ...and you missed it :)

I was out, G.L., hoping I’d make it to my first cup of coffee. Beautiful morning even bu UHI inner city standards. As always ....

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

more humid this morning then it was yesterday...morning..

Quite the opposite here, the air is crystally clear and it was September morn' cool and calm with the birds tweeting away as happily as could be while the buzzy flying critters were pollinating the garden. If I could order up another 75 or so of these for this year I surely would.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night.  Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed.  Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu.   Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far.  Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday  with temps again near 90 with isolated storms.

By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3  Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th.  Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend.  Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish  into the following week and beyond.  Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue.  

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night.  Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed.  Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu.   Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far.  Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday  with temps again near 90 with isolated storms.

By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3  Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th.  Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend.  Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish  into the following week and beyond.  Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue.  

We need the rain badly so I will gladly take it even if that means on the 4th

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We need the rain badly so I will gladly take it even if that means on the 4th

Hope to add something meaningful tomorrow and id expect through the week with the position of the ULL more QPF to shop up on guidance and hope it materializes to actual precip.
 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish  into the following week and beyond.  Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue.  

I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. 

Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. 

The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The most impressive heat records continue to our north. 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TODAY, JUNE 26, 2020, MARKED THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH
OF 80 DEGREES (F) OR WARMER IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS BREAKS THE 
RECORD FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES OR 
WARMER IN CARIBOU. THE OLD RECORD OF 10 DAYS WAS FROM AUGUST 
14-23, 2015. WEATHER RECORDS IN CARIBOU DATE BACK TO 1939.


THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 12 DAYS SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH A HIGH 
OF 80F OR WARMER. THIS IS THE MOST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF 
JUNE SINCE 2005 WHEN THERE WERE 12. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE 
(1981-2010 AVERAGES) IS SIX 80+ DAYS DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 13, WHICH WAS SET IN 1976.

THERE HAVE BEEN 4 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH A HIGH OF 90F OR WARMER,
WHICH IS ONE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 5, SET IN 1949. CARIBOU AVERAGES
JUST TWO 90 DEGREE DAYS EACH SUMMER. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 11,
SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1944.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler across the region under considerable cloudiness with occasional showers and thundershowers.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -13.64 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.271.

On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.693 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.802.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. 

Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. 

The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season.

If we are talking 100s there is nothing showing that currently.  Although in 2011 the 100s waited till later that month.  LGA and EWR were able to reach low 90s Mon with 850 temps of 16c.  I think we are looking overall warm to hot and should we miss widespread storms and rains Sat and between 7/1 - 7/3 the tendency will be for temps to outperform guidance on the sunnier days.  850s look  between 16c- 18c by the 3rd waiting for the flow to come around to from the west.  The heat has over performed to the north and as we see the ridge flatten and expand he week of Jul 6 - 11 may see much above normal temps.  

 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The last 4 days of June are averaging 78degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.3].       June should end at  +2.5[73.9]. 

First 10 days of July are averaging 83.5, or +7.5.      Yesterday it was +10.0.       Warning> JFK struggles with 80 till July 7-so E. winds a problem?

72* here at 6am, hazy blue.     73* by 7am and more cloud cover----drizzle arriving by 9am?

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

70/66 here as humidity has increased quite a bit.  Line of light showers coming through and wall to wall clouds for the most part back to Harrisburg.  That should get in the way of any 90s or any stronger heat that was possible.  If we get enough breaks in clouds we'll see if anyone can squeak in a 90 but doubtful.  Looks less cloudy tomorrow ahead of any scattered storms in the evening as highs again approach 90 with more of the same on Monday. 

 

Trough and ULL build down by Mon night (6/29) and lingers over or off the New England coast till Friday.  Still think with that proximity showers and rain chances are increased tue - fri.  By Friday the main ULL is lifting out allowing for a warm Jul 3 / 4th.   Another weakness is cutting off in the Mid Atlantic by 7/5 and pushing west towards TN by 7/6.  That could lead to (go figure) more onshore flow for a day or two till the 6th.  Beyond there lots of warm air over the region.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest  heat going to our north.

CAR

May...91

Jun....96

BTV

May....95

Jun.....96

EWR

May....86

Jun....92

LGA

May....86

Jun....93

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